CFB YTD: 124-108-5 (53.45%) +4.11u
CFB in November: 49-37-2 (56.98%) +13.63u
It was an absolute grind of a regular season. Not at all the number I had hoped for going into the season but based on the number we were sitting on at the end of October, I’m pretty happy to be up a few units heading into Championship Weekend. It was a really good month of November and I’m hoping to carry that momentum into Champ Weekend and Bowl SZN. Last year in the month of December I went 39-24-2 (61.9%) +18.6u including a 6-2-2 +5.27u Championship Weekend (there were still regular-season games in December last season if you’re confused about the volume). That being said, I’m confident I can produce similar numbers the rest of the way this season and get us a solid double-digit unit profit this season.
There are a few games I have live plays on and some I have futures on that I’m just letting ride but I’ll give my thoughts on. If you have any questions about futures you have going into this weekend, whether they are the same as mine or not, let me know on Twitter and I’ll give you any advice I have (although in most cases I would just let them ride).
Friday Night- Western Kentucky (-3.5) @ UTSA o/u 73 (true road game)
First of all, let’s talk about this total. I love it. We have THREE totals over 70 this weekend between this game, the MAC, and the ACC. That just gets my blood pumping but particularly in this one where we get to see Bailey Zappe go to work. For those unfamiliar, Bailey Zappe transferred in with his head coach from D-II Houston Baptist this past offseason and has set the CFB world on fire.
I have actually bet on WKU maybe more than any other team this year (Ole Miss maybe?) and I have no choice but to ride them again here. Their offense is unreal and UTSA’s secondary won’t be able to hang. More importantly, their defense which was killing them early on in the season has really rounded into form and is shutting teams down. These two teams have trended opposite directions late in the season, hence the Toppers being road favorites in San Antonio. If you get this line at -3 (-120) or better I would recommend trying to get that (hopefully you got it at -1, -1.5 when I gave it out earlier this week) but I still like to -3.5 or paired with Cincy or Michigan in a MLP.
Pick: 1.5u WKU ML (-125)
Friday Night- Oregon vs. Utah (-3) o/u 57.5 (neutral field)
I was all over Utah in the first matchup between these two just a couple of weeks ago. Most importantly, Utah had home-field in that game and they have one of the best home-field records in all of CFB. That was a really brutal spot for Oregon but in this spot, I like them to get revenge. Everyone is going to want to bet Utah after their last performance against Oregon but this being at a neutral changes everything along with the fact that Oregon will be able to make big adjustments. They are also healthier than they were in that last matchup. I think Oregon salvages their season and moves Kyle Whittingham to 0-3 in PAC-12 Championship Games (most recently a 12-point loss to Oregon in 2019).
Pick: 1.5u Oregon +3
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (-5.5) o/u 46.5 (netural field)
This Baylor defense is legit. They have only allowed more than 24 points twice all season and never allowed more than 30. That’s including a dominant win a couple of weeks ago where they held Oklahoma to only 14 points, Caleb Williams to 10/19 passing for 146 yards and 2 INTs, and Kennedy Brooks to 51 rushing yards. That same Oklahoma offense just put up 33 points, 252 passing yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs, and Brooks has 132 rushing yards against OK State last week. Now, that is partially due to the fact that the Pokes seemed fine playing at that pace and trying to win in a shootout but my point is, you’ll hear a ton of hype around this Okie State defense when Baylor deserves just as much credit for what Dave Aranda has built. Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is questionable but I think he’ll be active even if he doesn’t play every drive. I think the balance of Bohanon being able to play some drives and the freshman Blake Shapen would actually be good for the Baylor offense. Shapen is young but in his roughly 3 halves as Baylor QB he has been pretty solid and most importantly has not thrown an INT. If he can protect the football and Baylor can run the ball, they should play good enough defense to stay inside this number.
