Hello, friends. *extremely Jim Nance voice* I am Blakey Locks and I will be your guide this March. Every round I am going to traverse you through the trials and tribulations of betting your mortgage on 18-year-olds playing basketball. From Duke to Seton Hall to Gardner Webb, I will give you the knowledge necessary to conquer your bookie and feed your children. We will win together, lose together and laugh together. Let’s ride.
NCAA Tournament Record- (34-30)
Final Four- Saturday 4/6
This is April. March has come and gone and we only have three college basketball games left in the season. A lot of people are kind of down on this Final Four but I personally couldn’t be more excited.
- The fear of Duke winning a National Championship is gone so it’s all relaxation
- I have a future bet on UVA and a MASSIVE one on Auburn so I’m guaranteed to have a big money opportunity in the National Championship game
- Texas Tech, UVA, and Michigan State are all so well coached and play such a precise, efficient brand of basketball that they won’t go out there and just completely lay a dud. If you can appreciate good basketball you should love watching these teams
- Auburn is one of the craziest tournament teams I’ve seen in years. Pretty high preseason expectations that they seemed to have come up way short on and then just went on an insane tear winning the SEC Tournament and making a run to the Final Four. And on the way, they beat UNC by 17, Kansas by 14, and Kentucky. Just an unreal run.
If you have any semblance of a grasp on mathematics you can see that I will finish the NCAA Tournament with a winning record picking every single game ATS. Many people out there would not be brave enough to pick every single game (and put actual money on them which I did because I have integrity and would never give a pick I didn’t bet myself) but I did and I am coming out a winner. But 37-30 would sound a hell of a lot better than 34-33 so let’s end this as strong as humanly possible.
All lines as of Friday @ 8:00 PM EST via BetOnline
6:09 PM on CBS- (5) Auburn vs. (1) Virginia (-6) o/u 130.5
So despite my praise of this Final Four, admittedly the storylines have been kind of slow all week because of the teams involved. However, this Kyle Guy story has been really interesting to follow. It all started when Busted Coverage (my old home) wrote a blog joking about what to get Kyle Guy from off his wedding registry. The NCAA saw said blog and sent BC a cease and desist saying that it violated NCAA rules to buy gifts for Kyle. Then obviously the NCAA proceeded to tell Kyle, who is one or two games away from never being a college athlete again, he had to remove his wedding registry from the internet until his UVA career is over. Personally, I think this is going to turn into a huge W for Kyle. Everybody hates the NCAA so much that once he puts his registry back up, people will go crazy and buy everything on his registry and more. Maybe that was his plan the whole time? If so, that was an all-time finesse by Mr. and Mrs. Guy.
Let’s get to the game. On paper, UVA should win this game and be able to cover the number with relative ease. But the game is not played on paper, and Auburn is currently the hottest basketball team on the planet and they are showing no signs of slowing down. UVA, on the other hand, has struggled in a couple games so far and needed a little miracle to beat Purdue in the Elite Eight. Maybe with a few days off and the whole shooting in a football stadium thing, water will find its level and UVA will easily cover but I just see this game coming right down to the wire. Like I mentioned earlier I have futures on both teams so it’s somewhat relaxing for me but Auburn is a MUCH bigger payday and I’m not even going to attempt a hedge. War Damn.
The Pick: Auburn +6
Bonus (you have to bet the side and total in every Final Four game obviously): o130.5
8:49 PM on CBS- (3) Texas Tech vs. (2) Michigan State (-2.5) o/u 132.5
Dez Bryant. Known degenerate. Fun fact.
If you’re having any trepidation about the Final Four I am telling you to trust in this game. I think this could be one of the better Final Four games we have ever seen. Tom Izzo has gotten to ANOTHER Final Four and is officially #back. Chris Beard is the National Coach of the Year in college basketball and I think he could be the next Jay Wright type of guy. Jarrett Culver for Texas Tech is going to be a Top 10 pick in the NBA Draft and Cassius Winston for Michigan State is one of the best pure college basketball players in the country. Both teams are incredibly sound defensively and don’t make a ton of mistakes offensively. If you love basketball and can appreciate good basketball this is going to be the perfect game for you. Currently, 52% of tickets and 52% of the money are on Michigan State. That means both the public and sharps are dead even on this game. Unlike the UVA game which has now moved a full point, this line has stayed dead even. That means everyone in Vegas from the pro bettors to the linemakers to average Joe are all completely split on this game, which is so rare.
I really think Texas Tech is just an unbelievable team and they have some magic around them as well. As I mentioned in my Michigan State/Duke preview (S/O to Duke for going 0-4 ATS in the tournament and making me easy money) Tom Izzo is the king of making the Final Four then losing and I think he will again. Guns Up.
The Pick: Texas Tech +2.5
It breaks my heart that I’ll only get to write one more of these. It’s been a hell of a tournament. Let’s close it out strong.