What a great weekend of college football. Shootouts in the Colorado/USC and LSU/Ole Miss. Near upsets of Georgia, Louisville, and Notre Dame. Some really great football all around. We were up huge early on in the day and then a bad night slate cooled things off but I’m still very happy with where we’re at.

CFB Week 5: 9-5 +2.87u

CFB YTD: 46-40-1 +5.22u

Looking at the big picture of college football after a few weeks, I have my lists of players that can still win the Heisman and teams that can still win the Natty updated.

TEAMS THAT CAN WIN THE NATTY

This is not necessarily a list of “the best teams.” This is a list of teams that I still think have a path to the CFP and have the tools necessary to win it all once they get into the CFP.

In no particular order.

  1. Georgia- The Dawgs are not the same old Dawgs but their schedule still gives them a very clear path to the playoff and they still have the dudes to beat anyone in the country (although I would not pick them to win at this point).
  2. Michigan- Michigan is an interesting one because of these top teams they have played by far the easiest schedule so far. The best team they have played all year is RUTGERS. Michigan has to play the three hardest games of their schedule in the last three weeks of the season with Penn State, Maryland, and OSU so we might not know until then how real this team is but for now, they belong on this list.
  3. Florida State- I have a lot of concerns about the consistency of this FSU team and how their defense would hold up against an elite offense. However, they should be favored in every game they play the rest of the season and if they survive they will be in the CFP. Once there, they would be underdogs to a lot of teams but have the dudes on offense to go all the way if the defense holds up.
  4. Ohio State- We are going to learn a lot about Ohio State this week. Their defense looked great against Notre Dame, but then we saw Notre Dame struggle to do anything against the Duke defense this past weekend. I still am not seeing a national championship-level offense from Ohio State and they will need to score to beat Taulia and Maryland this week. For now, they are still on this list.
  5. Penn State- I might as well roll through the Big Ten teams here. Penn State’s defense is unreal. Drew Allar has shown flashes of being the guy but has cooled off a bit recently. This offense definitely needs to improve in time for their matchups with Ohio State and Michigan but I still think they are capable of winning it all with this defense.
  6. Texas- The Horns would be the #1 seed in my mind if the CFP started today. What we saw from Alabama/Ole Miss and then Ole Miss/LSU the last couple of weeks makes me think that Texas going to Alabama and dominating the way that they did is the most impressive win in college football this year. Quinn Ewers is living up to the billing so far this year and the defense is the real deal. If they can survive against Oklahoma this week, I think they sail to a Big 12 title and CFP birth.
  7. Alabama- You just can’t count these guys out. They are the favorites to win the SEC West still and if they run the table they would make the CFP as 1 loss SEC champs. I think it’s unlikely they survive TAMU, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, AND an SEC Championship Game against Georgia… but as of now you still have to give them an outside chance.
  8. Oregon- After watching Oregon/Colorado and then USC/Colorado it should be clear the difference between Oregon and USC. Oregon defensively is just on another level entirely but still has the offensive explosiveness. It’s a tough road through this Pac-12 but if Oregon is the one to survive they could beat anyone in the country in the CFP.
  9. Washington- Washington has the best offense in the country, in my opinion. Even on their off nights, they are comfortably dropping 30+ on the road against conference opponents. This team has a pivotal bye this week and then plays the game of the season so far against Oregon the following week. That game could basically be an elimination game for the CFP and I can’t wait.

That’s the end of the list for me. USC might survive the Pac-12 (I don’t think they will) but their defense just won’t be able to win them a national championship. Even if Notre Dame survives the rest of their schedule (they won’t) they shouldn’t make it with 1 loss until they decide to play in a conference. Anyone else should not even be brought up as a possibility.

PLAYERS THAT CAN WIN A HEISMAN

This list is somewhat correlated to the list above. You basically need to make the CFP to win the Heisman these days and it will undoubtedly be going to a QB this year in a loaded class.

In no particular order.

  1. Caleb Williams- Duh. He won it last year and is putting up similar numbers this year. However, if he loses to one or both of the guys coming later on this list that could eliminate him from winning over one of those guys.
  2. Michael Penix Jr.- My man. Penix is statistically the best QB in football this year. I don’t think he will have any trouble maintaining those numbers. His Heisman push will be dependent on winning the conference.
  3. Bo Nix- The top 3 Heisman candidates are the three top Pac-12 QBs. These guys are all going to finish the year with MONSTER numbers. It is entirely possible that the Heisman race will be decided by who wins the Pac-12 between these three teams.
  4. Quinn Ewers- Taking Texas to the CFP gets you automatic Heisman hope but Ewers has also been awesome. He probably won’t be quite on the statistical level as the Pac-12 boys when the season ends but an undefeated record could make up some ground for him.
  5. Jordan Travis- Travis also has some catching up to do statistically, but if he can maneuver the rest of this schedule and get FSU to the CFP he definitely should be a finalist and could steal the award.

This is the whole list in my opinion. The other QBs from potential playoff teams (Beck, Milroe, McCarthy, Allar, McCord) just won’t have the numbers to keep up with these guys.

Stay tuned later in the week for my Week 6 preview blog and podcast! Cheers!