This college football season is absolutely flying by. It’s crazy that we’re already at the halfway point of the season, but that being said it’s set up to be a wild second half of the season with a lot of drama across the P5 conferences, particularly the B1G. For us, this week has already gotten off to a tough start and we are going to be working uphill but we have Syracuse +14.5 for 1.5u and I added Cal/Oregon u54 for 1u tonight as well. So hopefully we have a good Friday night and can be back near even heading into Saturday. I’m going to run through the big games of the weekend and my angle on them and then quickly run through the rest of the card. Also, the picks listed are at the lines I bet which are all released on the Action App so follow me there to get these numbers. Otherwise, I’ll indicate if the bet is not good at the current line.
Florida (-12) @ LSU o/u 59.5
LSU is a dead dog. Coach O is without a doubt going to be fired by January 10th, 2022 and if he is fired this weekend I would not be surprised. Rumors have been circulating all season he has totally lost control of the locker room and it’s looking more and more like Joe Burrow and Joe Brady carried LSU to that National Championship. Dan Mullen loves nothing more than stomping on dead teams and not taking his foot off the gas late against these teams. LSU also has a large number of players out with either injuries or that have announced they’re transferring. I think Florida will win this game by 14+ and I like them as a really safe ML parlay piece and I’m also playing some on the number.
Pick: 1u Florida -12
Oklahoma State (+4.5) @ Texas o/u 60
It’s going to be really tough for Texas to emotionally get over the loss they took last week when it looked they had Oklahoma on the ropes. I don’t think Spencer Sanders is very good but he did light it up against a bad Kansas State secondary that is pretty comparable to Texas’ secondary. He also has the ability to take off and scramble like we saw Caleb Williams do really effectively last week. This Oklahoma State offense also ran for over 250 yards against Boise State so they can adjust their playcalling to exploit opposing defenses’ weaknesses. This Oklahoma State defense is also legit- they are shutting people down. They have played Boise State, Kansas State, and Baylor the last 3 weeks (all offenses capable of scoring) and given up an average of 18 PPG. I think they can keep this thing close the whole way. I took this line at 5.5 so hopefully people following on Action did as well but FanDuel is still hanging a 4.5 and there are plenty of flat 4s out there so shop around.
Pick: 1.5u Oklahoma State +5.5
Kentucky (+22) @ Georgia o/u 44.5
I feel like this has been said a lot over the past couple of years but this is the biggest Kentucky football game in program history. They are undefeated halfway through their season and if they find a way to pull off this upset they will be in the driver’s seat to make the college football playoff… too bad they ain’t winning this game. However, I do like them to keep this close. Stetson Bennett has played well so far but hasn’t been asked to do very much. He only attempted 11 passes in Georgia’s route of Arkansas and was able to hit some wide receivers with no one within 10 yards of them last week against Auburn, especially after Smoke Monday went down. This will be the toughest defense Stetson has faced and we saw him fall apart against Florida last year after playing well against bad opponents for a few weeks leading up to that. I think Kentucky will be able to limit this offense and force Stetson into mistakes. Kentucky will also be the best offensive line that Georgia has faced so far this season and I think that will allow the Cats to sustain some drives and control more clock than most opponents do against Georgia. This Dawgs defense is insane and they will win this game for Georgia but I wouldn’t be shocked if this is much closer than the line indicates- my biggest worry is honestly Stetson getting benched and JT Daniels coming in and lighting it up. Other than that, Cats should be good for the cover.
Pick: 1.5u Kentucky +24
Ole Miss (-2.5) @ Tennessee o/u 82.5
This is Tennessee’s biggest game in several years. After a few years of major struggles it seems like they may have found something with this Josh Heupel/Hendon Hooker combo. Their offense is playing insanely fast and moving the ball with ease since moving Hooker in at QB. However, they have also played two pretty bad football teams in Missouri and South Carolina in those two games. Ole Miss on the other hand is unquestionably a top-5 offense in the country. This game is obviously set to be a shootout with this insanely high total of 82.5 and I think that gives Ole Miss the advantage. Ole Miss is fine with letting Tennessee move the ball down the field so their offense can get the ball back and score some more and just hope their defense comes up with a big play here or there to help them out. I think Matt Corral and Lane Kiffin will just be too much for the Vols and they won’t be able to keep up at the end of the day. However, despite a line of -2.5 which is safe with 99% of teams in the country, I’m more comfortable pairing this ML with a huge favorite. We saw Ole Miss win by 1 last week against Arkansas and they won by 1 in a game against Kentucky last year. The way Lane coaches going for 4th downs and going for 2 causes opposing coaches to feel like they have to do the same and that creates some wacky final scores so give me the ML paired with a big favorite in UAB.
Pick: 1.5u Ole Miss/UAB MLP (-105)
Noon EST Slate
1.5u Michigan State (-3) @ Indiana- This is one I hit right away when lines came out and got the best of the line. This Michigan State offense is legitimately really good led by Kenneth Walker III and the defense is just so-so but that’s really all you need against this inept Indiana offense. They have been atrocious all year and now could be without Michael Penix on Saturday. I think this is a route and is good at the current number of 4.5 (can also pair with a large favorite in a MLP if more comfortable).
