It was another great weekend of college football. There were a lot of wild finishes and as always some crazy spread drama. For us, it was a really good week- going 19-12 for +6.4u. I fulfilled my promise two weeks ago of getting us close to even and then followed through again last week to get us into the green. It is now a new season and we are looking to build forward. It was totally accidental but going into Friday I have placed exactly 100 bets so far this season. There is much more to come. We push on.
CFB YTD: 56-44 +4.45u
This is BY FAR the best CFB slate of the season so far. We have five different matchups of ranked vs ranked teams with three or four more top-tier matchups involving ranked teams. Of the five ranked vs ranked matchups, I have a play for four of them so that’s what I’ll be fully writing up here. Check the full card for everything else.
Kentucky @ Ole Miss (-6.5/7) o/u 54.5
This is maybe the most intriguing matchup of the weekend in terms of these being two top-15 teams that we still don’t know that much about. Will Levis has not lived up to expectations so far but he has also been without the compliment of RB Chris Rodriguez until this week. Ole Miss has played a lot of bad teams and taken care of business but no more than that.
Based on how this game goes we will hopefully know a lot more about both of these teams moving forward. At the end of the day, I do trust Levis more than Dart and I think the return of Chris Rodriguez will help balance out the Kentucky offense. I think this will be lower scoring than people think and would lean to the under but I like the points more. There are 7s on the board so make sure to grab one, I would take a 7 at -120 over a 6.5 just in case.
Pick: 1u Kentucky +7
Alabama @ Arkansas (+17.5) o/u 61
This is always a scary one folks. It’s never fun to fade Bama, especially in this spot we’ve seen so many times. An SEC West foe that’s a 14-21 point dog and people say “ooh they could test Bama!” Then Bama wins by 35. However, as the Bear and many others have pointed out, that has not necessarily been the case for Bama in true road games in recent years.
I think KJ Jefferson and the rushing attack of Arkansas will help to dictate the pace and they will put enough points up to stay within this number.
Pick: 1u Arkansas +17.5
Oklahoma State @ Baylor (-2.5) o/u 55.5
This is a fraud check on Oklahoma State. Spencer Sanders is being highly regarded by some media after playing well against *checks notes* Arizona State (fired coach), Central Michigan (MAC), and Pine Bluff (FCS). Well some of us remember Spencer Sanders played Dave Aranda’s Baylor defense twice last year and ended up with 1 passing TD and 7 INTs. SEVEN INTERCEPTIONS IN TWO GAMES. Aranda knows how to expose Sanders and this offense and he will do it again here. Last week was a good win for Baylor against Iowa State and I think they will build off of that with another win here.
Pick: 1.5u Baylor -2.5
NC State @ Clemson (-7) o/u 45
We tried to fade Clemson 1H last week and lost due to some unfortunate breaks. However, we bought back in on Wake Forest 2H and made it back. Clemson really should have lost that game. Their secondary is horrendous and if the hyped-up Devin Leary wants to have a career moment- this game is his chance. I think NC State is much better defensively than Wake and they will do better at containing DJU. I think this game is another coinflip just like Wake was last week. Take the points.
Pick: 1.5u NC State +7
Friday Night Lights: 1u UTSA -4 @ MTSU- MTSU is coming off a program-defining win against Miami and now has to play on a short week. If ever there was a let-down spot, this is one. I like Frank Harris a lot and think he will be a handful for MTSU on this short week.
Friday Night Lights: 1.5u Washington -2.5 @ UCLA- There is legit worry about how Washington’s run D will hold up but I have faith in Penix and the passing attack to outscore UCLA at the end of the night. The whole “sharp” world is on UCLA and I am on Penix Island (not Pen Island). If you would like to join me there (again Penix, not Pen) then you will be welcomed with open arms.
1u Navy +14 @ Air Force- This is a principle play on a service academy dog vs another service academy. Air Force defense seems somewhat fraudulent.
1u Kentucky +7 @ Ole Miss- see above
1u BC +14.5 vs. Louisville- Louisville stinks. BC has massively underperformed. Something’s gotta give. #JurkoFetish
1u Iowa +10.5 vs. Michigan- Kinnick magic. Iowa has won 5 of their last 6 home games against top-5 opponents, 2 of those coming when Iowa was unranked. Punts. Defense. Iowa.
1.5u Arkansas +17.5 vs. Bama- see above
1.5u Baylor -2.5 vs. OK State- see above
1u Michigan State +7.5 @ Maryland- I have looted so far fading Mel Tucker but I think this has gone too far. After a battle last week against Michigan on the road, I think Maryland will let down a bit here. If MSU and Mel have literally anything in their tank they will use it here to try to get a much-needed win.
1.5u Cowbells -2.5 vs. TAMU- Texas A&M is the fraud of all frauds. Another lucky win last week got us a number under 3 on Miss State at home. The line has since driven up but I would still play it up to 5.5. Will Rogers should put up enough points to hold off this incompetent Aggie offense.
1u Charlotte +3 vs. UTEP- Charlotte looked great against SC when Chris Reynolds was in. He’s back this week and should light up the UTEP D.
1u GA Southern +10.5 @ CC- The wind could be wild in Conway which is huge for this matchup. Grayson McCall and Coastal just want to throw. GA Southern runs the triple option. That gives them a huge edge in potentially bad weather. Regardless of the weather, this is a great chance to fade the fraudulent Chants.
1u UGA/Mizzou u54.5- After last week, Georgia’s defense should be fully locked in. If Mizzou scores more than 7 I would be shocked. I’d even be kinda surprised about 7. Once they’re up, UGA has no reason to show too much/run it up with Auburn next week.
1.5u NC State +7 @ Clemson- see above
1u Colorado +17.5 @ Arizona- All-time buy low. Colorado has been horrific and is 0-4 ATS. However, they made a QB switch last week that looks promising. Preseason people thought Arizona was a joke. This line is super inflated and we should see regression to the mean on both sides.
That’s it! Let’s have a week and as always…