YTD: 109-90-5 +9.03u
Last weekend was awesome and a winning week of MACtion moved our unit count up a couple more units to where we are now in a position to make a real push for a big CFB number after all the misery of the early season. This weekend is the penultimate weekend of the college football regular season and isn’t the best slate. Some SEC teams are playing their punt game and a lot of teams have a weaker conference opponent leading up to rivarly week after Thanksgiving. However, we do have some matchups like Michigan State/Ohio State which will be a CFB Playoff elimination game and other teams with a playoff shot like Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Oregon, Cincy, and Alabama all have tough matchups. It’s not my favorite slate but there are a handful of games with really solid value.
2u Utah -3 vs. Oregon
This is a line that non-gamblers would probably be confused by but the Utes are quietly playing really good football since two really bad early season losses to non-conference opponents. They are also undefeated at home this season and it is really really hard to go into Salt Lake City and beat the Utes. The Utes have a really tough run defense and that’s what the Ducks want to do. I am not an Anthony Brown believer and I think Utah will force the Ducks to throw and they won’t be successful doing so. Offensively, Utah has a great balance- they ran for over 400 yards against Stanford but against USC Cam Rising threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs. Their offense is balanced enough to exploit the opposing defenses’ weaknesses and take what they are given. I think the Utes win this and the PAC-12 is eliminated from the College Football Playoff once again.
2u Iowa State +4 @ Oklahoma
Matt Campbell has had a lot of success ATS against Oklahoma- they are 5-1 ATS in their L6 against the Sooners. Iowa State has been really successful ATS as a dog under Campbell as well and done great off a SU loss. They are on a 20-7 ATS run off a SU loss and on a 20-9-1 ATS run as dogs. They have underperformed and found ways to lose games in spectacular fashion this year but they are looking for redemption with a huge win here in Norman. Iowa State is elite against the rush and should force Oklahoma to be one dimensional. We’ve seen them struggle when they don’t have the run/pass balance and now their QB situation is totally up in the air and they are a mess all around. I think Iowa State goes into Norman and wins this game straight up… but take the points.
2u Wake Forest +3.5 @ Clemson
CLEMSON IS TERRIBLE! They are one of the worst Power Five offenses in the country and are now missing their WR1, Justyn Ross. Clemson’s ACC wins this season have come by 3 against Syracuse, 6 against BC, 10 against FSU (but should have been 3), 6 against Louisville, and 6 against Georgia Tech. Their only two covers this year came on the flukiest play of the entire CFB season to cover against FSU (and some of us had 10 and pushed despite the fluke) and against Louisville where they won by 6 as 4-point favorites in a game where they had to outscore the Cards 17-0 in the 4th quarter and kick a field goal after a turnover on downs with 2 minutes left to win and cover the spread.
This Clemson offense also failed to put up 50 points on UConn and FCS SC State. Army, Purdue, and Fresno State all managed to put up more points on the Huskies and Middle Tennessee State matched Clemson’s point total. I know that isn’t a fool proof comparison method but if you watched that UConn/Clemson game it was proof postive of how Clemson has been so bad covering numbers this year.
I think they could find a way to win this game late on a GW FG or in an OT game but I like Wake to cover the number and think it’s a coinflip who wins. If Sam Hartman and co. play to their best ability like they have basically all damn season then I think they will score more points than Clemson is capable of keeping up with. The Deacons still have an outside longshot at the CFP with all of the other madness going on and this win would secure them the ACC Coastal. They want this damn win. Go Deacs.
1.5u West Virginia -2.5- Texas is washed and I think this WVU team is yet to play to their potential. It’s a really hard place to play and I can’t see Texas getting up for it. No Bijan or top corner for Texas and WVU passing attack should win the day.
1.5u UAB +4.5- Bill Clark as a dog, yes please. UTSA overvalued because of ranking next to their name. UAB 5-1 ATS on the road this year, both of UTSA’s missed covers this year are as home favs. UAB offense through the air have big edge.
1.5u Maryland +14.5- I HATE betting Maryland especially in big games but this is the situational spot of the year so can’t pass. Michigan with big dramatic win over Penn State on the road, now have to go to College Park in a sleepy spot before game of the decade for them against Ohio State next week. Hold your nose and hope Taulia doesn’t throw picks.
1.5u Nebraska +9- Huskers continue to keep games close and cover as dogs. Wisco has been on a good run against shit teams but Nebraska should be a good test for them as they were for Ohio State and others.
1.5u Alabama 1H (-12.5)- Arkansas is just really banged up and they are dragging to the finish line. Emotional late win over LSU last time out. Really bad matchup with Bama offensively and I think Bama skill position guys will run wild. Taking 1H as Bama may ease up late to get ready for Iron Bowl.
1.5u Kansas State ML (-115)- Awful spot for Baylor after the Oklahoma win and K State is playing really well. They have covered 4 in a row and are 5-1 ATS as favorites this year. Baylor has been much better at home this year, they are 1-3 ATS on the road. K State matches up well defensively.
1u Ohio State/Mich State o66.5- Points. Walker should still be beast mode but Ohio State might score 50. Stroud gonna shred them through the air. Points.
1u Akron +13.5- Awful spot for Kent State. They could win or lose this game and regardless they play Miami for the division next week. They could rest their starters the whole 2H if they wanted to. Go Zips.
1u South Carolina +7.5- No Bo Nix and SC is highly motivated to get a win to become bowl eligible. Should be a crazy night atmosphere in Columbia. SC knows the Mike Bobo offense very well.
1u Arizona State -3- Back to my Devils for the first time in a while. Oregon State having a great year but I think Daniels and ASU are just way more talented and despite the big matchup, Beavs could be looking ahead to the Civil War somewhat as they want to spoil Oregon’s playoff hopes.
That’s the card! Let’s have a great Saturday people.