A wild CFB Week One is in the books. Between Pitt/WVU, UNC/App State, BC/Rutgers, LSU/FSU, and Florida/Utah there was not a single moment of calm the entire weekend. We saw crazy shootouts and crazy upsets. That results in interesting betting results. Unfortunately for us, things did not break our way. I don’t want to make excuses because this is a season-long grind and you will get some good breaks and some bad breaks. HOWEVA, if Cam Rising doesn’t throw a pick in the end zone on the final drive and BC doesn’t choke away that game by scoring zero 2H points then we would have a winning record on the season.
My point is, small breaks will come each way all season and hopefully everyone can hang in through the ups and downs and focus on the final goal which is a winning season. For week two, it isn’t the best slate and my card is shorter than last week but there are still some good spots both from a betting perspective and a neutral fan perspective.
CFB YTD: 13-15 -6.81u
Week Two Marquee Games
Alabama @ Texas (+20) o/u 65.5
Could Texas be back??? They handled business week one against… ULM but this will be a much different test. In my opinion, this game really just comes down to what Nick Saban wants to do. Texas still has a lot of question marks defensively and Bryce Young could shred them if everything goes right. Quinn Ewers is also making his second career start against maybe the best defense in all of college football.
I could see this being a route but I could also see this being a “Bama gets their lead and sits on it” type of game. For that reason, I think the safer play is the first half. I think Bama will come out hot and take control of the game early. Then they will probably focus more on the running game and just making it out of Austin healthy. I think the 20 will come down to a potential backdoor from Texas.
Pick: 1u Alabama 1H -11.5
BYU (-3) vs. Baylor o/u 53.5
This is probably the best game of the weekend from a neutral fan perspective. This is a revenge spot for BYU at home after they lost to Baylor on the road last season. These are two teams I am very high on this year and I think this game will come down to small margins. BYU’s offense looked electric last week and that was without Gunner Romney at WR which unironically is a huge piece for them. Romney is supposed to be back this week and should help Jaren Hall a lot in the quick pass game.
Despite them laying a 69 nice-burger on Albany last week, I’m not quite as high on Baylor’s offense. Defensively, I think they will always be sharp under Aranda. However, I think this big physical BYU defense could present them with some problems. This game could come down to a big turnover on either side but if that’s the case I have more faith in the Cougs with one of the best home-field advantages in college football. Don’t mess with the points, Cougs win.
Pick: BYU/Arkansas MLP (+113)
Florida (-6) vs. Kentucky o/u 51.5
Florida is coming off a huge win against Utah where AR15 looked like a legit Heisman candidate. On the other side, Kentucky didn’t look great against Miami Ohio but they took care of business. Everyone is high on Will Levis but if I had to pick a QB between the two it’s AR15. In the Kentucky running game, starting RB Chris Rodriguez is still suspended and one of the backups Ramon Jefferson just tore an ACL. That really just leaves Kavosiey Smoke who could not get much production against Miami Ohio.
Defensively, I think Florida will be able to fully focus on stopping Will Levis because of the lack of run game and their big boys on the DL will get pressure. Despite having a big game last week, Florida has the luxury of staying home in front of a crowd that should be insanely rowdy after what they saw last week. Before 2018, Florida had beaten Kentucky an absurd 31 times in a row. Kentucky finally overcame in 2018 and then Florida bounced back with two convincing wins. Last year, Kentucky took them down again and I think this sets up for another Florida revenge spot.
Pick: 2u Florida -3.5 (hopefully everyone got this when I gave it out last week)
Those are the three games I feel like everyone will want to bet on this weekend. Here is the rest of my card:
1.5u Arkansas/SC o52.5- Both of these secondaries looked very questionable last week and I really like both QBs. I think the pace in this game will be really high and this will be back and forth most of the way.
1.5u Georgia State +7 vs. UNC- GA State had some bad luck to not cover against SC last week with special teams mistakes but this UNC team stinks. I think GA State will be much more composed at home and UNC will let down after last week.
1u Bama 1H -11.5- see above
1u BYU/Arkansas MLP- Hogs will find a way to win because of their edge in the trenches.
1u Maryland -27.5 vs. Charlotte- Charlotte is insanely bad and Taulia is looking for a game to put up insane numbers. This seems like a good one.
1u Texas A&M -10 vs. App State- This is similar to the Alabama/Texas cap. TAMU could probably run this thing up but have no reason to with the SEC slate ahead. App State should also let down after the UNC game and their offense will be in for a shock after facing the UNC swiss cheese D last week.
0.5u Iowa State +4 vs. Iowa- This one is disgusting. Iowa’s offense is insanely bad and Iowa State lost their whole offense from last year. Matt Campbell can never beat Iowa but I have a weird feeling that this year he gets it done now that Breece Hall and Brock Purdy are gone and he “shouldn’t” win. Can’t wait for four Iowa to win 6-0 on three safeties.
1u Houston +3.5 vs. TTU- I love this Houston team. Clayton Tune is electric and he had an awesome game-winning run against UTSA last week. I think they will be insanely high for this in-state rivalry and will cherish the chance to beat a P5 team.
1u UVA +4.5 vs. Illinois- I have faith in Brennan Armstrong to be able to score more than Tommy Devito and that’s really what this comes down to.
2u Florida -3.5 vs. Kentucky- see above
1u Stanford +11.5 vs. USC- USC benefited from multiple pick-sixes last week but Tanner McKee will not grant them the same gifts. I think USC will be a little shocked against some real competition this week.
1u ASU/OKST o54.5- OKST’s defense is not the same without Jim Knowles. They were embarrassed by Central Michigan last week and I think ASU will be able to put up numbers. ASU also doesn’t have much on defense and Spencer Sanders should meet his quota.
0.75u BC +3 vs. VT- I don’t know why I’m doing this. BC killed me last week but I also cashed a +200 ML fading VT so… which one do I follow? I think VT is still in a worse spot overall when it comes to QB and coaching so I’ll take my chances with a BC bounceback.
1u Miss State -10 vs. Arizona- Arizona looked great in week one against San Diego State but this Cowbell defense is a different story. They should struggle to put up points while Will Rogers will continue to cook.
That’s the card. Let’s get a winning week in the books and chip towards a positive season.