CFB Week 7 is upon us and we finally have some weekday football. We’ve had a sprinkle of Thursday and Friday games but now we finally have the most glorious event in all of sports- Tuesday night college football. Then we have a handful of games to follow it up on Thursday and Friday. The CFB season has not gotten off to the start I wanted but the season has really come down to missing on the two biggest plays of the season and that has swung us from positive units to negative (currently -3.22u on the season). However, that is a small deficit for what I would consider a bad start to the season and we have a ton of football ahead of us to gain it back and it starts tonight.
App State (-4.5) @ ULL o/u 57
The Ragin’ Cajuns have been one of the more disappointing teams in the country. They were a team that went to the Sun Belt Championship Game (the game was cancelled) and upset a really good Iowa State team last year and then returned their head coach and almost the entire roster to the 2021 season. However, they have really struggled this year with a 1-4 ATS record and some close shaves against inferior Sun Belt opponents they should be blowing out. Meanwhile, App State is 3-2 ATS and one of those lost covers was them winning by 34 with a 35.5 point spread where their foot was off the gas late.
ULL upset App State last year for the first time in years and I can guarantee App State has had this revenge spot circled all summer. They are one of the best running teams in the nation and the Cajuns’ defense is an absolute dumpster fire. I think the ‘Neers will be able to run the ball all over them and control the clock. I think this number has gotten too high so the best angle is to pair them with a big favorite in a MLP. Personally, I’m rolling with Tulsa over South Florida but if there is another favorite in that range you like, go for it.
Pick: 1.5u App State/Tulsa MLP (+102)
Navy (+10.5) @ Memphis
This Memphis team has no interest in playing defense and that is bad news against a service academy. Navy is obviously an elite rushing team (6th in the nation) and I think those long, draining drives will wear down this Memphis defense that already struggles to stop anybody. This Memphis offense does have some firepower but where they really struggle is in the red zone converting long drives into touchdowns (70th in the nation). That is a huge problem against service academies based on their style of play. In general service academies are great as big dogs and Navy is 27-17 (61.4%) ATS as road dogs under Ken Niumatalolo. I like them to hang around all game and also have great backdoor potential if necessary.
Pick: 1.5u Navy +10.5
Syracuse +14.5 vs. Clemson
Clemson is a shocking 0-5 ATS this season and haven’t been relatively close with two outright losses as favorites. This team is simply a dead dog at this point and I will continue to fade them until I see something different from them on the field. Clemson has a much better pass defense than rush defense and that plays right into Syracuse hands as they are an elite rushing team and that also helps with a big underdog to have longer possessions and drain clock. Syracuse is also an elite team when it comes to converting on 3rd down (4th in the nation) and Clemson is awful in that aspect (99th in the nation) mostly because 3rd downs largely come down to effort and Clemson shows none. Dino Babers has also been good against Dabo historically, Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in their L4 against Clemson including an outright upset and close 4-point loss when they were much bigger dogs than this. Go Orange.
Pick: 1.5u Syracuse +14.5
I think all three of those games are worth a solid bet this week and if they all hit we’ll be into positive money on the year entering Saturday. I’m excited to get some positive momentum going and have a strong second-half of the season.