We are officially into Bowl SZN now. We had our opening Saturday to get things going but now we are onto the real bowl grind of a game almost every single day through the New Year. Let’s get into it.

Bowl SZN YTD: 3-4 (-1.62u)

ODU (-4.5) vs. Western Kentucky o/u 51.5

Bowl: Famous Toastery Bowl

Key Opt-Outs: WKU’s starting QB Austin Reed will be out. 3/5 starters will be out. The backup QB will also be out so the 3rd stringer who is also the coach’s son will be playing QB. ODU will be without two key defensive starters.

Breakdown: This bowl experience is much more special for ODU. Austin Reed deciding not to play says all that needs to be said about WKU’s approach to this game. I think you get a much better effort from ODU and WKU is awful defensively. WKU wants to play a shootout and I don’t trust them to do that with the coach’s son at QB.

Pick: ODU -2.5 (still play at 4.5)

UTSA (-11.5) vs. Marshall o/u 52.5

Bowl: Frisco Bowl (huge travel advantage for UTSA)

Key Opt-Outs: Marshall will be without their starting QB. UTSA will be without their best defensive player.

Breakdown: UTSA is clearly the better team here. Marshall will be starting Cole Pennington (Chad’s son, yes) and we have seen him play already this year and it… isn’t great. UTSA should be fired up for this game in their home state of Texas. I expect UTSA to roll in this spot and Frank Harris to put on a show.

Pick: UTSA -11.5

South Florida (+3) vs. Syracuse o/u 61.5

Bowl: Boca Raton Bowl (travel advantage for USF)

Key Opt-Outs: There are no major opt-outs but Dino Babers has been fired as Syracuse head coach.

Breakdown: USF has been an awesome surprise story this year. I bet their team win total over and they absolutely smashed it in year one under Alex Golesh. I love this spot where one team has a first-year head coach building a culture vs. a team that has just fired their coach and is in reset mode. I think USF will be more motivated and should have a better crowd here.

Pick: USF +3

Georgia Tech (+5) vs. UCF o/u 66.5

Bowl: Gasparilla Bowl (slight advantage to UCF but easy travel for both teams)

Key Opt-Outs: A couple defensive starters out between both teams but nothing too major.

Breakdown: These are two fascinating teams. In year one under Brent Key, Georgia Tech pulled off big upsets over UNC and Miami and hung tough with Georgia. However, they also lost outright to Bowling Green. UCF was similar in the sense that they blew out Oklahoma State and had some other big wins, but also lost some bad games like blowing a huge lead against Baylor and getting blown out by Kansas.

I don’t think either defense is very good but the UCF defense is terrifying to back. I think Georgia Tech will be able to move it up and down the field and they were much more consistent down the stretch. I’ll take a few points with the team I trust more.

Pick: GA Tech +5

Arkansas State (-1) vs. N. Illinois o/u 53.5

Bowl: Camellia Bowl (Arkansas State travel advantage)

Key Opt-Outs: None of major note as long as Trayvon Rudolph plays for UNI which he should.

Breakdown: This is maybe the most boring bowl game on the slate but hopefully it will be close at least… Neither of these teams had particularly good seasons but scraped out a 6-6 record and made it to this game. The Sun Belt is definitely a better conference so they get some more love for their 6-6 record and their offense has shown the ability to burst out like they did against Texas State for 77. This is a spot where I will fade the bad 6-6 MAC team for a 6-6 team from another conference in a coin flip.

Pick: Arkansas State ML (-108)

Troy (-7.5) vs. Duke o/u 44.5

Bowl: Birmingham Bowl (Troy travel advantage)

Key Opt-Outs: Duke will be without HC Mike Elko, QB Riley Leonard, and a couple of defensive starters. Troy will also be without their HC.

Breakdown: Both of these teams will be without their head coaches who have left for greener pastures. Troy has an elite defense that helped them win the Sun Belt conference. Duke was having their best season in program history before Riley Leonard went down with an injury. It was then a mess of a second half of the season. They still are elite defensively but have no offense without Leonard. With no head coaches, this could be a lower-motivation bowl game on both sides. However, I do expect both defenses to continue their solid play.