1u Auburn/Arkansas o53.5- We saw Auburn’s secondary get exposed last week and I don’t see how they stop Treylon Burks. Arkansas’s tempo went way up last week and I’ll think they’ll stick with that again. Bo Nix and co. will have to move the ball quickly and try to put up a lot of points to hang with Arkansas so I think we see both teams with a high pace here and this thing shoots over.
1.5u Oklahoma State +5.5- written up above
1u Florida -11- written up above
1.5u Florida/Pitt MLP- I wrote above why Florida is a great MLP piece with a shorter favorite. I think this VA Tech team is cooked. I was low on them going into the year and they have been pretty meh. Their win over UNC Week One looks less and less impressive every week and the fact they couldn’t win that game against Notre Dame last week that they had in hand is very telling. This Pitt team would be getting a ton of national attention if they hadn’t slipped up and lost a bizarre one to Western Michigan in a huge let down spot after beating Tennessee. This team can score with any team in the country and Kenny Pickett is putting up insane numbers every week. Braxton Burmeister is just flat out not very good and this Tech offense won’t be able to keep up with Pickett and co.
330 EST slate
1.5u Kentucky +24- written up above
1.5u Purdue +11.5- I realize I could just be considered a hater at this point but I don’t think Iowa is the 2nd best team in the country. Penn State would have won that game last week if Clifford had stayed in the game and Iowa got away with one there. Purdue is not very good but they love playing gross, low-scoring games just like the Hawkeyes and I think that’s what we get. Purdue lost 20-13 to Minnesota, beat Illinois 13-9, and lost 27-13 to Notre Dame in a game that was 17-13 entering the 4th. This team plays good defense and Iowa’s bad offense will struggle to move the ball and that will keep this thing close. I’m hoping Jack Plummer starts at QB for Purdue because he is one of the only QBs yet to throw an INT this season but if he doesn’t we could see Aidan O’Connell who beat Iowa last year at QB. They play a very different style with those 2 QBs so it should also be tough for Iowa to prep for both possibilities. Purdue is a perfect 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU under Jeff Brohm against Iowa and have covered 5 straight in Iowa City. Don’t be shocked if Purdue pulls off the outright upset here.
1u WKU/ODU o67- Bailey Zappe is an electric factory but this WKU defense is historically awful. That’s why WKU is a perfect 5-0 to the over this season and they can’t set their totals high enough. Their total was 66.5 against Michigan State and they combined for 79 then their total was 71.5 against UTSA and they combined for 98. I think WKU covers this big number because ODU won’t be able to keep up but I think WKU scores 45 on their own so the over is the safer play here.
1.5u Ole Miss/UAB MLP- written up above
1.5u Miss State +17.5– Texas A&M exposed some weaknesses in this Alabama team that have been there all season (we saw it against Florida as well). I’ve been saying it all year, this is not 2020 Alabama. “But Alabama will bounce back because Saban MAD!!!” Not so fast my friend…
Mike Leach is also elite as a big dog. His air raid attack always gets some points on the board to keep his team in it and the Cowbells actually have a defense with a pulse this year. They have been in close games all year (two losses by a combined 5 points) and I think they hang around against Bama here with also huge backdoor potential.
1.5u BC +3.5– Boston College is just a great football team. They have elite special teams, a really good defense, and a dynamic offense. They are also off a bye week in this spot after almost beating Clemson the week before and are looking to continue their mission for an ACC title. I’m not as sold on this NC State team, particularly on the defensive side of the football. I think BC wins this game outright at home.
1u TCU/OK o63.5– Caleb Williams will light it up. Points on points.
1u Iowa State -6.5– Brocktober is 1-0. We go again.
1u Army/Wisco u42.5– The most inept offense in the country plays against a triple option team here. I don’t know how either team scores more than 17. The biggest fear here is quadruple overtime after a 14-14 end of regulation or Graham Mertz throwing 4 pick sixes. This stays under any number currently on the board.
1.5u UCLA +1.5– This is a feel game. I just think Washington is not very good and UCLA will be able to run the ball all over them. UCLA has just proven more this year and in this coinflip I think they have a key edge with their rush offense.
1.5u Air Force +4– Service academy underdog going against a Boise State team that just can’t be trusted. Air Force is an elite rush offense facing a terrible rush defense. That should allow them to control basically the entire flow of the game. This Boise offense is totally one-dimensional and Air Force should be prepared to stop them.
1.5u Arizona State ML (-105)– This is another coinflip game in the PAC-12 that I am just going with my strong feel in. I think Arizona State is legitimately a very good football team and would be getting a lot of national attention if not for a voodoo magic loss in Provo earlier this year. Jayden Daniels is going to put on a show and Herm is going to play to win the game. Give me the Devils.
1u Hawaii +14.5- Hawaii has rattle off 3 covers in a row including a close 3-point loss to Fresno State in a similar matchup to this one. The Bows are also off a bye and should be ready for this matchup with Carson Strong. Nevada is 1-2 ATS as a favorite this year. Hawaii’s defense is also much better against the pass so that should help against a Nevada offense that has no interest in running the ball.
What a card. I have faith that the big Saturday will come soon as it did multiple times last season and that will jumpstart a hot run. I tinkered with my approach going into this weekend and did some things I think will give me more of an edge but overall I trust my process that has worked for multiple seasons now. Hopefully everyone tailing CFB is also tailing NFL and if so we are up big overall in football. If not, keep the faith because I’m doing everything I can to get these CFB numbers up. Thanks for all the support so far this season and I hope this is the weekend the supports pays off.