Bowl SZN Record: 6-5 +1.48u
CFB YTD: 136-117-5 +7.79u
Bowl SZN was off to a great start until that ODU touchdown that ended up being a touchback. That was a really brutal loss but Bailey Zappe, UAB, and LIberty all put on unbelievable displays to carry the weight so far. I’m still feeling good moving forward and I’m covering the games all the way through Christmas here so if you think you’ll be away from the phone/not be able to look into games but still want action while the TV is on in the background, then this is the preview for you. Let’s get into it.
Kent State (+3) vs. Wyoming o/u 58.5
The return of the MAC. The MAC is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this Bowl SZN including Toledo losing as 10-point favorites to start the SZN off. However, I think this is a great chance for the league to pick up their first W of the postseason. Wyoming is a total Jekyll and Hyde team- they blew out Utah State who won the MW conference and destroyed Oregon State in their bowl game but Wyoming only beat the Huskies of Storrs, CT by 2 points. Wyoming also only beat Montana State (?) by 3 and lost outright to an AWFUL New Mexico team and got demloished by Hawaii at home.
On the other side, Kent State were who they were for the most part. They beat all the teams they should have beaten in their conference and their two MAC losses came to Western Michigan and Miami (OH) (two bowl eligible teams). They played a really tough out of conference schedule against Iowa, Maryland, and Texas A&M and beat the two other top teams in the conference (M-OH, UNI) in the regulat season. I think this is a battle tested team that really wants to win a bowl game for their senior QB Dustin Crum who won the first bowl game in program history in 2019. Roll Flashes.
Pick: 1.5u Kent State +3
UTSA vs. SDSU (-2.5) o/u 49
I ended up on the wrong side of this # after UTSA’s monster RB Sincere McCormick decided to opt out of this game, however I still like the Roadrunners to win this game. SDSU had a great season but then had a massive COVID outbreak and got blown out in the MW Championship Game. Even though most players should be back and healthy by now, due to a lack of practice time I don’t know if this team will still be mentally present for this game. On the other side, UTSA should be highly motivated- they just had their best season in program history and have a chance to finish it off with the program’s first ever bowl win (they lost by 3 to ULL in their bowl last year). I think UTSA will be the much more motivated side and despite their stud RB missing, have more talent on offense to take care of business here.
Pick: 1.5u UTSA -2.5
Missouri vs. Army (-4) o/u 57.5
Army rolls here. This is one of my top-5 favorite plays for Bowl SZN. Missouri is an SEC team off of a disappointing season which in the past has equaled bowl game losses/non-covers. Missouri has an open QB competition going into this game which shows the current state of that team. Service academies are always a great bet in bowl SZN and under Jeff Monken, Army is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowl games. Missouri is bad against the run and at tackling which is a recipe for disaster. Army is probably very pissed off after their loss to Navy and should take it out on the Tigers here.
Pick: 2u Army -3.5 (would play at current #)
North Texas (+3) vs. Miami Ohio o/u 54.5
North Texas has been a WAGON the last few weeks of the season. They covered 8 of their L9 including their L6 straight and also won their L5 SU including big wins over Rice, UTEP, and UTSA. This game is also in Frisco which is just down the road from UNT campus so I think the team has a ton of momentum and their fans will fill the stadium for this game. On the other side, Miami had a super deflating loss the last week of the season against Kent State to miss out on the MAC Championship Game. I think these two teams have totally different attitudes going into this game and this UNT rushing attack which is 4th in the nation in YPG should control the game against a Miami defense that is 70th defending the rush and just gave up over 300 ground yards to Kent State in their season finale. Go Mean Green.
Picks: 1.5u NT +3, 1u NT ML +150
UCF (+6.5) vs. Florida o/u 55.5
Stud RB Isaiah Bowser who has missed the last few games is expected to return for this game for UCF. Florida is obviously in flux with Dan Mullen’s departure from the program and the coaching staff has been in total disarray as certain people won’t be staying on staff under Billy Napier but part of Billy Napier staff stayed behing to help ULL transition and play their bowl game. So basically their whole staff is broken apart and multiple key players are transferring or opting out for the NFL draft. My biggest worry going into this game was Florida QB Anthony Richardson just putting up a fuck you game to announce himself on the scene but he is expected to miss the game after getting knee surgery which means our old pal Emory Jones is getting the start even though he is entering the transfer portal. I think we see a weak, unprepared effort from UF and in Gus Malzahn’s first year at UCF I think he would really love to win this game for the “culture.” Also, UCF has this weird narrative that UF has been dodging playing them so I think they have a weird chip on their shoulder in this matchup.
Pick: 1u UCF +6.5
Memphis (-7.5) vs. Hawaii o/u 56
Hawaii backed into this bowl game with a 6-7 record but their program is in disarray at the moment. Multiple reports have come out saying that their head coach, Todd Graham, shows favoritism to certain players and verbally abuses the players he doesn’t like. Along with these reports Hawaii’s starting QB and RB have entered the transfer portal and won’t play. Hawaii also has a bad secondary and Memphis’ passing attack should light them up. I think this is a route and I would still bet Memphis at current # despite how early I got this (hopefully you did too). Over got hurt by players opting out but luckily I played it small (would not bet over at current #).
Picks: 1.5u Memphis -3.5, 0.5u o60
Georgia State (-4.5) vs. Ball State o/u 50.5
I love this Georgia State team. Their head coach Shawn Elliott is an electric factory and his players absolutely adore him. I bet the GA State win total over this year which cashed and I backed them a bunch throughout the season. Against a MAC team with inferior talent, I think Elliott gets his guys up for this game and they roll against Ball State.
Pick: 1.5u GA State -3.5 (would play at current #)
BONUS PICK: 1u Memphis/GA State MLP (-106)
That’s it all the way through Christmas day! I’ll have the next round of games previewed either late Christmas Day or early on the 26th. Hope everyone has a great holidays and we can keep making some cash.