Pick: u45

JMU (-2.5) vs. Air Force o/u 41

Bowl: Armed Forces Bowl ( slight Air Force travel advantage)

Key Opt-Outs: JMU’s entire team is basically in the transfer portal. However, they have said that all of the portal players will play… more on that later. Air Force has no transfers because they are a service academy and they don’t quit.

Breakdown: JMU will be without their head coach, OC, DC and several other coaches for this game. They have hired “temporary coaches” just for this game to help out. JMU has many key players including their QB in the portal but they have claimed they will play in this game. The question is how motivated will these guys be to play for temporary coaches on a team they are planning on leaving?

One team that you don’t need to worry about when it comes to motivation is Air Force. Service academies are always great to back in bowl games because they don’t have opt-outs and they are built on discipline and effort so they aren’t just going to no-show a game. People forget that Air Force was right there with JMU as maybe the best Group of 5 team in the country before getting hit with a slew of injuries. This should be the healthiest they have been in weeks and I expect them to go all out for this win.

Pick: Air Force +2.5

GA State (+1.5) vs. Utah State o/u 61.5

Bowl: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (travel advantage to Utah State)

Key Opt-Outs: Georgia State will be without their top two RBs (including a stud in Carroll), a starting tackle, a starting DB, and their top WR. Utah State has no one in the portal.

Breakdown: Georgia State lost their last 5 games of the season to finish 6-6. They are also losing a ton of talent to the portal. Utah State comes into this game winning 3 out of their last to become bowl eligible. I don’t love this game but Utah State is certainly in a better place entering this bowl game.

Pick: Utah State ML (-113)

South Alabama (-15.5) vs. E. Michigan o/u 46.5

Bowl: 68 Ventures Bowl (Mobile, AL, obviously huge advantage for South Alabama)

Key Opt-Outs: South Alabama’s top WR is in the portal, as is Eastern Michigan’s starting QB.

Breakdown: Eastern Michigan might be the worst team to ever make a bowl. This team flat out stinks. They beat Howard, Kent State, UMass by 2, and Akron with their backup QB in OT to get 4 of their 6 wins. South Alabama had a tough season but they are infinitely more talented. This is a roll spot.

Pick: South Alabama -15.5

Utah (-6.5) vs. NW o/u 41.5

Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl

Key Opt-Outs: Both QBs that have played this year are in the portal but Bryson Barnes has said that he will still play in this game. Utah has a few other starters in the portal as well. NW has one starting OL in the portal.

Breakdown: NW has been one of the surprise teams of the year. They already had what seemed to be an awful roster and then a lot of scandal with the firing of Pat Fitzgerald. They responded masterfully and were competitive all year and blew through their win total to get to this game. Utah also unexpectedly had to play the whole year without Cam Rising. They hung in for a while without him but started to slip towards the end of the season.

NW as a dog is 6-3 ATS this year. I am going to keep backing them here in a super-motivated spot.

Pick: NW +6.5

San Jose State (-10.5) vs. Coastal Carolina o/u 53.5

Bowl: Hawaii Bowl (tough travel for everyone but much tougher coming from east coast)

Key Opt-Outs: Grayson McCall is headed to NC State but has not officially announced if he is playing in this game or not. Backup QB for Coastal is also gone. Several other Coastal starters. SJSU will be missing their great TE and one solid starter on the OL.

Breakdown: Coastal is in sell mode in the portal and maybe some of those guys still play but in my mind they would just be doing that for the free trip to Hawaii. I don’t trust backing guys in the portal to give it their all for the team they’re leaving.

SJSU has been to this stadium once already this season and won 35-0 so vibes should be high. Their offense can explode and this Coastal defense is pretty trash. I doubt McCall plays and I think SJSU rolls.

Pick: SJSU -9.5

That’s all for this week! Everyone have a great Christmas and I will be back on the 26th with the next round of previews. Cheers.