Well, I should have seen this one coming. We finally get the great CFB Saturday we’ve been waiting on and then I get hit with the worst NFL Sunday I’ve had all year the next day. It was bloody Sunday for sportsbooks and a huge day for the public with all of the favorites dominating. However, that means it’s also bad news for me because I win in the NFL by betting with the book needs and fading the public. But you always get one or two of those Sundays every year in the NFL and they are always few and far between so I’m not worried there. I’m much happier with the CFB Saturday that brought home over 4u than I am upset about the bad NFL Sunday. Below, I’ll update the YTD numbers with some thoughts about where we’re at going forward and then also give my thoughts on MNF tonight.
CFB YTD: 59-51-2 (53.64%) +0.66u
We are plus money YTD in college football for the first time in the month of October and I couldn’t be more excited. After the two prior weekends and dropping the first two 3u plays of the season it seemed like the sky was falling but in reality we had a really strong start to the season and then just went through a short skid. This weekend brought us out of that skid with some really nice reads, particularly Purdue, Air Force, and OK State winning as dogs outright, Kentucky covering against the Dawgs, and the Oklahoma/TCU and Arkansas/Auburn totals sailing over. I’m much more confident in my feel going into this weekend and have already locked in three early positions for next week.
Make sure you’re following on the Action app (@BlakeyLocks) to see these plays immediately when they come through but in case you missed them, UCLA ML (I played it at -115, -125 is still available, -130 is the max I would play it at otherwise play the spread to -2.5) at home against Oregon, Alabama -27.5, and the Air Force/San Diego State under 41.5. I’ll have write ups later in the week but I’d lock those in now and there will be more to come throughout the week.
NFL YTD: 40-28-3 (58.82%) +12.55u
After Sunday, we finally dipped below 60% on the season which was a heartbreaker for me but I’ll try to get it back this weekend. It was the first bad teaser weekend of the year for me due to the pure domination by the favorites and then a couple close ones that could have covered (Bears, Pats in OT) just didn’t break our way. Overall, there is no worries and NFL will be just fine moving forward. I already locked in a position for TNF and that is on the Broncos at +4.5 (like it to +3.5). Kareem Hunt is out for the game and so is JOK on defense for the Browns. Chubb may be back for TNF but I wouldn’t be surprised if they just basically punt this game and rest him for another 10 days. Baker is also super banged up and this is a scary Broncos defense to face with all these injuries. Teddy is also back as a road dog finally after being a favorite a couple of weeks in a row (and not covering) so we can back him again.
MNF Preview: Titans (+6) vs. Bills o/u 53
The Bills have been a covering machine so far this season and favorites dominated on Sunday. In the NFL, that means it’s time to go contrarian. In college football, teams can dominate and start 8-0 ATS but that just doesn’t really happen in the NFL. The Bills are due for an ATS loss and I think they are flat out overvalued against a good Titans team on the road. The Bills are an awesome team and are legit Super Bowl contenders as evidenced by their performance against the Chiefs. However, before that they played 4 of the worst offenses in football (Steelers, WFT, Dolphins, and Texans). I think we still can’t be sure how good this Bills defense is and the Titans should be a good test for them. Selling high on the Bills here.
Pick: 1u Titans +6
Hopefully the Titans take care of business and here are the bets already locked for next week to recap:
1.5u Broncos +4.5 (-115)
1.5u UCLA ML (-115)
1.5u SDSU/Air Force u41.5
1.5u Alabama -27.5
More to come later in the week.