December 26-28 Slate
We are on to preview number three! Preview part one was a dominant success. We got a huge head start on Bowl SZN. Bowl Preview Part two was less eventful. A Christmas Eve winner on the under brought us to 4-4-1 to mostly just push money around for the past week (luckily I destroyed NFL over Christmas weekend to more than make up for it). Here is an update on all of the significant numbers:
Bowl SZN: 11-6-1 +6.82u
CFB YTD: 171-134-3 +28.58u
Let’s get back over the 30u mark over the next couple of days. Bowls are coming hot and fast so I will only be covering a couple of days at a time to make these digestible. This will be covering the nine games from today through Wednesday. Then the next preview will be covering the seven games before NYE. The final preview will be covering the NYE, NYD, and Jan 2nd games including the CFP. Then that will be it until the Natty. Let’s do it.
Quick Lane Bowl- NMSU (+3.5) vs. Bowling Green o/u 48.5
This is an awesome game. These are two teams that have been in the dregs of college football over the past couple of seasons and both made it to bowl eligibility. NMSU outscored their final two opponents 114-17 to come into this bowl game on absolute fire. That includes a blowout shocking upset over Liberty. I tend to lean towards NMSU for this reason. NMSU played a pretty tough schedule and got blown out by the P5 teams they played but other than that, played really competitively all season. For BGSU, they beat some really bad teams, played close games against bad teams, and got blown out by some mediocre MAC teams. I think NMSU is the more legit team here and catching 3.5 I’ll take the points.
Pick: 1u NMSU +3.5
Camellia Bowl- GA Southern (-4) vs. Buffalo o/u 66.5
This Southern team is so awesome to watch. I am ready to fade the MAC here. Kyle Vantrease is one of the most electric players in college football and I expect him to put on a show on the national stage here. I don’t think Buffalo will score enough to keep up.
Pick: 1u GaSo -3.5
First Responder Bowl- Memphis (-7.5) vs. Utah State o/u 60.5
I normally don’t like going with MLPs in bowl games because of the variance you can find on a game-to-game basis but I think that is the best path here. I think Memphis will win this game but I struggle to trust this team to win with margin. Memphis’ losses have almost all been very close. They lost to Houston by 1, ECU by 2 in OT on the road, UCF by 7, Tulane by 10 on the road, and SMU by 3 on the road.
This Memphis team including QB Seth Henigan had their bowl game canceled last year. They were on a plane to Hawaii when their game was canceled due to COVID so I think they will be determined to show out in this one. I am pairing them with Minnesota in a couple of days against a Syracuse team I want to fade. Then adding LSU on as well to push it to + money.
Birmingham Bowl- Coastal Carolina (+7.5) vs. ECU o/u 65
This has been one of the weirdest games from a betting perspective. There were reports that Grayson McCall would transfer, people (including me) bet this line up to -13.5, then McCall released his statement and said he would play in the bowl before transferring. That had the line bet back to where it is now. I made a nice little window for myself where if this game lands between ECU by 10-13 I will have a double winner.
Otherwise, I think the line is about right with McCall playing. That is why I pivoted to the over. ECU plays like madmen and will go for it on 4th downs, throw the ball deep, and they will score effortlessly against this awful Coastal defense. However, as he has done all year, Grayson McCall will force this team to score and compete.
Pick: 1.5u o59.5 (would still play at current #)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl- Wisconsin (-3.5) vs. OK State o/u 44.5
This game is an ugly one. Wisconsin has their new head coach Luke Fickell who will be on the staff in some capacity for this game and both teams will be without their starting QBs. Graham Mertz is awful so the drop-off shouldn’t be as bad for Wisco as it will be for OK State without Spencer Sanders. OK State lost 4 of their last 5 games with Spencer Sanders missing a lot of time during that stretch. I just think this team is ready to wrap it up and move on to next season.
However, for Wisconsin, I think with Luke Fickell on the sideline the players that are there will want to compete hard to prove themselves to their new coach. I am rolling with Wisco to win small.
Pick: 1u Wisco -3 (would buy a 3 to -120)
Military Bowl- UCF (+3.5) vs. Duke o/u 62.5
Duke was one of the surprise teams of the season this year. Mike Elko did an incredible job in his first year and this is exactly the type of team you want to back in a bowl game. They have a lot of positive momentum going into next season whereas UCF is pretty disappointed coming off a loss in the AAC Championship Game. Mikey Keane is out for this game for UCF and JRP has been hurt the last few weeks. I think a banged-up UFC team will just kind of skate by in this game while Duke will be way up for it.
Pick: 1u Duke -2 (would play current #)
Liberty Bowl- Kansas (+3) vs. Arkansas o/u 69
I love Kansas here. They are in the same boat as Duke as a team with all the momentum in the world. Jalon Daniels is healthy and Jason Bean is healthy so Kansas has a lot of flexibility at the QB position. They should be all in to win this game in their first bowl game since 2008. Meanwhile, Arkansas fizzled out hard to end their season and have a ton of opt-outs for this game, especially on the defensive end. Kansas should win this game barring some really dumb mistakes.
Pick: 1.5u Kansas +5, 1u Kansas ML +135 (would play the 3 at current #s)
Holiday Bowl- Oregon (-14) vs. UNC o/u 75
This is a weird one. We thought it could be a game without Bo Nix and Drake Maye and instead, we get them both. This should be a really fun game with a ton of points. I took Oregon when it was at -13.5 and would still play at -14. Otherwise, this should be a great game to live bet with the number of points scored. You should be able to catch good numbers on both teams or even the over if there is a slow start.
Pick: 1u Oregon -13.5
Texas Bowl- Texas Tech (+3.5) vs. Ole Miss o/u 71.5
This should be another fun one. Three straight games with a total of 69 or higher. Both of these teams run with an incredibly high pace and will go for a lot of 4th downs. These teams should be able to move the ball quickly up and down the field. At the end of the day, I think Texas Tech will come out on top or this game could end on a weird play like a 2-point conversion or OT. For that reason, I am taking the points with TTU and the over.
Picks: 1u TTU +3.5, 1u o71
That’s it for the next couple of days! Be back soon!