Catch up on the CFB Preview Series here:
Part One: Heisman Preview
Part Two: Overall CFB Landscape
Part Three: Sun Belt & C-USA Conference Previews
Part Four: MAC & Mountain West Conference Previews
Part Five: AAC & Independents Conference Previews
Part Six: ACC Preview
Part Seven: Big 12 Preview
Part Eight: Pac-12 Preview
Part Nine: Big 10 Preview
It’s SEC time! We’ve been messing around with the little guys for the last few days but now… it’s time. The defending champ Dawgs look to repeat, the best to ever do it (Saban) looks for revenge, a QB carousel of transfers makes LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and South Carolina very interesting, and Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Arkansas look to battle over the SEC second-tier championship. Let’s do it…
Win Total Over
South Carolina o6.5 wins (+120)- Rattler SZN baby. Shane Beamer is building an amazing culture in Columbia. They won 7 games in his first season (including a bowl) and that was with a graduate assistant starting the majority of the games at QB. Now they have the 2021 Heisman preseason favorite. They have a stable of underrated skill position players and I think this offense will click from the start.
SC has five solid wins on the board with Georgia State, Charlotte, Vandy, Missouri at home, and SC State. They also have very winnable games against Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee. Then don’t be shocked if they upset Georgia, Clemson, or Texas A&M. Say what you want but a QB like Spencer Rattler at the top of his game could beat any team.
Mississippi State o6.5 wins (-130)- This team won 7 games last year and I think they are a decent amount better this year. Their defense is 8th in the nation in returning production and could be a top-5 unit in the nation. It is year three for Mike Leach and a second full year for Will Rogers. This air-raid offense should be firing and should do enough with how solid this defense will be. The Cowbells are one of the most underrated teams in the country and could challenge for the honor of being the 2nd best team in the SEC West.
Win Total Under
Missouri u5.5 wins (-145)- Missouri has a rough schedule and I don’t like their team at all. They have two layups with Abilene Christian and New Mexico State at home, LA Tech should also be a winner. However, after that all of their weakest opponents they have to see on the road- Kansas State, Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee. They should beat Vanderbilt which would give them four wins but I can’t see them winning two games from that other group of games to go over this total.
They have awful luck that their four home SEC games are against the three pre-season ranked SEC teams and Vandy. So the teams they would lose to anyways they get to host and the team they would beat anyways they host. Tough luck for the Tigers but I can’t see them winning 6.
Alabama (-130)- This is a great number. I think Georgia will slightly underperform and Bama will be as good as advertised. That means that the moneyline in the SEC Championship Game will be a good bit longer than this -130 number. I think it’s worth laying it with the Tide.
Bryce Young (+380)- Bryce Young is insane but people don’t really repeat. Even if Bryce and Stroud have the same numbers, voters will give it to Stroud because Young already won one. That being said, I think Stroud’s numbers will be better anyways so there is no value here.
Will Anderson Jr. (15/1)- I bet Will Anderson to win the Heisman at 60/1. He is now 15/1. Every ounce of value has been drained out of this number. As a defensive player, it is so damn hard to win this award but if he’s healthy all year he should be in New York. He is that good.
Hendon Hooker (40/1)- I actually like Hooker a lot but… no.
Anthony Richardson (60/1)- AR15 might still be a year away- I have a feeling I will be betting him to win the Heisman next year the day after this season ends. However, I am still taking my chances on him here. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing ever if Florida beats Georgia and wins the East this year. AR15 has the talent to be a Heisman-winning QB.
Will Levis (50/1)- He is good but Kentucky is not.
Spencer Rattler (55/1)- There is sneaky value here based on the fact that he was the favorite before last season. South Carolina does have underrated weapons on offense so Rattler could put up huge numbers. However, the Cocks just won’t be quite good enough to get Rattler to New York. If I’m not betting this then no one should.
Max Johnson (80/1)- I bet this earlier in the season but don’t like it as much anymore. I’m not gonna tell people to rush to go bet it but I still insist there is value here. Max Johnson should be the starting QB all year for the second-best team in the SEC. They are right towards the top of the Natty odds board which means he has a chance to get to New York if he has a big year.
Alabama (+175)- Bama deserves to be the favorite. I am an Ohio State guy but I would be shocked if it’s not a Bama/OSU Natty and Bama should be short favorites in that game.
Georgia (+400)- This number is a joke. Georgia will be dogs to Bama in the SEC Championship Game and I think Georgia will drop at least one game during the regular season. They might barely sneak into the playoff if the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12 all suck but I don’t think they’ll make it.
Texas A&M (25/1)- It’s the same old song and dance with the Aggies. They are a top-10 favorite to win the national championship but they won’t beat Alabama. Their only chance at the playoff is beating everyone besides Alabama and sneaking into the playoff at 11-1 without having to play a conference championship.
That’s it for the SEC! The best bets wrap-up is coming tomorrow and then we are on to Week Zero. LET’S. FUCKING. GO.