We made it!

We finally have our first full weekend of football with college football leading into the NFL. My podcast will be focused heavily on college football so I’m going to be doing small write-ups here on the blog every Thursday/Friday with my NFL picks. If you want my NFL picks or any picks for that matter, you can always just follow in the Action app but I’ll give some brief analysis here for the people.

Thursday Night- 0.5u Jahmyr Gibbs o67.5 rushing + receiving yards- I am super high on Gibbs and without Chris Jones to stuff the run in the middle I think he gets utilized heavily and has success.

Thursday Night- 2u Chiefs/Commanders MLP (-124)- I bet this before the Kelce news but I’m just going to let it ride anyway. I still think Patrick Mahomes will be Patrick Mahomes and find a way to win even if the Lions cover.

The Cardinals might be in the biggest tank mode in NFL history, at least until (if) Kyler Murray comes back. The Commanders are a team that I am high on and they win their first home game in the post-Snyder era.

1.5u Titans +3 vs. Saints- Vrabel as a dog is one of the best bets in football. I think this Titans team is really undervalued and I am not a believer in this Dennis Allen/Derek Carr partnership in New Orleans.

1u Colts +5 vs. Jaguars- For years this was the Week 1 spot where the Jags were an autobet as dogs against the Colts. Now the turn tables… and we are doing it in the opposite direction. The Colts are not good but I think the Jaguars are being overvalued. The Colts pull the upset here.

1u Bucs +6 @ Vikings- After betting on the Colts, it’s only fair to follow up with an easy one and bet on Baker Mayfield against a 13-win team from last year. I think the Bucs are an undervalued team to start the year, as a Baker Believer. I think we see some regular season regression from this Vikings team and Bucs keep it close.

1u Falcons/Ravens MLP (-111)- I wanted to lay with the Falcons but just couldn’t quite bring myself to do it. However, I think they do win this game. I think their run game will be awesome and their defense will be improved. I expect Bryce Young to have a slow start with not much help around him. The Ravens should roll.

2u Steelers +8.5/Packers +7.5 Teaser- I have made a living off of NFL teasers over the past several seasons and this is my favorite of this week. Tomlin as a dog is the only bet better than Vrabel as a dog. I think this defense should give Brock Purdy a really tough time, especially with Purdy coming off of an injury. The 49ers have tons of weapons but the Steelers actually have the dudes to match up. I am also buying the Pickett/Pickens hype.

I think this Packers/Bears game is a coinflip and I actually lean Packers slightly, so getting them over a TD is awesome. Jordan Love looked great in preseason action and Jaire can take DJ Moore out of the game, leaving Fields in a tough spot.

1.5u Browns +8.5/Jets +8.5 Teaser- Divisional dogs are always a great spot in the NFL and both of these teams are in that spot here so getting them up over a TD is too hard to pass up. The Browns should be much improved with Watson having a full offseason and them loading up in a few key spots. Burrow also might come out slow coming off of his injury.

I want to bet the Jets so bad but this is a really tough first game against the Bills. However, Josh Allen has traditionally struggled against the Jets, especially at MetLife. I think this game will actually be pretty low-scoring and I want to say the Jets win but I feel safer that this will be a one-score game.

That’s it for the NFL! Stay tuned on the Action App and my Twitter for any last-minute plays.