Pick: 1.5u Baylor +5.5
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3.5) o/u 74.5 (neutral field)
MACtion baby! This game has been ruled by underdogs in recent years. MAC dogs are on an 11-4-1 run ATS and NIU specifically has only played close games this year. Excluding last week where NIU rested their starters, the average margin of victory (win or lose for NIU) in their MAC games has been by 4.3 PPG. I think this game will come right down to the wire just like all of their games this year and that gives the edge to the dog over 3 points. Kent State also has the worst special teams in the nation. They have no kicker and the guy who does their kickoffs can’t kick. Opponent’s average starting field position is the 35 which gives a huge edge to Rocky Lombardi and the Huskies’ offense. These two teams are also going to score non-stop. I can’t wait to watch.
Picks: 1u NIU +3.5, 0.5u o74.5
Wake Forest vs. Pitt (-3) o/u 71 (neutral field)
I’m rolling with Pitt here. I was scared off mid-week by the Pitt flu concerns but Kenny Pickett and crew are back at practice and should be 100% ready to go. Both of these offenses are electric and it’s two of the best QBs in the country facing off for the ACC. But what this comes down to for me is that Pitt’s defense is the superior unit, allowing around 24 PPG compared to Wake’s 30 PPG allowed. Wake giving up 56 points to Army is nearly impossible given the fact that UConn and UMass both allowed less. I don’t think Wake will be able to get a single stop and at the end of the day I think Kenny Pickett will be the one with the signature moment to win this game.
Pick: 1.5u Pitt -3
Rest of the Card
Those are all of the sides I’m playing but I like one more total small and two MLPs. I’ll give those picks out including my thoughts on every other game below and then list the full card.
0.5u Georgia/Bama o49.5– I think Bama will be able to put together a couple of drives against the Dawgs but more importantly I think Georgia will be able to hang a number on Bama’s secondary. I think both teams recognize the toughness of the opponents’ run defense and will go pass-heavy throughout this game, allowing for more possessions and more explosive plays.
1.5u UGA/Cincy/Michigan MLP- Georgia is winning this game. I have 3u on Georgia +225 to win the conference from preseason and I am not hedging a dollar, in fact I want to get more on them to win this game. They are really that much better than Bama. I would probably lay the number if I didn’t already have such a big futures position but I’m happy getting more down on the Dawgs to win. I also don’t know how Houston or Iowa will score points against their opponents. I think both lines are a bit inflated but can’t see either team losing (if Michigan drops to 10 flat I will bet it).
1.5u SDSU/UGA MLP- I really like this SDSU team but in what should be a low-scoring game I’m worried about laying the points. That being said, I’m paring them with the Dawgs and going all-in on Georgia like I have all year. LFG Dawgs.
The only Championship Game left to discuss is ULL/App State. I have a ULL preseason future that I’m letting ride and not touching anything else in the game. I think ULL is the more consistent team and App State has huge turnover issues that ULL can exploit. My only fear is Billy Napier being halfway out the door for Florida but this is not a Brian Kelly situation. Every player at ULL understands the jump from ULL to Florida and why Billy Napier is accepting that job. His players love him and I think they’ll want to send him out with his first Sun Belt Championship.
If you’re a real degen and want to bet the late game that’s a makeup game between Cal and USC I would find a way to get Cal into a MLP. USC is way too distracted by the Lincoln Riley saga and their current roster is in the dumpster. Half of those players are ready to transfer away when Lincoln brings all of his guys in to take their starting spots. Cal wins the game.
That’s it for Champ Weekend! Hopefully we win big and roll into Bowl SZN feeling good. Here’s the full card to recap:
1.5u WKU ML (-125)
1.5u Oregon +3
1.5u Baylor +5.5
1u NIU +3.5
0.5u NIU/Kent o74.5
1.5u UGA/SDSU MLP
0.5u UGA/Bama o49.5
1.5u UGA/Michigan/Cincy MLP
1.5u Pitt -3