And. Here. We. Go.

355 days I wrote a blog with my way too early futures that I placed on this college football season. Georgia had just lifted their second straight national title and I was immediately ready to focus on who would be contending for the national title in 2023-24. Here is what I had to say about a certain Washington Huskies squad:

I was a believer in this team last season and I knew after the way they finished 2022 that they were destined to hit new heights. Michael Penix Jr. was the worthy Heisman winner in my eyes but despite that, Washington cashed our futures to win the conference at +375. More importantly, they made the College Football Playoff as the #2 seed.

355 days after giving out 66/1, 50/1, etc. on Washington, I am writing this from a hotel room in New Orleans with tickets to see the Huskies play in the CFP semifinal tomorrow. The good news for me?? I also have a Texas 22/1 future. I have been betting for a long time now and have had some fun future runs and teams that I bet on almost every week but I have never come anywhere close to loving a team (that’s not one of my actual teams) like I love this Washington team.

However, there is some comfort in knowing that I will either have a 50/1 and 66/1 ticket on Washington in the Natty or a 22/1 on Texas. Hopefully, a lot of you reading this have at least one of those tickets, if not both at some great numbers. So without further ado, let’s get into the games…

Updated Bowl SZN YTD as of 12/31: 21-18+4.15u

Click here to read my thoughts and picks for the non-CFP games on 1/1:

Bowl SZN Mega Betting Preview Part IV (12/29-1/1)

Alabama vs. Michigan (-1.5) o/u 45

To be honest, I had a really difficult time deciding how I was going to bet on this game. My immediate thought was a head vs. heart debate. My head was telling me that Michigan was the much better team and had proven that they were the better team all season. But my heart was telling me that Michigan just doesn’t seem to have the juice when it comes to the CFP and that Saban obviously does.

Michigan has been the height of consistency this season. They dominated everyone on their schedule through the first couple of months. Their defense was elite, their run game was one of the best in the country, and JJ McCarthy was doing everything asked of him. However, they did play a total cupcake schedule up until their matchup with Penn State.

That ended up being such a bizarre game because they refused to throw the ball the entire second half but Penn State was so pathetic offensively that Michigan just held them down and won the game. Then to end the season, they outlasted Ohio State in a game where they weren’t overly convincing. Kyle McCord made some massive mistakes early in the game to give Michigan a headstart but once he settled in, you could easily make the argument that Ohio State was the better team. They outgained Michigan and had more YPP, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in what ended up being the difference.

On the other side, it was a bizarre year for Alabama who were anything but consistent. They had the early loss to Texas where Texas just flat-out dominated them in almost every facet. Then they benched Jalen Milroe and struggled to beat South Florida in a game where it seemed like the program was falling apart. Saban bounced back, however, and made it through the regular season without dropping another game.

Jalen Milroe consistently got better as the season went on and all of that culminated with his miracle play to beat Auburn. If he doesn’t make that throw, Alabama isn’t playing in this game, even if they beat Georiga in the SEC Championship. Speaking of that game, Nick Saban and his staff deserve all the credit in the world for how they attacked Georiga. Saban seemed to finally accept that he was the underdog when facing Georgia and went out to take the game.

Kirby and Georgia seemed to think they could play conservative football and win because they were the better team. Meanwhile, Saban coached to win the game and Alabama did just that. However, if they played again today I would back Georgia to win that game.

Ultimately, I do have more faith in the Michigan defense than the Alabama defense. I also think Michigan has the superior offensive line and that they will control the trenches on both sides of the ball. However, this game will most likely come down to quarterback play. I think you can safely say that both quarterbacks are the biggest question mark here.

These two QBs are almost invoices of each other. Milroe has a great deep ball and can make a miracle play happen as he did against Auburn. However, he still is too inconsistent with short-to-medium throws and I don’t trust him to make the right decision on a key 3rd and 6 for example. Whereas McCarthy has not been asked to do much this season and doesn’t create many explosive plays. But, he does seem to come up with the right play at the right time when Michigan needs to convert a key 3rd down.

I feel like after two years of disappointing exits in the CFP semifinals, Michigan is finally ready to take the jump. They have been the better team all season and despite everything in the back of your head saying “but it’s Nick Saban” you just have to trust that and back the better team at such a short line.

