It’s the most wonderful time of the yearrrrrr…

It hasn’t been the dream regular season in terms of my betting record in CFB and it has been a pretty frustrating run. However, we have two massive futures in the College Football Playoff and the magical run of Bowl SZN is here. I have had an incredibly success last two Bowl SZNs. This is where the real grinders can make their money back lost in the season by just tracking injuries, opt-outs, transfers, etc.

Shoutout to the great Stuckey for putting together this article that is constantly updated, otherwise I would most likely be doomed. https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more

It’s been a crazy week so I am sorry for getting this out so last minute for today’s games but I am going to get a more extensive preview including a podcast together for the rest of Bowl SZN.

Let’s get a quick update on the records before diving into today’s games.

CFB Conference Championship Week: 10-5 (+5.45u)

CFB YTD: 121-113-6 (+0.53u)

NFL YTD:76-52-3 (+21.76u)

Football YTD: 197-165-8 (+22.29u)

Note: My picks were made days in advance for most games so lines won’t be exact. I will specify if I would still play at the current number or how to approach it but make sure to be following on Action to get plays as soon as I make them.

Georgia Southern (-1.5) vs. Ohio o/u 48.5

Bowl: Myrtle Beach Bowl (slight home-field advantage for GATA)

Major Opt-Outs: The great Kurtis Rourke is not playing for Ohio as he has announced he is transferring to Indiana (they are a win total over smash the second the market emerges), also without their #1 RB and #1 WR

Breakdown: This line has moved in Ohio’s favor for some reason. Their offense is incredibly depleted and their defense wasn’t very good to start with. GATA is capable of explosive offensive plays and yes, their defense is terrible, but Ohio shouldn’t be able to exploit that in their current form.

Pick: 2u Georgia Southern/UTSA MLP (-110)

Bonus Tip: During Bowl SZN you will see more teams going for 2 to win late rather than go to OT so if you have a short favorite under a field goal like this just take the ML to be safe and if you like the dog, take the points.

Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. ULL o/u 58.5

Bowl: New Orleans Bowl (slight ULL home-field advantage but easy trip for Jax as well)

Major Opt-Outs: None that shift the point spread

Breakdown: This game is huge for Jax State. They didn’t expect to be able to make a bowl game this year with the crooked NCAA but they are here and they will make the most of it. This has been a super competitive team all year and they simply should care more than ULL.

Pick: 1u Jax State -2.5

Miami (OH) (+6.5) vs. App State o/u 44.5

Bowl: Cure Bowl (Orlando)- not great travel for either team

Major Opt-Outs: Miami will be without Aveon Smith who QB’ed for them in the MAC Champ Game (although he was not very good and just a mere placeholder for this defense to win the game). App State will be without their stud RB Nate Noel.

Breakdown: Miami has been an awesome team this year with the best MAC defense I’ve seen in years (maybe ever) and one of the special teams units in the country. They won their conference title and have to be riding high coming into this spot. It was a disappointing loss in the conference championship game by App State and they have to be feeling a bit down about this game. Miami keeps it close with their elite D/ST.

Pick: 1.5u Miami +4.5 (even better line available now)

New Mexico State (-3) vs. Fresno State o/u 52.5

Bowl: New Mexico Bowl (obviously NMSU advantage)

Major Opt-Outs: Fresno State HC has stepped away for health reasons

Breakdown: NMSU lost in their conference title game but had their best season in program history. They will really want to win this game, especially in their home state bowl game where the crowd should be heavy in their favor. Diego Pavia and this rushing attack is the perfect group against what should be an uninspired Fresno team who I have loved fading late in the season here.

Pick: 1u NMSU/South Alabama MLP

UCLA (-4.5) vs. Boise State o/u 48.5

Bowl: LA Bowl

Major Opt-Outs: Boise State QB Taylen Green, UCLA QB Dante Moore, a few more UCLA starts across both sides of the ball

Breakdown: To be honest, I don’t like either of these teams in this bowl game. Boise State was galvanized the second half of the season to win the MW but without Taylen Green I can’t trust their offense. They should just run it 100 times with their elite RB group and hope for the best. Dante Moore is out and I am not a fan of the other UCLA QBs and also don’t trust the stability of the program at the moment. That means… under.

Pick: 1u u49.5

Texas Tech (-3) vs. Cal o/u 58.5

Bowl: Independence Bowl (travel advantage to TTU)

Major Opt-Outs: The opt-out list is huge for TTU. The good news is that their stud RB Tahj Brooks is staying and their QB Behren Morton should be 100% healthy for this game. Cal will be without their leading tackler and several other starters.

Breakdown: Texas Tech is the better team and should have a decently large crowd advantage here. Their list of opt-outs is concerning but despite a disappointing year I still think Joey McGuire is doing a good job in Lubbock and they were given unfair expectations for this season. I don’t trust Cal to score in this game and I think the better team will outlast.

Pick: 1u Texas Tech -2.5

That’s it for Saturday! Be back with much more for Monday’s games. Cheers.