Two weeks to go… we have our table-setter this week before rivalry weekend to cap off the season. I am calling this Pac-12 semi-final weekend. USC and UCLA will battle for LA as USC looks to keep the conference’s CFP hopes alive. Oregon and Utah battle as well (with potentially no Bo Nix??) in a game that would effectively eliminate the loser of the game from conference contention. It has not been the ideal season from a season-long betting perspective for me but as always it has been an incredibly fun ride. Thanks to all of those who have supported and hopefully we can get hot heading into the conference championships and Bowl SZN and end up with a solid season profit.
CFB YTD: 123-106-1 (53.7%) -1.22u
WELCOME TO SQUARE WEEK! Not to spoil my picks already but I love being a square this week. I have been burned by a lot of these teams trying to be sharp and I am ready to give in and just ride the wave. Let’s win with the squares.
USC (-2.5) @ UCLA o/u 76.5
SQUARE PLAY #1- I have faded USC a lot this year- sometimes with success, sometimes not. But I like them to keep the playoff dream alive for two more weeks before losing in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Due to being on the west coast, Caleb Williams is somehow underrated this year. He has put up similar numbers to Stroud and Hooker while leading his team to the point they are now- still in CFP contention with two weeks left.
Obviously, this game will have a shit load of points and anything can happen… BUT… if there are key drives at the end of the game or even OT, I trust Caleb Williams more than DTR to win the game. UCLA is an amazing running team but if they get down, I don’t think they will be able to catch back up to USC. And even if UCLA goes up early, USC can throw to get back into the game. Fight On.
Pick: 1.5u USC -2
Utah (-2) @ Oregon o/u 60.5
Well, this game has turned into a bit of a disaster. I bet Oregon and the over early in the week but now it looks very likely that Bo Nix will not play. I have decided to… NOT BUY OUT! Ty Thompson is a 5-star stud who will be starting at QB and I think he will seize this opportunity. It’s tough to gameplan against a guy you really haven’t seen play and I think Thompson will be able to put up a ton of points up against this Utah defense.
Utah and Cam Rising should also get theirs against this dismal Oregon defense. I think the over is a play no matter who is at QB for Oregon. But I also think this is a game of destiny for Ty Thompson. I wish I had gotten the new better numbers after the Bo Nix news but I’m backing Ty Thompson to win this game regardless.
Pick: 1u Oregon -3, 1u o61.5 (like Oregon and over at current numbers with QB news)
TCU (-2.5) @ Baylor o/u 57
SQUARE PICK #2- Everyone who is remotely “sharp” likes Baylor this week. Over 75% of the public is on TCU. You must pick a side and I am going with the people. At a certain point in this stupid fucking sport that is college football, you just have to accept the fact that magic is a real thing. This TCU team has some sort of special magic about them and I think they will win this game and keep marching toward the CFP.
Baylor has been a wildly inconsistent team this year. I don’t trust Blake Shapen at all, especially with this TCU defense playing much better as of late. Max Duggan will be able to score against Baylor’s D and they will find a way to win another close game, as they have done all year.
Pick: 1.5u TCU -2.5
1.5u Navy +15.5 @ UCF- Navy has been great as a dog all year. UCF is in a big let-down spot after their huge win over Tulane last week. They are in a great position to make the AAC Championship Game so I think they come out super flat here.
1u Vandy +14.5 vs. Florida- Vandy has been playing really tough. They honestly should have beat Missouri, covered against South Carolina, and then finally got an SEC win against Kentucky last week. Florida became bowl-eligible with a win last week so they really have nothing left to play for. Vandy keeps it close.
1.5u TCU -2.5 @ Baylor- see above
1.5u Illinois/Michigan u44.5– This total has dropped with bad weather on the horizon and a possible Chase Brown injury for Illinois. Both of these teams will run a ton and this game will be a super low-scoring affair. Illinois might not score if Chase Browns doesn’t play.
1.5u Houston +6 @ ECU- I love ECU as a dog and hate them as a favorite. Houston’s offense is awesome. Yes, their defense is maybe the worst I have ever seen, but I don’t see ECU getting many stops. Both teams are bowl-eligible but won’t make the AAC Championship Game (with a miracle Houston could still make it) so neither team should be too motivated. I think that just means both offenses will let it fly and Houston has the better offense.
1u BC +21 @ Notre Dame- Notre Dame is in a tough spot with USC on the schedule next week. They should be looking ahead hard. Meanwhile, BC finally picked up a good win against NC State last week and they should ride that momentum into this game.
1u Miami TT u14.5 @ Clemson- Clemson (shockingly) may still have a chance at the CFP if USC and TCU both lose. I think they will lock in hard over the next two weeks to try to get some style points to make their case convincing to the committee if they beat UNC. I still don’t trust DJU as far as he can throw a football (not far) but I think Clemson will be able to enforce their will on the ground with long drives. That means limited possessions for this already awful Miami offense.
1u Temple +17 vs. Cincy- EJ Warner is electric. Temple has been scoring a lot the last few weeks. Cincy has been scraping by over the last few weeks. They lost to UCF and won four games by an average of 4.5 PPG. I think Temple can hang here.
1u Tennessee -22 @ Cocks- The Vawls proved they want style points last week. Heupel wants to run it up and the Cocks will be unable to stop them. Without Tank Lloyd the Cocks just have no offensive rhythm to try to keep up in a track meet. Vawls big.
1.5u Arkansas +2.5 vs. Ole Miss- I am starting to like this spot more and more. Ole Miss is in a massive let down after losing to Bama last week. With a win they could have still won the SEC West and made the CFP. Now their season is over and they have the Egg Bowl looming next week. That sets them up for a trap against a Hogs team that expects to have KJ Jefferson back next week.
1.5u USC -2 @ UCLA- see above
1u UAB +15 @ LSU- I am happy to report that LSU is still a fraud. UAB can easily hang with them with the offensive weapons they have. LSU could be in trouble against Texas A&M next week and will get rolled by Georgia in two weeks. I think they take this game lightly and allow UAB to hang with them.
1u Oregon -3 vs. Utah, o61.5– see above
That’s it! Let’s get some winners, lads and lasses. And as always…