Another week in the books and we are headed in the right direction. It looked like we had the potential for a Hall of Fame Saturday after the noon slate but things took a slight downhill turn late in the night. Despite that, we gained over 5 units on the day and it got us close to even on the year. Hopefully, this week can get us over the hump and into the green. A place we should stay for the rest of the year.
CFB YTD: 36-32 -1.7u
Clemson (-7) @ Wake Forest o/u 55.5
This game is tough. I definitely see an angle where Clemson lays it on Wake like they have the last few years. Their front seven is stacked and that should give the Wake OL some issues. Luckily for Wake, they love to sling it and let Sam Hartman make all the choices in the RPO game. I do think Hartman can take advantage of their secondary which is not as strong as the boys up front.
Offensively, I am still not a believer in DJ and this Clemson offense. Their overall numbers are decent but it has been more of a case of their superior athletes slowly grinding down inferior opponents. In their two FBS games this year they only led LA Tech 10-9 at halftime and GA Tech 14-3 with one of those TDs coming on a drive that started at the opponent’s 5 after a blocked punt.
Unfortunately, I do think Clemson will still find a way to win this game but there is definitely something to their slow starts. They will look to run the ball a lot early and control the pace of play. They want to keep the ball out of Sam Hartman’s hands and quiet the Wake crowd that should be wild. That’s why I’m going with the 1H angle here.
Pick: Wake Forest 1H +4.5
Arkansas (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M o/u 50.5 (neutral field)
This really is a fascinating matchup. A&M has looked horrific. They lost to App State at home, had A LOT of things break their way to beat Miami at home, and overall they are averaging less than 21 PPG. They have made the switch to Max Johnson at QB but he did nothing to impress me against Miami.
Arkansas had a legit scare against Missouri State last weekend but it could be chalked up to a look ahead to this huge matchup. In general, I have more faith in the Hogs. I don’t like their defense very much but if they load up the box and make Max Johnson throw, I don’t think he can exploit their weaknesses.
Last year we saw the Hogs give up nothing through the air, run the ball effectively, and break a couple of big plays to secure a win in this matchup. I think the game plan will be mostly the same and they will be able to pull out another victory.
Pick: 1u Arkansas +2.5
USC (-6) @ Oregon State o/u 70.5
The Trojans’ offense is nasty. Caleb Williams is playing great in Riley’s familiar system and the weapons are exceeding expectations. However, when it comes to things like turnover luck and injury luck they have been the most fortunate team in the nation. Their defense has racked up 10 takeaways through 3 games and they are yet to turn the ball over themselves. We also saw Fresno State’s stud QB Jake Haener leave the game early last week.
USC is due for some negative regression and this underrated Oregon State team with their home crowd should create an environment to bring about that regression. This should be a shootout but I do think the Beavers will be able to make some key stops and their offense will be able to go shot-for-shot with the Trojans. The Corvalis crowd will be insane and I think we see them pull off the upset here.
Pick: 1u Oregon State +6, 1u Oregon State ML +190
2u TCU ML -120 @ SMU- I talked in the offseason about how much I like this TCU team. I think their offense will overpower and Sonny Dykes will win his homecoming game.
2u UNC -1 vs. Notre Dame- The Irish offense is a joke. Drake Maye can seriously sling the ball and I really don’t think the Irish will be able to keep up.
1.5u Maryland +17 @ Michigan- Michigan has played nobody. Literally. They have played maybe the worst 3 teams in FBS. This Maryland offense could stun them a bit out of the gates and as long as Maryland doesn’t go down 21-0 early like they usually do in big games, I have faith in them to cover especially with that big backdoor angle.
1u Wake Forest 1H +4.5 vs. Clemson- see above
1u Florida/Tenn o62.5– Points. I think if we are ever gonna see life out of AR15 it will be in this big matchup. Vawls should score 40 on their own.
1u JMU +7.5 (-122) @ App State- This is a prove-it game for the Dukes and I’m buying. App State has been a whirlwind the last two weeks with an upset over a top-10 team, College Gameday coming to town, and a Hail Mary win last week. Now little old JMU is coming to town and if the two-week emotional whirlwind takes its toll I would not be surprised.