I have a couple of player props I will be playing as well- I think McCarthy will have a chance to scramble and the long layoff should have him feeling really healthy and ready to do that so I like his rushing prop over. I also think Donovan Edwards will have a big day in the screen game so I am taking his receiving prop over. Finally, Roman Wilson has been the go-to guy in key spots for JJ for multiple years now and averaged almost a TD a game this season so I am going with him as any anytime TD scorer.

Picks: 1.5u Michigan ML (-120), 0.5u McCarthy o15.5 rush yards, 0.5u Donovan Edwards o16.5 receiving yards, 0.53u Roman Wilson Anytime TD (+190)

Texas vs. Washington (+4) o/u 63.5

This line is an interesting spot. I bet it at +4.5 a couple weeks ago (spoiler alert) and it came down to a consensus 4 across the board for a while. Currently, there are mostly 4s on the board still but BetMGM is currently hanging the first 3.5 I have seen since the line opened. However, FanDuel is currently hanging a 4.5. Long story short, shop around because that hook could matter on either side that you want.

As I already said, I will be taking the points with Washington here to absolutely no one’s surprise. However, I really do think that this number is too high. This could easily be a field goal game in either direction in my mind and getting Washington over 3 is a bargain. I also think this matchup is actually really solid for Washington.

Washington’s defensive weakness this season has definitely been when facing the run and Texas will be without their stud RB Jonathon Brooks. Meanwhile, Texas has an elite run defense but they have struggled to defend the deep passing game which Washington does better than arguably anyone in the country. Also, Texas has an elite pass rush but they will be facing a Washington offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award as the best unit in the country.

Obviously, as a Texas future holder, I believe in this team and think they do a lot of things excellently. Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell are in the top-3 WR duos in the nation (along with Washington and OSU) and I think Quinn Ewers really is the guy. However, Worthy’s health is not at 100% coming into this game. The time off was huge for him to even be able to play but Worthy has admitted himself that his ankle is not at 100%. It’s not just concerning that he isn’t 100%, but that an ankle like that is so easy to tweak in the game and get set back even further.

At quarterback, despite being a Ewers believer, you have to take Michael Penix Jr. in that debate. He has been consistently the best quarterback in America over the past two seasons and he has more calmness and composure than any QB I’ve ever seen. When he absolutely needs a big conversion in the red zone or on a 3rd/4th down, he just always seems to get it.

Whereas Ewers has shown the propensity to make a big mistake at the worst possible time like his two early INTs against Oklahoma that put Texas in a huge hole (granted the second one was totally his fault). Both quarterbacks could end up playing fantastically but if you had to pick one that could make a key mistake, it would have to be Ewers.

When it comes to coaching, I think Sark has done a phenomenal job at Texas and is an elite offensive mind. However, Kalen DeBoer is the best college football coach in the nation, for my money. He simply wins football games. He is 103-11 as a head football coach. That doesn’t happen by accident. With so much time to prep, both coaches should have a great game plan here but DeBoer is who I trust more to make the right changes in-game.

I think this will be a really close game with both teams in the high 20s, low 30s so the total seems about right to me. I think this comes down to which team will make that one huge play or NOT make that one huge mistake, and I believe that team will be Washington and they advance here.

In the player prop market- I love Jalen McMillan in this game. Rome Odunze is such a monster that he gets a lot of defensive attention, but McMillan is so pivotal to this offense. His missing a few weeks really hurt this team and it was clear how important he was when he returned against Oregon to win the conference, ending up with 131 receiving yards in that game. I am also taking Devin Culp to score a TD. It’s a bit of a longshot but he is a huge red zone target and could get a look with so much attention on the WRs. Finally, I really like AD Mitchell and with Worthy not being 100%, I want to back him.

Picks: 2u Washington +4.5, 0.5u McMillian o72.5 receving yards, 0.5u AD Mitchell o60.5 receiving yards, 0.33u Culp anytime TD (+550)

That’s it! These should be two incredible games so hopefully, they live up to the hype, our bets cash, and we see Washington in the National Championship game. Happy New Year and as always…