December 19-24 Slate
We are on to preview number two! Preview one was a smashing success and we are off to a great start in Bowl SZN. Here is an updated on all of the important numbers:
Bowl SZN: 7-2 +8.32u
CFB YTD: 167-130-2 +30.08u
Eclipsing the 30u mark is a huge accomplishment that I am very proud of. It wasn’t the perfect season and we really had to come on strong at the end, but that is when it matters most. Let’s build on that number over the final two weeks of the season.
Myrtle Beach Bowl- Marshall (-10.5) vs. UConn o/u 40.5
The Huskies haven’t been to a bowl game since 2015 and haven’t won a bowl game since 2009. Strangely, UConn actually played Marshall in their last bowl game in 2015 where they lost 16-10. Jim Mora has done an unbelievable job at UConn. They were the laughingstock of the FBS over the last several seasons and now in year one Mora has them in a bowl. I think this game means way more to this program than Marshall who has been bowling in 9 of the last 10 seasons.
This should also be a super defensive game, hence the low total. That makes the margin of error very small for Marshall to cover 10.5. It will just take a couple of scores for UConn to comfortably get in this number. Go Huskies.
Pick: 1.5u UConn +10.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl- Eastern Michigan (+4) vs. San Jose State o/u 53.5
The MAC is actually 1-0 ATS this Bowl SZN! Maybe this is their year. I put this game in last place in my bowl confidence pool so do with that info what you will… but you can’t bet every bowl game if you don’t bet this one. San Jose State had higher hopes and was hoping to maybe make their conference championship game. However, the lost two of their last games to kill that chance. I think they come into this game a bit defeated while EMU should be up for it.
Pick: 1u EMU +4
Boca Raton Bowl- Liberty (+4.5) vs. Toledo o/u 54
I like the spot for Liberty here. Toledo just won the MAC Championship Game and that was their big win of the season. This game shouldn’t mean as much to them as winning the conference did. Meanwhile, I think you are getting a bargain on this Liberty line because of what happened in their last game of the season. After beating Arkansas, this team took a nose dive. They lost to UConn in the most obvious let down of the season, they lost a 1-point game to VA Tech, and then the real embarrassing loss was getting blown out by NMSU in the last game of the season.
Hugh Freeze had clearly already quit on this program and his players knew it. They now made a splash hire in Jamey Chadwell and these players will want to impress their new head coach. I think Liberty gets up big for this game and overall they have a better roster than Toledo.
Picks: 1.5u Liberty +5, 1u Liberty ML (+175)
New Orleans Bowl- Western Kentucky (+4.5) vs. South Alabama o/u 56
I liked this a lot when WKU QB Austin Reed said he was entering the portal. However, Reed has since withdrawn from the portal and will play in this game. After all of that, I am sticking with my bet. I think South Alabama can still roll in this spot. The only games that they lost ALL YEAR were by 4 against Troy who won the conference and by 1 to UCLA on the road. This South Alabama team is really good.
WKU’s offense is high-powered but their defense is tragic. I think the WKU offense could also be a bit disjointed with Reed being away from the team for a while when he was in the portal.
Pick: 2u South Alabama -4.5
Armed Forces Bowl- Baylor (-5.5) vs. Air Force o/u 48
Always bet service academies in bowl games. Their motivation never drops for a second. Baylor had a pretty disappointing season after losing their final three games of the regular season and they shouldn’t be too amped to be in this bowl game. I think Air Force’s defense will really step up here and they will run the ball effectively to take control of this game.
Pick: 1.5u Air Force +5.5
Independence Bowl- ULL (+7) vs. Houston o/u 58.5
Houston had an awful year. Their defense is one of the worst in history. This cap basically comes down to me not thinking they could ever get a stop against anybody. Give me the points.
Pick: 1.5u ULL +7
Gasparilla Bowl- Wake Forest (-1) vs. Missouri o/u 60
I love Mizzou in this spot. Wake has really struggled in close games and I don’t trust their defense at all. This Mizzou defense is extremely tough and I think they will make a statement here. Always back the SEC.
Pick: 1.5u Mizzou +3
Hawai’i Bowl- MTSU (+7) vs. SDSU o/u 49.5
I hate this game but it’s Christmas Eve for God’s sake, we’re not gonna NOT bet on this game. I am backing these teams to be unmotivated to be playing this game on Christmas Eve. They should have a blast partying in Hawai’i for the holidays and forget the football game is even happening. Let’s take the under.
Pick: 1u u49.5
That’s it folks! Merry Christmas to all of you and hopefully this will buy you some presents! As always…