The 2022-23 season is officially in the books and it was an amazing one. I had my preseason previews in August that cashed futures like Toledo to win the MAC, Utah to win the Pac-12, Fresno State to win the MW, and a bunch of win totals. Then I released my weekly previews and after a slow start, we really started to pile up units late in the season. That turned into another dominant bowl season and an even better College Football Playoff. I mean… this is pretty awesome…
Overall, our final CFB record was 203-153-3 (57%) +43.26u. A really incredible season. It wouldn’t be the same if I was just betting on my own. Knowing that you guys are out there tailing and supporting is really the most fun part. I love creating sports betting content and next season I plan on taking it to the next level… but more on that over the summer.
For now, we can get into my favorite CFB tradition, betting a National Championship future for next year the day after the Natty. In 2021, I bet Georgia to win it all at 10/1 and their odds dropped heavily and of course, they ended up winning. In 2022, I bet Ohio State +850, and their odds also dropped significantly. They were a missed field goal away from winning it all this year.
For next year, I am going to be betting on TWO teams for the first time ever. I will give a quick thought into my thought process here. This year was considered one of the more open and competitive CFB seasons in recent memory despite Georgia ending up with the title and Michigan and Ohio State being in the playoff. However, I think next year could be even more wide open.
Bryce Young is leaving Alabama, Stetson Bennett is leaving Georgia, CJ Stroud is leaving Ohio State, Max Duggan is leaving TCU, and Hendon Hooker is leaving Tennessee. Jim Harbaugh is taking NFL interviews (again)?? All of that leaves a lot of room for uncertainty around this year’s best teams. That makes it an ideal year to bet an outsider for the National Championship. TCU has proved that a Cinderella team can make a run all the way to the Natty and maybe next year, one could actually seal the deal.
Now I am not going to go with a 300/1 shot like TCU this year… but with two teams I think can win their conference or be a 1-loss team that sneaks in like Ohio State this year. Let’s start with the longer shot…
Is anyone surprised?? Michael Penix Jr. is returning after leading the FBS in passing yards and this team has a ton of momentum heading into next year. Washington won their final seven games of the season including beating Oregon, Oregon State, and Texas in their bowl game. This was just Kalen DeBoer’s first season at Washington and I think he will really be able to start building up the program this summer.
With Penix returning, a lot of other Washington players have also announced their desire to return. That will also make them a very popular destination when it comes to the portal. I expect this offense to be a top-5 offense in football next year and if the defense can make some strides, they could be a real National Title threat.
They have a favorable OOC schedule with Boise State, Michigan State, and Tulsa. The teams are just good enough that they couldn’t get accused of having a cupcake schedule but I expect them to have no trouble beating those teams. In conference, they get Oregon, Utah, and Washington State all at home. Their only real road test all season is going to USC.
If they can take care of business at home, even if they lose to USC, they would make the Pac-12 Championship with a chance for revenge against USC in that game which would almost certainly put them in the CFP as 1-loss Pac-12 Champs that avenged their only loss.
Other Pac-12 teams have tougher OOC schedules that could trip them up and stop their CFP chances. Utah has to play Florida and Baylor. USC has to go to Notre Dame. I will be backing the Huskies to win the conference and have already bet them to win the Natty.
I got some money down on them at 66/1 at PointsBet last night but unfortunately, that plummeted the line down to 50/1 where I bet some more. That line is also available at Caesars. You should be able to comfortably get a 40/1 at DK or FD which I still like a lot. Go Huskies. Go Penix.
Here we go… Brian Kelly time. In year one, Brian Kelly beat Alabama and made the SEC Championship Game. Then they put up 500 passing yards on the National Champions in that game. If this team wouldn’t have lost to FSU on a last-second missed XP in the first game of the season, they would have had a much different narrative around them all season.
I expect Jayden Daniels to ball next season. He was hit-or-miss in year one at LSU but I think with another full offseason, he will be ready to put on a show next year. LSU will be loaded on both sides of the line and should dominate the trenches against any opponent in the country. