CFB YTD: 197-152-3 (56.4%) +37.84u

We have reached the pinnacle of the college football season. It all started with the preseason previews, then it evolved into the weekly betting previews, now 352 bets later, the final game of the season is here. The defending national champions are back again but this time instead of taking on Alabama, they are taking on the Cinderella story that is the TCU Horned Frogs.

This has been an exceptional season of college football and no matter the result on Monday night, it will be topped off beautifully. We will either get the biggest longshot to win the National Championship (maybe ever?) in college football or Georgia will officially cement itself as the new gold standard in college football.

This will obviously impact how I’m betting on the National Championship, but before getting into that game preview, I want to talk about the semifinal games, starting with Georgia. The Dawgs were outplayed. Ohio State should have won that game and they did the right thing every step, until the very final seconds of the game. I said they would win the game by being the aggressors on offense and by making Stetson Bennett play outside of his game. They did both successfully until the final set of downs where they refused to take a shot to improve their FG distance.

For TCU/Michigan, I do think TCU deserved to win the game but let’s not pretend that they played brilliantly. Their defense got stomped by Michigan and they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They won the game because they had two pick-sixes and stuffed Michigan inside the 5 three times. One resulted in a turnover on downs on the first drive of the game, another in Michigan settling for a short field goal, and then the fumble after the controversial short of the endzone call. However, this is what TCU has done all year. They have not always been the better team but they have always found a way to win games. But, this next one will be by far their toughest challenge yet.

Georgia (-12.5) vs. TCU o/u 63

The consensus wire-to-wire #1 team in the nation all year (that also happens to be the defending champs) vs. little ole TCU. Do you believe in miracles?? Do you think college football is a sport that has fairytale endings??? Do you believe that David really can slay Goliath???? Because I don’t believe in any of that shit. Michigan was always a paper tiger fraud and still easily should have won that game if JJ McCarthy didn’t throw two pick-sixes.

TCU was bailed out by stupid QB mistakes, bad playcalling, and getting the goal line stands. If Michigan just pounds that rock in and scores a TD on that opening drive, this entire game could have been different. Michigan would have had all of the early momentum and could have just rolled. Then you have the play where Michigan had the controversial TD overturned where they were ruled down at the 1/2-yard line before fumbling into the end zone. That would have put them down 14-10 with a few minutes to go in the half instead of going into the half down 21-6.

If you throw out the pick-sixes, Michigan wins this game by 7+. If they turn their three trips inside the 5 into touchdowns each time instead of 3 total points, they win this game by 14+. If you get rid of all of those somewhat fluky plays, this could have been a serious Michigan blowout.

Now TCU has to face a Georgia team that is much better than Michigan. Say what you want about Stetson Bennett (and I have said plenty) but he will not make those idiotic mistakes that JJ McCarthy made. Stetson is better than JJ, is a smarter decision-maker, has a better system/play-caller, and he has been on this stage before.

When it comes to the red zone, Georgia is the best in the business. They have scored points on an unprecedented 98.55% of red zone drives this year, the best number in college football. For reference, last year’s National Championship Georgia team only scored on 88% of red zone drives.

I said that TCU DC Joe Gillespie would be able to game plan well to stop Michigan’s offense with a month of prep time. He did a decent job, despite Michigan putting up 500 yards… but now he only has 9 days to prep for a brand-new team. I think it will be a lot harder for TCU to come up with the perfect scheme on both sides of the ball. Georgia should just be able to use their superior size, speed, and talent to win this game.

I think Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia were the three best teams in the country this year. Georgia got Ohio State’s best shot and still survived it. I think that was a major wake-up call for them and they will feel like they are ready to seize history by winning another National Championship here against TCU. Brock Bowers will be too much for TCU and the run game will set up Stetson Bennett’s ability to hit big plays. TCU’s secondary got exposed by deep balls over the top against Michigan and it will happen again here against the Dawgs.

The public has fallen in love with this TCU team after so many doubted them last week. So we do what we have done all year, we zig when they zag. Georgia almost lost to Ohio State so people want to sell them and buy TCU. We will do the opposite. We were blessed with two amazing semifinal games but we will be given a route in the Natty in exchange. Georgia is better in every facet of this game and they will control this thing from the jump. We are rolling with the Dawgs for the second year in a row.

Picks: 1u Georgia 1H -7, 2u Georgia -12.5


We crushed our props in the semis. We went perfect in the Michigan/TCU game and only lost on Bowers anytime TD in the Georgia game. Let’s close it out strong with these:

0.5u Max Duggan o29.5 rushing yards- We bet this number around 24 in the semifinal and it cruised over with 57. We are hitting it again. Especially if Kendre Miller is out or even banged up, the designed runs for Duggan will be at an even higher clip. We also saw CJ Stroud pick up huge chunks on the ground in the semi.

0.83u (to win 1u) Max Duggan anytime TD (+120)- Duggan ran for 2 TDs in the semi. Just like I said above, Duggan should get a lot of designed runs, and when in doubt in the red zone, Duggan will take off and try to scramble for the end zone.

0.5u Brock Bowers o62.5 receiving yards- I am sticking with Bowers. He went over this number in the semi and I think TCU is an even better matchup for him. I really think Bowers will ball in this game and they will get him the ball as often as possible.

0.87u (to win 1u) Brock Bowers receiving TD (+115)- The juice on a Bowers anytime TD is getting absurd. I know he has run for 3 TDs this year but they were all in September and he has only had 7 rush attempts all season. The price difference between the anytime TD and the receiving TD is insane. We did this in the semis with Quentin Johnston and it paid off so let’s do it again with Bowers here.

0.5u Stetson Bennett o272.5 passing yards- Stetson threw for nearly 400 against OSU and JJ McCarthy threw for 343 against TCU in the semis. Stetson threw for well over this number in most games this year. TCU’s 91st-ranked pass defense should struggle here.

THAT’S IT FOR THE SEASON! Let’s close it out strong. Go Dawgs. One last time…