Folks,,, we have made it to conference championship weekend. This college football season has absolutely flown by. I am truly in disbelief that we are already here but now that we are, I can’t wait for this weekend’s games.

Here are the conference futures that I have pending for this weekend- App State (+750) to win Sun Belt, Boise State (+200) to win Mountain West, Florida State (+150) to win ACC, Washington (+375) to win Pac-12, Texas (+125) to win Big 12. 5/10 is pretty solid with a good mix of longshots that could give a huge payday and teams like FSU and Texas that are favorites to win their game with + money payouts. To be quick, I will not be hedging any of these. Let’s ride.

Here are the updated YTD numbers before we dive into the games…

It was a brutal rivalry week in CFB where I basically gave back everything I made back over the past two weeks. We are firmly back in the hole going into this weekend. Luckily, it was another great weekend in the NFL where I am absolutely red hot.

CFB Week 13: 7-10 (-3.94u)

CFB YTD: 111-108-6 (-4.92u)

NFL Week 12: 10-4 (+5.07u)

NFL YTD: 64-44-2 (+14.54u)

Football YTD: 175-152-8 (+9.62u)

I did a great podcast with Corbie (@KeepBettingCo) on Twitter and we ran through every single game. We gave angles on every game and down each matchup. Make sure to check that out but if you can’t, here are my quick notes on every game…

Friday Night

C-USA- New Mexico State (+11.5) @ Liberty o/u 56.5

  • True home game for Liberty
  • NMSU is 10-2 ATS
  • Diego Pavia is a dawg
  • NMSU lost 33-17 in regular season. For reference- teams are 26-25 in “revenge spots” in conference championship games so no real edge
  • NMSU +11.5

Oregon (-9.5) vs. Washington o/u 65.5

  • Neutral field (Vegas)
  • Washington won the initial matchup but it’s important to note that was at home, Oregon outgained them by over 100 yards but went 0/3 on 4th down while Washington went ⅔
  • Both teams should run a lot. Oregon ran really effectively in the first matchup and Washington struggles to tackle (although they did play well against Oregon State rush O)
  • Dillon Johnson for Washington had 256 yards and 4 TDs against USC in that win. They want to control the TOP and keep the ball away from Oregon.
  • Odunze is still the best player on the field on either side. When Washington is struggling offensively Penix finds a way to get him the ball and he makes the play 99% of the time.
  • Washington +10, would play at +8.5 or better, u66

Saturday

MAC- Miami (OH) (+8) vs. Toledo o/u 44

  • Neutral field (Detroit)
  • MAC underdogs are 12-5-1 ATS since 2005
  • This was a 4-point Toledo win in the regular season but Miami had Brett Gabbert (although Gabbert also played really bad)
  • Aveon Smith is more of a running QB but has changed the dynamic for Miami and you can run on Toledo
  • Miami has an elite secondary that can contain Dequan Finn. They are 5th in the nation in explosive plays allowed.
  • Miami +8

MW- Boise State (-2.5) vs. UNLV o/u 59

  • True home game for UNLV
  • Boise State is coaching with an interim HC and they have been rolling since making the coaching change
  • UNLV has an awesome offense but on defense, they can be exposed
  • George Holani and Ashton Geanty make for one, if not the best, backfield in CFB. Geanty is a monster and they should be able to run all over this team and control the TOP.
  • Would not blame anyone for taking the over, I’m letting my Boise State future ride as my action

AAC- SMU (+3.5) @ Tulane o/u 47

  • True home game for Tulane
  • SMU went undefeated in conference play and has been thumping teams along the way
  • You think of them as an offensive team but they are in the top 5 in EPA/pass allowed and get after the QB so Mychael Pratt should have issues
  • You are getting some value here because SMU QB Preston Stone is out but the backup Kevin Jennings has been really good in relief this season with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. If anything it’s different tape for Tulane and the team should rally to win it for Stone
  • I have been against this Tulane team all preseason (and was wrong) but I still think they won’t win the conference
  • SMU +5.5, would play at 3 or better

Sun Belt- App State (+6) @ Troy o/u 53.5

  • True home game for Troy
  • This should be at JMU but the NCAA is a joke
  • App State has won 5 in a row to sneak into this game- they gave JMU their only loss of the season on the road, they smashed Georgia State and Georgia Southern down the stretch
  • App State is always good in this spot as road dogs like they were at JMU
  • App State +6.5

Georgia (-6) vs. Alabama o/u 54.5

  • Neutral field (Atlanta)
  • Ladd McConkey is questionable- a big loss for Georgia
  • People are underrating Alabama… look at their scores the last few weeks before the Iron Bowl, look at Georgia’s score against GA Tech- the difference is people weren’t watching that game
  • Milroe can use the deep ball to stretch this Georgia defense that is vulnerable compared to past seasons
  • Georgia and Alabama’s defenses allow the same amount of yards per play
  • Alabama +6.5, play to +4.5

Oklahoma State (+15.5) vs. Texas o/u 55

  • Neutral field (Dallas)
  • Texas playing its last-ever Big 12 game. Would love to make a statement.
  • More importantly- they need style points. Ohio State was ranked ahead of them and they should take that as a sign of great disrespect. I think they would jump them if they win but Sark is going to be saying we need to win BIG.
  • Awful matchup for OK State. Ewers will be taking shots downfield where OK State has really struggled to defend the pass. Texas is great against the run and that is all Ok State can do with Ollie Gordon.
  • Texas -14, would play up to 17, Texas TT o34.5

Michigan (-22) vs. Iowa o/u 35

  • Neutral field (Indy)
  • No way the market will let this get to 21
  • Iowa has played one real team all year- Penn State- they lost 31-0. They will not be able to score against Michigan. Michigan can cover this spread by accident.
  • Michigan doesn’t need to “hold back” like they play OSU next week… they have a month until the playoff
  • Harbaugh is back in the locker room with a point to prove
  • The “field position game” doesn’t work against Blake Corum/Donovan Edwards and Michigan
  • Michigan -22

Louisville (+2.5) vs. FSU o/u 47.5

  • Neutral field (Charlotte)
  • America needs the Cards to win
  • Last week’s scores are lying about both of these teams
  • The 5-7 Florida Gators, playing with a backup QB, were leading FSU going into the 4th quarter last week
  • Tate Rodemaker was 12-25 for 134 yards against Florida who is 88th in the country in passing defense, Louisville is 67th for reference
  • Louisville outgained Kentucky 403-289 last week
  • Louisville +2.5 (waiting on a 3 that prob won’t come)