If you are not absolutely licking your chops right now then I do not want to be your friend. This is the college football slate that we were dreaming about all summer. Ole Miss/Bama which could eliminate Bama from playoff contention in SEPTEMBER. Clemson/FSU which could eliminate Clemson from playoff contention in September. Ohio State/Notre Dame in an electric top-10 matchup. Colorado facing their toughest test yet in Eugene. Then there are a few more matchups that on a normal weekend would be considered top-tier like Wazzou/Oregon State.

I’m going to get into all of these games, but first… make sure to go check out The Blakey Locks Show where I will go deeper into all of these game, especially Ole Miss/Bama with my special guest Brett Merriman. My CFB blog is essentially my outline for the podcast so it will give you quick, basic notes and my picks but if you want more analysis and a great chat about Ole Miss/Bama then listen to the podcast.

However, without further ado, here is the blog version of my Week 4 betting preview.

CFB YTD: 28-28 +0.66u

All bets 1u unless indicated otherwise.

Friday Night Lights

SDSU +7 vs. Boise State- Boise has really struggled offensively in their two FBS games and SDSU has a great defense, they have just played a tough schedule against UCLA and Oregon State. Boise State is 120th in red zone offense and SDSU is 53rd in red zone defense despite the tough schedule. Close, low scoring.

Air Force -3.5 @ SJSU- Air Force is off to a great start. Their defense has been really really good and they lead the nation in rush offense. SJSU is outside the top 100 in rush defense.

Saturday

Kentucky -14 @ Vandy- No home-field advantage for Vandy. UK has had a weak OOC schedule and I think they are ready to start showing some things against an SEC team, even if it is Vandy. I am a big Devin Leary believer. AJ Swann is banged up and Vandy has looked bad even with him. They are 0-4 ATS and just travelled back from Vegas. They are run down. Kentucky will wear them out.

WKU +3.5 @ Troy- Troy is in rough shape coming off a loss to JMU. They are 0-3 ATS this year. Their defense is not as good as Troy teams of old and their offense has been nonexistent in their two FBS games. WKU struggled against Ohio State but that shouldn’t be a surprise. They lit up South Florida in Week 1 for 41 who just held Bama to 17. Austin Reed should have success.

UCLA +5 @ Utah- I love this Utah team and I have backed them more than maybe any team in college football over the last 5ish years but I am a big-time believer in this UCLA team with Dante Moore. Their offense has looked virtually unstoppable since he came in against Coastal except for some bad turnovers. Cam Rising is still questionable and this line should be closer to 3 or less without Rising. Even if Rising goes, it will be his first action of the year coming off the ACL and he could be slow out of the gates.

3u Oregon -19 vs. Colorado- The over hit last week so I finally won a bet on a Colorado game. This is the route spot that I circled though. Away from home, no Travis Hunter, a big-time vertical passing offense. Colorado could be in big trouble. How will they respond if they are getting their doors blown early? Bo Nix should have a monster game against a secondary that was already really bad with Travis Hunter and now Hunter is out.

Oregon State -3 @ Wazzou- Wazzou has had a great start to the season but I am a believer in the Beavers. I am in on DJU in this system and I think they will produce. More importantly, the OSU defense is the real deal and I think Wazzou’s offense will finally meet their match here.

1.5u Ohio State -3 @ Notre Dame- Ohio State is a team I have stayed away from entirely this year. I was very unsure about their QB situation and wanted to avoid them in these spots where they have been huge favorites. However, I also didn’t want to fade them because I knew at any point they could unlock something and they finally did that last week. Kyle McCord has officially emerged as QB1 and this Ohio State offense looks very dangerous all of a sudden. 

I am a big fan of Sam Hartman but I think this is where Notre Dame meets its match. The strong start for Notre Dame and poor start for Ohio State has this game at a number that I just can’t pass up. Notre Dame is in their fifth straight game and has played some tough opponents in NC State, Navy and even CMU. They might just be a bit more worn down than the Buckeyes who have played three cupcakes to start the year (yes, you Indiana).

MLP Maryland/JMU (-109)- As long as they let me, I will keep fading Michigan State. The late steam on MSU was hilarious to me last week as Penix was hanging 100 on them by halftime. I know he is next level, but Taulia and Maryland have a similar ability to create explosives downfield. There is no reason Maryland shouldn’t be able to run up the score early on this team too.

JMU has had two gutsy wins and is proving they can win close games. It’s a tough test to go out west to Utah State but JMU’s defensive line is legit and they should wreak havoc on a Utah State team that got sacked 5 times and has less than 60 rushing yards last week against Air Force.

Juicebag MLP Oregon/Washington/Penn State/Kentucky/LSU/Texas (-109)- These are the big favorites I trust this week to get it done even if it’s not the best spot ATS (except Kentucky who I laid the number with as well). This is always a fun one to have going throughout the day and will carry you through late night with Washington.

2u Ole Miss +7, 0.5u on the ML- I’m rolling with Lane +7. I will also sprinkle on the ML at some point, probably for about 0.5u but check the Action app for exactly what that will be.

I like to do a blog version of the picks for the people but I did a special preview of this game with Brett Merriman so if you want the preview for this game then go listen to that segment of the podcast, please!

That’s all I have for now but look out for any more adds on my Twitter @BlakeyLocks or @BlakeyLocks on the Action app. Thanks!