This is one of the most hyped-up QB classes in a long time so I made a tier rankings of the group. This is not the order in which I think they will be drafted but just how I rate them personally. I’m sure any response to this will be rational.
Tier 1 (Clear #1)- Caleb Williams
Give me the dress, give me the pink nails, give me the lip gloss, who cares. Every year draft analysts try to comp someone to Mahomes and they aren’t even close. Caleb Williams is the closest thing to Mahomes that we have seen at the collegiate level. There is no reason why he shouldn’t have an incredible NFL career.
Tier 2 (Clear #2)- Drake Maye
Drake Maye has been QB2 in the draft for basically two years and then the last few weeks things shifted to Daniels being the consensus #2 pick. I truly don’t get how someone stat padding against bad defenses while throwing to two first-round pick WRs is going to be the #2 pick but here we are. Drake Maye can make every throw on the field, has really good athleticism, and is yet to reach his full potential. The fact that the Patriots will most likely get him at #3 makes me sick.
Tier 3 (Underrated)- Spencer Rattler, Michael Penix Jr.
Everybody knows I love these guys. Michael Penix might have the best arm in this entire draft class, even better than Caleb. His issues are age and injury-related but there is already so much risk when drafting a QB that honestly who cares? Maybe he will tear his ACL again in two years? It’s certainly possible. But it’s also possible that any other QB gets hurt so I will take the guy that I don’t consider to be a bust.
I do think Penix needs to come into a good situation (as most QBs do) but if he has a good OL and a couple of weapons, he could light the league on fire. It seems like the Vikings are deep on JJ McCarthy but I think if Penix landed in Minnesota it would be the perfect fit. His current consensus projection is going to Vegas which could still be solid and he’d look great in black.
Rattler is so underrated. He has all the tools and at South Carolina, he played on a team with limited weapons and a horrific offensive line. Xavier Legette ended up being an absolute baller but that is partially due to Rattler making him look good. I think Rattler will be one of the steals of the draft for whoever gets him in Round 3ish.
Tier 4 (Overrated)- Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix
Here is the controversial section. I don’t like any of these guys. I have made my thoughts clear on Daniels and the way he runs- I think he is way more of an injury risk than Michael Penix. People are making the Lamar Jackson comp but Jackson is way more built, way quicker, and has a better arm.
Justin Fields is a closer comp for Daniels in today’s NFL but as a passer, Fields has a better arm than Daniels for my money. There is no way Daniels combined with the Washington Commanders franchise will be a success.
JJ McCarthy is probably the most fascinating player in this draft. He’s a national champion, he beat depression with Google, and he had a good combine, but he also doesn’t hold up on tape. He got away with a lot in college by having the best offensive line and run game in all of college football. On a bad team like the Patriots or Giants where he needs to make big-time throws to win games, I just don’t see it. He could prove me wrong… but I don’t think he does.
Bo Nix speaks for itself. He is worse than Daniels and McCarthy by a good margin. Sean Payton and Denver drafting him would be so perfectly hilarious. He has no NFL future as a starter.
Tier 5 (Worth a late-round pick)- Michael Pratt, Taulia Tagovailoa, Sam Hartman
Pratt is a guy I like a lot as a late-round flier. He obviously played at a smaller program but the jump he made from his 2022 season to 2023 was really impressive. I think he could be a guy at the NFL level and is worth a shot.
Taulia gets a lot based on name value from me here. He makes throws that most guys in this draft class can’t make. The problem is he also just doesn’t seem to have a great football IQ. He makes too many mistakes and doesn’t see the field great. However, if a great offensive coach gets a hold of him maybe, just maybe they can pull the raw talent out of him and make him an NFL QB.
Sam Hartman is Sam Hartman. He won’t be a Super Bowl-winning starting quarterback but if he is a backup in the league for 10+ years I won’t be remotely surprised.
Tier 6 (If he bounces back from injury)- Jordan Travis
Jordan Travis is a fascinating case. He was having a phenomenal year before his injury and could easily be up there with the likes of Penix or Bo Nix if he didn’t get hurt. However, I think he is worth a pick form someone that is in no rush to start a rookie. Personally, I would love for the Jets to take him late and let him sit for a year or two behind Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor.
Tier 7 (G5 guys)- Austin Reed, Carter Bradley
These are the only G5 guys that I think have a real shot. It’s a long shot that either has sustained NFL success but I like them both on paper. Reed is a level above Bradley when it comes to NFL potential.
Tier 8 (I’ve had a fetish for them in the past)- Phil Jurkovec, Devin Leary
I couldn’t leave these boys off. I’ve lost countless dollars betting on them over the years and would love to do it in the NFL just once or twice.
Tier 9 (Wild Card)- Jayden de Laura
Is this guy even still in the Draft? He has some of the best highlights of maybe anybody in this class but has gone totally under the radar. He was a phenom at Wazzou, had a solid first year at Arizona, was super hyped-up entering the 2023 season, and then just vanished. He then looked like he was gonna transfer before declaring for the Draft. He participated in Arizona’s pro day but I have not seen him mentioned in any news article or QB rankings anywhere.
All of that being said, he has shown more raw talent than most of the guys on this list so if someone scoops him as a UDFA maybe something’s there?
Tier 10 (Can Throw Far)- Joe Milton
I can’t wait to watch Joe Milton in preseason next year wherever he lands. The guy can throw the football to the moon but he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. A sad, sad combo. Someone will take a chance on him for his physical traits but he will never succeed at the pro level.
Tier 11 (Bet Him to Win a Heisman in 2020)- Kedon Slovis
Just had to mention this one because it’s crazy what happened to his career. The golden boy at USC who was a Heisman favorite in 2020 and is now at the bottom of the pile in the 2024 NFL Draft. What a fall from grace.
Tier 12 (Running Backs)- Spencer Sanders, John Rhys Plumlee
Running backs.
I am not a mock draft guy by any means but ignoring some of the bullshit rumors and taking in all of the info I’ve seen from the most reliable people… here is my prediction of how the top 15 will fall tonight:
- Bears- Caleb Williams
- Commanders- Jayden Daniels
- Patriots- Drake Maye
- Cardinals- MHJ
- Chargers- JC Latham
- Giants- Malik Nabers
- Vikings (trade up with Tennessee)- JJ McCarthy
- Falcons- Dallas Turner
- Bears- Rome Odunze
- Jets- Joe Alt
- Titans (trade back with Minnesota)- Fashanu
- Broncos- Bo Nix (wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos trade back assuming they can get Nix later)
- Raiders- Michael Penix Jr.
- Saints- Taliese Fuaga
- Colts- Brock Bowers
Let’s have a great night! This seems like the craziest draft in a long time in terms of nobody knowing what will happen after #1 and there are a lot of major offensive stars from big schools in the mix at the top. Can’t wait.
Blakey Locks 