This season has flown by. There are only three weeks left in the regular season but there is a lot of drama still left to unfold in almost every conference. LSU can clinch the SEC West with a win and an Ole Miss loss this weekend. Georgia can clinch the SEC East with a win over Mississippi State. At the top of both the Pac-12 and Big 12, there are a few teams that could still make their respective championship game with a lot on the line this weekend. On top of that, the CFP race could shape up a lot after some of the matchups this weekend. We can dive more into that next week, but for now… let’s get into the games.
CFB YTD: 110-93-1 (54.2%) -0.52u
UCF @ Tulane (-1.5) o/u 54.5
This is where College Gameday should have been this week. The AAC has been really exciting this season and Tulane has been at the top of that list. Michael Pratt and Tyjae Spears have quietly been the most electric duo in college football. This is the best Tulane team in decades and I think they will win this game. UCF has not been the same team away from home while Tulane has been the best ATS team in football no matter the venue or situation. John Rhys Plumlee is making his return at QB for UCF and I think there could be some rest since he has missed the last three halves of UCF football. Roll Wave.
Pick: 1.5u Tulane ML (-114)
Washington @ Oregon (+13.5) o/u 69.5
BLAKEY PENIX JR. TIME! My guy Michael Penix Jr. finally has the chance to showcase his skills on a big stage. Oregon and Bo Nix have been getting a lot of love for rolling through their post-Georgia schedule. However, I still think this team has flaws, particularly on the defensive end. Michael Penix Jr. is leading all of FBS football in passing yards and he will exploit the Oregon defensive flaws. Bo Nix will also get his because this Washington defense stinks. But I think this will be a one-score game and Washington will have a chance to win. Expect a lot of points and swings here in maybe the most fun game of the slate.
Picks: 2u Washington +13.5, 1u o69.5
TCU @ Texas (-7) o/u 65
I have had a lot of fun betting on TCU this season and I still hold a Big 12 future on them from before the season but their undefeated season dreams end here. Texas is playing really good football on both sides of the ball right now. This will be the best defense TCU has faced in a while and the balanced attack of Ewers/Bijan will be really tough for their defense to contain. I think Texas hangs a BIG number here and TCU has its biggest offensive struggle of the season. Horns BIG.
Pick: 2u Texas -7, 2u Texas/Bama MLP (-145)
Alabama @ Ole Miss (-11.5) o/u 64.5
I somewhat spoiled my thoughts above but I think this game will go pretty much according to the script. Both of these teams should go pretty rush heavy but both should be able to move the ball pretty effectively. At the end of the day when a big drive is needed I trust Bryce Young 100x more than Jaxon Dart. I think Ole Miss can hang around but Alabama will win the football game. I think the backdoor could be wide open for Ole Miss to cover this number so I am staying away but love Bama in the MLP with the Horns.
Friday Night Lights- 1.5u USC -33.5 vs. Colorado- Colorado is so bad. USC needs style points. They roll.
1u UConn +14.5 vs. Liberty- UConn is a covering machine and Liberty is an all-time let-down spot after beating Arkansas last week. It’s tough to go to Storrs and play UConn after beating an SEC team. Go Huskies.
1.5u Navy +17 vs. Notre Dame- Service academy dogs are always great and this is another let-down spot with Notre Dame coming off of their win over Clemson. Go Midshipmen.
1u Vandy +17.5 @ Kentucky- Kentucky has Georgia next week and their banged-up roster will probably just want to get out of this one clean. Vandy has been much more competitive this season and I think they could grab a cover here.
1.5u Arkansas +3.5 vs. LSU- LSU with the biggest let-down spot in history and Arkansas with the biggest bounce-back spot in history. Give us SEC West chaos please, Hogs.
1u Michigan State -9.5 vs. Rutgers- Rutgers is awful and has been worse on the road. Sparty is getting healthier and should dominate at home.
1u App State ML (-118) @ Marshall- Marhsall’s offense has been feeble as of late, only averaging 14 PPG over their last four games. App State and Chase Brice should just be too much offense for them to keep up with.
1u Iowa State/OK State u48.5– No Spencer Sanders again most likely. Iowa State is just becoming Iowa. Their defense is filthy and their offense is a clown show. Under.
1.5u Louisville +7.5 @ Clemson- Clemson is a fraud. They have been a fraud. Now they face a Lousiville team that has been under the radar very good. They have won four straight games, all by double-digits. Clemson should be defeated in this spot. Malik Cunningham runs wild. Cards.
1.5u Tulane (-114) vs. UCF- see above
1u Wisco ML (-115) @ Iowa- These teams are pretty similar in their make-up but Wisconsin just has a bit more talent, particularly at the RB position. In this game where breaking one big play could win you the game, I’ll go with the Badgers and Braelon Allen.
2u Alabama/Texas MLP (-145)– see above
1u South Carolina +8 @ Florida- The Cocks got back on track with a good performance against Vandy. Yes, it was Vandy, but South Carolina’s offensive playcalling was drastically different than in previous weeks and rumors out of Columbia are that Marcus Satterfield is giving away some of the play-calling and game-planning duties. They are feeding their talented skill-position guys and Florida can’t stop anybody.
1.5u Mississippi State +17 vs. Georgia- Another massive let-down spot on this card. Georgia looked like an average team against Kent State, Missouri, and others during the middle stretch of this season. Then they turned it up and proved it against the Vawls. Now the Dawgs can coast their way to the SEC Championship and make the playoff even if they lose, most likely. I think Will Rogers goes off here and the Dawgs could find themselves down early and have to crawl out of a hole.
2u Washington +13.5 @ Oregon, 1u o69.5– see above
1.5u Southern Miss +5 @ Coastal- No Grayson McCall for Coastal. If you have watched their games this year he has single-handedly carried this team. The supporting cast is not good enough to support a backup QB. Frank Gore Jr. game.
0.5u Wake/UNC o76.5, 0.5u Wake 1H -2.5– This game will be a ton of fun. Both secondaries are awful. Both QBs are electric. The last two Wake/UNC games have finished 59-53 and 58-55. These teams know each other well and know that they need to score touchdowns every drive to win. There will be a lot of big plays and this total will run forever. I am backing Wake in the 1H where they have been much better this year and then I will be ready to back UNC 2H if Wake is up.
2u Texas -7 vs. TCU- see above
Let’s have an awesome week! And as always…