Halloweekend is here. It is the final college football weekend of October which means after this weekend there is only one month of regular season college football left. We must treasure these final weekends of gambling for 14 straight hours on a Saturday. I am ready to hammer one big winning weekend and I feel like this one is it. I like the board a lot and think we could run it up this week. So without further ado, let’s get into the games.
CFB YTD: 84-73 (53.5%) -4.38u
Ohio State @ Penn State (+15.5) o/u 61
Penn State proved me wrong last week by steamrolling Minnesota. They kept their season alive so maybe they will actually put up a fight here. I like what Penn State can do defensively against CJ Stroud so this game really comes down to what we get from Sean Clifford (like every Penn State game for the past decade). I think Clifford could perform well at home and do enough to keep the Nittanys in this game.
Pick: 1u Penn State +15.5
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (-1.5) o/u 56
My lord is Oklahoma State’s defense bad. They had no business winning that game against Texas last week other than the fact that Quinn Ewers had the yips to the max. Kansas State should have won against TCU but they were down to their 3rd string QB who just didn’t have it. Adrian Martinez is a game-time decision for this game but I like the backup who should be good to go here. If Martinez can play this line will quickly shoot up before kickoff but I like it regardless.
OK State had an early bye so they’re coming into Manhattan off of four straight tough conference games. I think Kansas State will be fresh and I think they are the better defensive team. Deuce 4 Heisman.
Pick: 1.5u Kansas State -1
Kentucky (+11.5) @ Tennessee o/u 51
This game can go one of two ways in my opinion. Kentucky will try to play Kentucky football (defense, run, slow pace) and Tennessee will just continue to put up TD drives and Kentucky just won’t be able to keep up by the 4th quarter. Or Kentucky tries to play Tennessee football (offense, pass, fast pace) and they will get blown out early. I don’t think they have the weapons to hang with the Vols in a true shootout.
So, regardless of Stoops’ game plan, I think Tennessee will get theirs offensively and set up a huge matchup in Athens next week.
Pick: 1u Tennessee -11.5
Friday Night Lights- 1u BYU -3 vs. ECU- BYU’s defense is dreadful but I’m buying low on them here. Just a couple of weeks ago BYU were 1-point home favorites against Arkansas and now they are only 3-point home favorites against ECU? I’m an Ahlers guy but I think BYU scores too many at home.
1.5u Oklahoma ML (-110) @ Iowa State- The Sooners bounced back from their 3-game losing streak with a double-digit win against Kansas last week. The offense looks much better with a healthy Gabriel back but the defense is still a tragedy. Luckily, Iowa State does not have the fire-power to really exploit their bad defense. I think Oklahoma scores enough to get a little win streak going here.
1.5u WVU +7.5 vs. TCU- I love this TCU team but they have been insanely fortunate. They have needed to force major comebacks against backup QBs the past couple of weeks to stay perfect. I think JT Daniels can expose their secondary here and this will be a tough spot for TCU off of so many huge emotional game.
1u Penn State +15.5 vs. Ohio State- see above
1.5u Notre Dame +8.5/Texas A&M +8.5 Teaser- TEASING IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS WRONG AND BAD AND SAC-RELIG AND I AM DOING IT ANYWAYS. This is an incredibly square move but this was too perfect for me. I really like the spot for both of these teams but don’t trust either enough to actually win a football game. However, I think both of these games will be one-possession losses at worst so I’m taking my chances and breaking my #1 rule.
1.5u Florida +22.5 vs. Georgia- This one is just a feel game. I think AR15 is due to give us a show on the national stage and I am still not 100% sold on this Georgia team. They have Tennessee on the schedule next week and I don’t think they will overlook their rival but that has to be weighing on some minds in Athens. This game should be high scoring and Florida will do enough to stay within the number.
1u UMass +2 vs. NMSU- NMSU should not be favorites against anyone. That’s it.
1.5u Wake Forest -3.5 @ Louisville- This is exceptionally square and I love it. I think Wake is still being undervalued by the market. Sam Hartman is the absolute man and this offense can hang with anybody. They really should have beat Clemson if they did we would be talking CFP for the Deacs. I think they keep rolling the rest of the way.
1.5u Kansas State -1 vs. OKST- see above
1u Nebraska +8 vs. Illinois- The Illini are having a monster year and should win the B1G West but I think they are due for a slip-up. Since getting blown out by Oklahoma in their first game without Scott Frost, the Huskers have really settled in. They got good wins over Indiana and Rutgers and went down to the wire @ Purdue to prove themselves as a middle of the pack West team. This should be a great environment at home for the Huskers to try to make a good memory from this season.
1.5u UCF ML (-110) vs. Cincy- After playing exactly one game outside of the state of Florida (and losing) UCF is back at home for a game that could decide who makes the AAC Championship Game. I think Cincy has some issues and UCF will be able to hang a big number here at home.
1u Cal +17.5 vs. Oregon- Cal as a home dog. People are saying Oregon 4 the Playoff and Bo Nix 4 Heisman which means it’s time to fade.
1u Mizzou/SC u47- The Cocks are ranked and they won a huge game last week against TAMU. The crowd should be insane for this game once again and I think the defense will feed off of it again. Mizzou’s offense is awful but they can stop the run for South Carolina. I think this is a very low-scoring game and SC finds a way to win.
1u Tennessee -11.5 vs. Kentucky- see above
1u Michigan State +22.5 @ Michigan- Mel Tucker has owned Harbaugh. Sparty had a nice bye week after a win over Wisconsin and I think they will be ready for this game. This is another feel one like Florida. Keep these rivalry games close.
That’s it! Enjoy the weekend brothers and sisters.