Welcome back, folks. Sadly, this has been the most disappointing bowl season of our lifetime. The opt-outs, transfers, etc. have hit a fever pitch and for the first time, it really has detracted from the product we are seeing on the field. However, things might finally be taking a turn as we saw four pretty fun games yesterday with Arizona/Oklahoma being the cherry on top.

Our bowl record is solid as well- now at 16-13 +2.73u with 13 games to go including the CFP. Even outside of the playoff, there are some exciting games still left to come where both teams should care to a certain degree. I am going to cover all 11 games leading up to the CFP in this preview. On NYE, I will be releasing a CFP preview podcast and blog just diving into my thoughts on the semifinals. Enjoy!

(If you are reading this on Friday morning/afternoon, only the four Friday games will be written up. The article will be updated with all 11 games by Friday night.)

Gator Bowl- Clemson (-3.5) vs. Kentucky o/u 44

Opt-Outs of Note: Clemson will be without their #2 WR Beaux Collins, their stud safety Mukuba, stud CB Wiggins, and the heart and soul of their defense in Trotter.

Clemson will be missing at least five starters in this game, some of them of massive significance. Meanwhile, Kentucky seems very motivated for this game and even RB Ray Davis who is headed to the NFL Draft will be playing in this game. Stoops is a great bowl coach and I expect Kentucky to be pumped up for this game.

Pick: Kentucky +5, 0.5u u46.5

Sun Bowl- Oregon State (+6) vs. Notre Dame o/u 40.5

Opt-Outs of Note: This game had the potential to be a really fun bowl game but the opt-outs have been out of control. Oregon State’s head coach is gone and several other staff members have left as well. DJU and backup QB Aidan Chiles have both opted out of this game so it will be down to QB3 for the Beavs. Their stud RB Martinez is suspended for the game after a DUI arrest and they will be without multiple OL starters, their starting TE, and WR.

For Notre Dame- Sam Hartman and Estime opted out, as well as several OL starters and secondary starters.

Both teams will be without basically all of their major pieces and this game should be gross and nasty. We have seen this before this Bowl SZN and the move is to just bet the under and check the score when the game is over.

Pick: u41.5

Liberty Bowl- Memphis (+10) vs. Iowa State o/u 57.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Memphis will be without two starters on their OL which could mean big trouble against an athletic defense. They will also be without two starters in the secondary. Iowa State’s only really major opt-out is at CB but they will also be thin in the RB room.

Iowa State was one of the surprise teams of the season after a messy offseason. Matt Campbell continues to prove how great of a coach he is by getting this team to a bowl game and this group should be really motivated to win one more together. That is proven by the minimal opt-outs on the roster. Memphis’ defense has tons of issues and without two starters in the secondary, the Cyclones should roll here.

Pick: Iowa State -9.5

Cotton Bowl- Missouri (+4.5) vs. Ohio State o/u 49.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Missouri’s entire team is playing except for two injured players. They are full go for this game. Ohio State will be without Kyle McCord, Marvin Harrison Jr, WR Julian Fleming, and their starting DT. TE Cade Stover is playing but is dealing with a knee injury and “doesn’t know how much he will play” which means I expect him to be very limited.

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the Bowl SZN. The line movement has been bizarre in this game because the early big/sharp money hammered Missouri down from +3.5 and pushed them out to being small favorites. Now over the last couple of days, there has been a major buyback on Ohio State which I don’t quite understand because there have been no major opt-outs for Missouri announced over the last few days.

I am slightly thrown off by the Ohio State line movement, but I am not letting it faze me from Missouri as one of my favorite spots of Bowl SZN. This was a breakout year for Drink and this program and they are trying to prove a point by having everyone play in this game. Not a lot of guys are transferring out of this program because it is clearly building up in the right direction. They want to make a statement on a national stage by beating the Buckeyes here and I think they are more than capable.

The Ohio State offense was completely dependent on ‘throw it to Marvin and pray’. MHJ will be out for this game and so will Kyle McCord so… so much for that. I didn’t love McCord but I like Devin Brown even even less. We learned McCord wasn’t all that impressive and he beat out Brown for the QB1 job for a reason. I think Missouri’s defense will cause Brown problems and Ohio State will struggle to move the ball through the air. I love the Tigers here and no steam can change my mind (late steam has been BAD this Bowl SZN so far for what it’s worth).

Pick: 1.5u Missouri +3.5, 0.75u Missouri ML +175

Peach Bowl- Ole Miss (+4.5) vs. Penn State o/u 48.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Ole Miss will be without a starting EDGE and that is about it. Penn State will be without two starters on defense but more importantly, Manny Diaz.

This is one of the bowl games I was most excited about entering Bowl SZN and I’m happy to see there are minimal opt-outs. These two teams are mirror images of each other. Penn State under James Franklin has been a consistently really good team but has never had the offense to beat the big dogs in Michigan and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin has been consistently really good but has never had the defense to beat the big dogs in Alabama and Georgia.

Ole Miss has definitely improved defensively this year compared to past seasons under Lane. The big question is which Drew Allar will we see? Drew Allar cooked some bad teams late in the season but in the big games against Michigan and Ohio State, he just didn’t have it. Ole Miss’ defense doesn’t stack up to those teams but Pete Goulding should have a good gameplan with so much time leading up to this game.

To be honest, there is no world in which I would back a James Franklin team over a Lane Kiffin team. This is a principle play, but I also believe that Ole Miss will be able to score and Penn State won’t be able to keep up with Drew Allar. All aboard the Lane Train.

