A much needed break.
In my opinion, the daily baseball betting grind is the most mentally taxing sport to bet and it’s not particularly close. Football season requires more work for me personally but you have all week to read through information and put together your perfect card and then you sit down on Saturday and Sunday and just hope for the best. However, the 162 day grind with literally no days off during baseball season can take a serious toll. 2-3 losing days pile up and it can feel like you’re in a giant hole when in reality, it’d be impossible to not have those bad streaks in a 162 day season. For those reasons, I think the All-Star break is an incredibly important time to shut off and just take a breath. There is no prep you can really be doing for when the season comes back other than maybe reviewing some numbers of how teams/pitchers have performed up to this point. I will personally be using the next few days as a much needed mental health break (well I’ll actually be writing up a ton of information for football season but that’s not work for me) and just enjoying the All-Star festivities.
I will be putting a few pennies on the Home Run Derby just because I think it’s a fun event but in no way should you be betting enough on the Derby that it’s not fun if your horse loses because in reality, the Derby is mostly a craps shoot. Coors Field is obviously an incredibly hitter-friendly park so we should see huge numbers put up this year, which I also think adds to the random element of the Derby even more. For example, in the last Home Run Derby in 2019 three of the four first round matchups were upsets and the 8-seed made it all the way to the final. The 1-seed has actually lost in the first round in the last three Home Run Derbies and since the bracket model was adopted in 2015, the 1-seed has never even made the final.
So my bets on the Derby will be pure value plays. I’m first going with Juan Soto at 10/1. Like I said, the 1-seeds have historically done bad in the Derby and I know Ohtani is an electric guy but if Soto can make it past him I really like his chances of beating Alonso/Perez and making the final. He’s a young guy with a smooth swing so fatigue should not be a factor. I’m also taking a shot at the longest odds in the field in Trey Mancini at 15/1. Mancini is having a great year and I think Matt Olson is a very beatable first round matchup. Also, Mancini just has such a feel-good story and should be highly motivated to win this thing. Finally, I’m taking an exact result matchup with Gallo over Alonso 10/1. I actually don’t love Gallo’s swing for a Derby because I think he may burn out early but the 2-seed has actually made the finals all 5 years in the bracket era and in terms of raw power Gallo is probably the best in the field. Also, the 5-seed has made the final 3/5 years and Alonso is the defending champ so I’m taking a small shot where I can get more value on Gallo in an exact matchup prop. I won’t be betting the All-Star Game but I’ll be posting some highlights over the next couple days and other than that I’ll see you all Friday.