ACC time! Let’s do it…
Catch up on the CFB Preview Series here:
Part One: Heisman Preview
Part Two: Overall CFB Landscape
Part Three: Sun Belt & C-USA Conference Previews
Part Four: MAC & Mountain West Conference Previews
Part Five: AAC & Independents Conference Previews
It’s an exciting time in the ACC. They are finally turning into a real conference for the first time in years. Pitt, NC State, Miami, Wake Forest, and others are on the rise and Clemson is coming down to their level a bit. In a conference where Clemson used to be a -500 lock to win, there is no plenty of value on the board with futures.
Win Total Over
NC State to win 10+ games (+125)- All aboard the Wolfpack train! NC State will start the season 4-0 before heading to Clemson for a huge showdown. NC State beat Clemson last year and I have faith that they can do it again. Even going into this thinking Clemson will beat NC State… after that game, the Pack has Florida State and Syracuse which should be two more wins.
One of their tougher opponents is VA Tech and NC State gets them at home off of a bye. Then they have Wake with Sam Hartman’s season up in the air and Boston College, also at home. Finally, they close with Louisville and UNC on the road to the season. Even if they do lose to Clemson, I can only see them dropping one more of those games in a random slip-up.
Win Total Under
Clemson u10.5 wins (-125)- I am so down on Clemson. I was one of the only people brave enough to fade them every week early in the season last year. DJ Uiagalelei is legitimately horrible and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is benched for their freshman stud come Week Four or Five. Unlike Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia, Clemson has had coordinator consistency over the last decade.
Brent Venables was the DC for a decade and made this defense what it was. Tony Elliott had been at Clemson since 2011 and was the OC from 2015-2021. That coordinator turnover will undoubtedly have major negative consequences and the lack of QB play will make it harder. This defense should still be really good but the offense will struggle. They have three home games they could lose- NC State, Miami, and South Carolina as well as four road games they could lose- Notre Dame, Florida State, Wake Forest, and Boston College. Those are a lot of tough tests for this team in transition.
Georgia Tech u3.5 wins (-125)- This one is a little more simple. The post-Paul Johnson triple-option era has been a disaster. Geoff Collins was given an impossible task but he has still underperformed. They have won three games in each of his three seasons and I don’t see any signs that they are ready to improve. Other than a (most likely) gimme win against Western Carolina, their out-of-conference games are Ole Miss, Georgia, and UCF which are comfortably three losses. I think they can beat Duke at home and that’s the only other win I see on their schedule. That gives a cushion for them to pull one upset and still go under.
NC State (+810)- If anyone is knocking Clemson out in the Atlantic it will be the Pack. Devin Leary is a monster. This team is loaded and ready to make a legit run at this conference. I love this value. This division could likely be decided by the head-to-head matchup and that ML will be much shorter than this.
Pitt (+890)- On the other side of the conference, I am backing Pitt to beat out Miami. I really like TVD and what Cristobal will be able to do long-term there but I think this year is too transitional. Narduzzi is going to have this team ready and I love the hiring of Frank Cignetti Jr. by Pitt. They are going to pound the rock and Kedon Slovis is capable of winning games on big drives. I back them to beat Miami and make it to the title game.
Tyler Van Dyke 35/1- TVD should put up big numbers but I don’t back Miami to even make the ACC Championship Game let alone the playoff which basically precludes him from winning the Heisman.
DJ Uiagalelei 45/1- This guy stinks.
Devin Leary 50/1- HERE WE GO! If you read my Heisman preview earlier in the year, you know we got Devin Leary 150/1 and he has now dropped all the way to 50/1. I believe in him to lead this team to an ACC Championship and contend for a playoff spot. I think he will make it to New York and if something happens that stops the big two (Stroud and Young) from winning then Leary is my guy.
Clemson (+800)- Clemson is fourth in total odds to win it all but I think there is ZERO value here. They need to be pretty flawless to even make the playoff out of the ACC and as I’ve made clear, I don’t think they will even win the conference. Fade them to make the playoff if you can.
That’s it for the ACC! The train keeps rolling with the Big 12 tomorrow…