Week Three. This is our last week before things really kick into high gear and we’re basically in conference play across most of the board. There are still some good spots on the board for betting and as a natural fan so it should be another great Saturday.
Last week was mostly a wash from the perspective of our card. I bet a few SEC teams which all failed but I also bet a few Fun Belt teams so it mostly evened out. I’m still waiting for a big week to hit so we can get this season-long number back towards even and then we can start building a profit. Hopefully, that week is this week. Let’s get into the games.
CFB YTD: 22-23 -6.69u
Week Two Marquee Games
There aren’t too many high-profile games this weekend and maybe the most high-profile of the slate, Oregon/BYU, I literally have no play on. So here are a couple big games everyone should be watching that I have an angle on:
Penn State (-3) @ Auburn o/u 47.5
I bet Penn State +1 on the lookahead a couple of weeks ago when it appeared that TJ Finley was having some legal troubles. I noted under my pick on the Action app that I didn’t think the suspension would last 3 games and it didn’t. However, whether Finley’s legal problems were related or not, I was right in assuming this Auburn team would struggle early.
Week One against FCS Mercer, Finley threw two picks and Auburn didn’t look great in the trenches on either side of the ball. Last week Finley threw a pick and 0 TDs against a much less talented San Jose State team. Auburn has a lot of issues across the board but especially at QB which has Brian Harsin on the hot seat.
Sean Clifford is still a scary QB to back but I do think his experience will help on the road in an SEC environment. I’m rolling with the more trustworthy team in State Penn.
Pick: 1.5u PSU +1 (would play to -3 or include in a MLP with a bigger fav)
Miami (+6.5) @ Texas A&M o/u 44.5
Holy shit Texas A&M. These are two teams I was selling the hype on early in the season and they have proved me very correct. Texas A&M is coming off an embarrassing home defeat to App State and they have spent the last week scrubbing their embarrassing content off of the world wide web. Miami is still 2-0 and has undoubtedly looked much better than A&M but they have not been without their own struggles.
It goes against all of the +EV principles in the world, but I think the Miami ML is the smartest play here. There are a few of these spots a season that could really go either way. Either A&M bounces back hard (the most likely cause would be a QB switch that clicks) or they are really just a dead dog. So if Max Johnson comes in and lights it up then A&M could get out of this home game with a double-digit win. But if the QB position fails and the defense continues to look weak then Miami should leave College Station with a W.
Pick: Miami ML +190
That’s it for the marquee games! Very underwhelming, I know, but next week things start to turn up a notch. Here is the rest of my card as of Friday morning:
1.5u FSU ML (-120) vs. Louisville- I like what I’ve seen from FSU. Their front 7 is legit and so is Jordan Travis. Louisville bounced back nicely against UCF but they still have a lot of issues.
1u Nebraska +14.5 vs. Oklahoma- I jumped on this number the minute Scott Frost was fired. He was an absolute dead dog loser and I think there is talent on this team. I like the interim guy for the Huskers and think they rise to the occasion here.
1u WKU/Indiana o61.5- Indiana’s secondary is horrific and WKU loves to sling the ball.
1u UGA/South Carolina o53.5- South Carolina’s defense is no match for what UGA has to offer. SC should keep the tempo high and they should continue to put up points like last week against the Hogs.
1u Syracuse PK vs. Purdue- Syracuse has been one of the surprise teams of the year so far. They have been dominant through two games and Sean Tucker is a real deal RB1. Protect the Dome.
1u Buffalo +14 vs. Coastal- Coastal nearly lost to Gardner Webb last week and they were very lucky against Army Week One. Fade em.
1u Tulane +14.5 vs. Kansas State- Adrian Martinez blows ass. Willie Fritz is always frisky in these spots. Roll Wave.
1.5u Penn State +1 vs. Auburn- State Penn.
1u NMSU/Wisco u46.5- I’ve been on NMSU as an under team all year. Their defense is really competitive for the level they play at and their offense is a joke. They went under by 13 points Week 0, 15 points Week One, and 14 points Week Two. Wisconsin’s offense is a joke and they should just run the ball a billion times and score 35ish. NMSU might not score at all with one fluke at the most.
1u UAB -11.5 vs. GA Southern- UAB always seems to handle their business against inferior teams and GATA should be majorly let down after a historic win against Nebraska.
1u Houston -10 vs. Kansas- I really like Kansas but this is a principle play with the Cougs. They held on to cover for me last week against TTU and I think the offense lets loose here.
1.5u Miss State ML (-128) vs. LSU- Another principle play here. I have bet Miss State both weeks and both have been pretty comfortable covers. Top to bottom I think their roster is better than LSU’s.
1.5u Washington ML (-120) vs. Sparty- I got this one early and beat some significant movement. I am still down on Sparty this year and I am decently high on Washington. Washington’s offense has looked insane so far and I think they win a shootout here.
1u Nevada/Iowa u40.5- Oh baby. These might be the two worst offenses in all of FBS. Petras is still in at QB and Young Ferentz is still running the offense which means Iowa’s CEILING is 28 points even against this awful team. Nevada won’t score more than 7.
1u UTSA +12.5 vs. Texas- Meep meep. Despite losing last week the Horns could still be in let down mode here. A banged-up Hudson Card will be playing QB and this team has to be emotionally exhausted. Meanwhile, this is UTSA’s Super Bowl just like last week was for Texas.
1u Miami ML (+190) vs. TAMU- see above
1u Fresno State +12.5 vs. USC- Jake Haener is a Cali kid who never got an offer from USC. He has a chip on his shoulder and I think this offense can hang with anyone.
Let’s have a week.