1u Texas -7 @ Texas Tech- There is still a chance Quinn Ewers plays and even if he doesn’t, I think Hudson Card can manage this offense well. Texas has proved to us that we should trust them so far this year against all different kinds of opponents so I will here. I don’t think the Raiders have enough to hang.
1u Cincy -16.5 vs. Indiana- The Hoosiers stink. They were VERY lucky to beat WKU. They were lucky to beat Illinois. They were unimpressive against Idaho. Meanwhile, Cincy only lost by 7 at Arkansas to start the year and took care of business against their two cupcake opponents. I think this is their chance to really prove it and put up a big score against a P5 team.
1u Washington/Minnesota ML (+101)– Michael Penix. Duh. Fade Mel Tucker. Duh.
1u Liberty -26.5 vs. Akron- I don’t get why the market likes Akron here. Akron is so so so bad. They lost 63-3 to Tennessee and 52-0 to Michigan State. They only won by 7 as 18-point favorites to St. Francis. Meanwhile, Liberty beat a good Southern Miss team, upset a good UAB team, and was a 2-point conversion away from beating a great Wake Forest team. They should name the score here.
1u South Alabama -13.5 vs. LA Tech- LA Tech took a physical pounding from Clemson’s athletes last week and they should still be feeling it here. I really like this South Alabama team that should have beat UCLA last week. I think they roll here at home.
1u Arkansas +2.5 vs. A&M- see above
1u Iowa/Rutgers u35– how could you not? This is college football. Punts galore.
1u Northern Illinois +26.5 @ Kentucky- I have not been impressed with Kentucky so far. Will Levis hasn’t shown some of the stuff we saw last year. Somehow the Cats still have grinded out three covers which gives us a favorable number here. With a huge matchup @ Ole Miss next week I think the Cats will take it light here and the MAC team will win their Super Bowl.
1u Southern Miss +13 @ Tulane- Tulane is coming off a huge upset over Kansas State. They are due to let down some here. I also really like this Southern Miss team. They are 3-0 ATS and they have the great Frank Gore Jr. that can confuse any team trying to gameplan against him.
1u Charlotte/South Carolina o65.5– South Carolina went way over against Arkansas. They went under the closing number last week but went over the number we bet. Charlotte has gone over the past three weeks. Chris Reynolds is back at QB for Charlotte and with him, this offense is a different beast. South Carolina has some talent on offense but has been killed by their horrendous offensive line play. That shouldn’t be an issue against this Charlotte team that gets no pressure. 45-35 South Carolina final score.
1u Wisconsin/Ohio State o56.5– Ohio State’s offense has found its groove. They can score on anybody. Braelon Allen is capable of breaking a few big ones so that Wisco can get points of their own.
1u FAU/Purdue u58.5– Purdue has some injuries that will limit their offense on Saturday. The FAU offense only scored 14 points when they finally played a real team in UCF.
1u Kansas State/OK u53– I bet Tulane last week and they won outright because Adrian Martinez BLOWS. Deuce Vaughn is a beast but a heavy workload from him only helps the under. This KSU defense did hold an SEC team in Missouri to only 12 points so they do have juice on that side of the ball. I think both defenses show up and both offenses take a slower approach.
1u BC +17.5 @ FSU- I already know I’m going to regret this one but I can’t help it over 17. BC is 0-3 ATS with losses to bad Virginia Tech and Rutgers teams. On the other side, FSU has looked great. They are off to a rare 3-0 start and have beaten LSU and Louisville. However, there is a sick sick part of me that can’t quit Phil Jurkovec and I think they can score enough to stay within this number.
1u Oregon State +6 vs. USC- see above
1u Oregon State ML +190 vs. USC- see above
1u Washington/Stanford o59.5– Stanford is coming off a rare early bye so their offensive gameplan should be pretty sharp. Tanner McKee can sling and should have some success here. Michael Penix is looking like one of the best QBs in college football and we saw USC hang 41 on this Stanford defense. I think both teams put up huge numbers and Washington wins late.
That’s it! Let’s have a week and as always…