Pick: Ole Miss +5

Music City Bowl- Auburn (-6.5) vs. Maryland o/u 47.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Auburn will be without three starters on defense. Maryland will be without Taulia and a starting TE, LB, and CB.

Billy Edwards Jr. will be starting at QB for Maryland with Taulia out. Edwards is a 3-star recruit with just 50 career pass attempts so I expect him to be a significant drop off from Taulia. Auburn is 31st in the nation in scoring defense and that is against elite SEC competition.

Auburn was very Jekyll and Hyde offensively this season. Their best games bizarrely came against Georgia and Alabama while they were non-existent against New Mexico State. I do think Auburn will be able to run the ball on Maryland to a decent level of success.

I bet Auburn before the Taulia opt-out and got a great number in Auburn -2.5. I don’t like laying this high of a number with Auburn and I would actually lean towards the under in this game or pairing Auburn in an MLP with a team like Tennessee or maybe someone in the NFL this weekend.

The Pick: Auburn -2.5 (at current number lean Auburn MLP with Tennessee and/or u47.5)

Orange Bowl- Georgia (-20.5) vs. Florida State o/u 44.5

Opt-Outs of Note: I don’t have all day so let me be clear- Florida State’s entire team has opted out. They will have a record-low number of scholarship players and their starting QB will be Brock Glenn, not Tate Rodemaker. They won’t have any of their top weapons on either side of the ball with the likes of Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell, Trey Benson, Jared Verse and more.

Georgia of course has some opt-outs but not nearly the amount as FSU. Most importantly, Carson Beck will be playing QB, both of their top RBs will be playing, and all of their top WRs will be playing. Outside of Brock Bowers, they should be full go on offense. Barring any last-minute news, they also seem to be playing most of their defenders.

Normally, this is the SEC runner-up who missed the playoff spot that has been an auto-fade the past few years but that does not seem to be the case at all this year. Florida State was the one “snubbed” from the CFP with their entire team choosing not to play in this game. The amount of Georgia players that are participating in this game makes it clear that they care and want to close out their season and careers with a big win.

This is another game where I got great CLV with Georgia -14 before the wave of FSU opt-outs but I would still lay at -21 or better. This is an absolute route spot.

Pick: Georgia -14 (play at current number)

Arizona Bowl- Toledo (+3.5) vs. Wyoming o/u 44.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Normally you don’t see a lot of opt-outs from MAC teams but Toledo will be missing their stud QB Dequan Finn who is transferring out. They will also be without their #1 offensive lineman and their stud RB Peny Boone.

Wyoming will be missing a starting CB and that is about it.

This is the last game for legendary Wyoming coach Craig Bohl. He has been the HC at Wyoming for a decade and these players love him. I think Wyoming will majorly get up for this game to send their coach off on the right note. Between that and the lack of offense Toledo will have with no Finn/Boone, I think this is a great spot for Wyoming to win the game. If you can get a -3 I would take that but I will be pairing them with LSU in an MLP to avoid worrying about the hook.

Pick: Wyoming/LSU MLP (+100)

ReliaQuest Bowl- Wisconsin (+10) vs. LSU o/u 55.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Wisconsin will be without Braelon Allen, their starting center, a starting CB, and potentially a few other skill position players. LSU will be without Jayden Daniels most notably but they seem to actually have most players playing in this game which is quite surprising.

LSU should roll in this spot. I am a believer in Nuss and don’t think there will be that big of a drop-off from the Heisman winner. They have plenty of depth at skill positions even if Nabers is on a snap count. Defensively they have had major issues this season but Wisconsin’s offense is a joke and will be even worse here without Allen and other pieces.

Pick: LSU/Wyoming MLP (+100)

Citrus Bowl- Iowa (+6) vs. Tennessee o/u 35.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Iowa is basically playing everyone that is healthy but they have lost a few key players to injury over the past few weeks of the season. Tennessee will be without a few defensive starters as well as their starting RB and their QB Joe Milton.

Iowa playing on New Year’s Day with a total in the 30s is a tradition unlike any other.

Despite Milton being out, this is the start of the Nico era in Knoxville and that is exciting for Vawls fans. Nico is a massive upgrade over Milton in my mind. I understand that might not click instantly but Nico is built for a Josh Heupel offense and I think he will have some success in this game, even against an elite Iowa defense.

This Iowa offense is soooooooo bad. We all know this. This Vawls defense is improved from past years and even without a couple of key starters, Iowa should really struggle to score the ball. Ultimately, I think Nico will be able to convert a couple of big plays and there is no chance that I am backing Iowa and rooting for that horror show.

Pick: Tennessee -6.5

Fiesta Bowl- Liberty (+16.5) vs. Oregon o/u 67.5

Opt-Outs of Note: Liberty without their stud CB in Hodge. As of now, Oregon’s only announced opt-outs of significance are their starting C, #1 WR, and #1 CB. These are of course key losses but Bo Nix and Bucky Irving will be playing and hopefully, that sets the tone to keep other key players in this game.

To be frank, I think Oregon rolls here. Liberty’s defense is shotty and without their #1 CB, Oregon should score a touchdown on every drive. Bo Nix and Irving should shred them on the ground and then take their shots through the air. Liberty might get some points up but this Oregon defense is really good.

Liberty probably will be more motivated because this is a huge spot for them but I think Bo Nix playing will set the tone for the whole team and Oregon will come to play.

Pick: Oregon -17