Happy Feast Week/Rivalry Week! This is one of the best sports betting weeks of the year with daytime basketball all week, Thanksgiving NFL action, MACtion Tuesday and Wednesday, the Egg Bowl Thursday, basically a full slate of CFB on Friday and Saturday, and NFL Sunday. It’s the last regular-season weekend of college football so it’s bittersweet but the slate is so phenomenal that you can’t complain. You have the Iron Bowl with Alabama’s playoff hopes on the line, the Civil War decides the PAC-12 North, the Egg Bowl between two red hot Mississippi teams, and the matchup of the weekend between Ohio State and Michigan with a Big Ten Championship and playoff spot potentially on the line. Now let’s get into the recap and then the weekday games…
CFB Week 12: 8-11 -6.15u
CFB YTD: 114-100-5 +1.03u
NFL Week 11: 4-8 -7.8u
NFL YTD: 69-59-3 +3.99u
It was a brutal, brutal week. No other way to put it. In the NFL, we had a bad break with Lamar getting ruled out (and the Ravens still only missing the cover by 2 points) but then a bad read on the Browns and a couple teaser misses. There is no excuse for that bad of a week. There is still a lot of NFL ahead so I’m confident we can get in the right direction, especially when regular season CFB is over I can fully focus on NFL with fewer CFB games on the slate. In terms of CFB, we had some tough losses like the Sparty/Buckeyes over but most of the misses were pretty clear misses and most of the winners were wire-to-wire winners. Luckily this last week of the season presents a lot of clear motivational spots with teams searching for their 6th win, teams that can still make their conference championship, and teams with a program heading in the right direction going against a team that had a disappointing season.
I haven’t had enough time to fully dive into the Thursday Thanksgiving games in the NFL and there’s nothing obvious there so I’ll have an NFL article on Thursday. But I do have a pick for MACtion and the Egg Bowl so I’ll get to those here and then give you my NFL thoughts as well as some bonus Thanksgiving content.
1.5u Ball State/Memphis MLP (+102)- At 4-7, Buffalo’s season is over in disappointing fashion but the Ball State Cardinals are sitting at 5-6 and need this win to become bowl eligible. Ball State has the motivational factor and the home-field advantage. Buffalo has also for the most part beaten who they should beat and lost who they should have lost to. They are 4-1 SU as favorites and 0-6 SU as dogs. They have not been able to compete very well with superior opponents and have failed to cover 4 of their L5 overall. Ball State also has a great run defense to stop the Buffalo ground attack and are an elite red zone team that should score TDs effortlessly against Buffalo.
Tulane finally got the monkey off their back with their first FBS win of the season last week, but this ain’t South Florida. Tulane’s secondary is horrific and they should get shredded by the dangerous Memphis passing attack. The Memphis defense matches up well with Tulane but overall Tulane won’t be able to keep up. Also, Memphis is in line for bowl eligibility with a 6th win this weekend.
1.5u Ole Miss +1.5- I am rolling with Ole Miss here. Mississippi State is the side I am seeing everybody take here and the home-field advantage definitely helps a lot but Ole Miss is the better team. They are an elite ATS team this year at 8-3 and are 9-2 SU. This Cowbell secondary is also really vulnerable and Matt Corral is going to make his last push for the Heisman in this game. This has been an incredible year for Ole Miss and they were relatively close to a playoff spot if the cards had fallen slightly different. I think Lane and Matt Corral want to end this year with an Egg Bowl win which would get them into a top tier bowl game. Ole Miss’ defense has played much better the last few weeks and where they have really been killed this season is on the ground and Miss State has virtually no run game. While Ole Miss has an amazing run/pass balance, the Cowbell offense is air raid to a T. That should help Ole Miss prepare and be ready to stop their passing attack. There biggest offensive fault this season has also been turnovers and the Rebs have managed to get takeaways in key spots this year. If you can take the point or two I’d take it because we’ve seen Ole Miss games and specifically Egg Bowls come down to a point or two in the past but I like the Rebs to win the big game on Thursday.
Be back with NFL tomorrow!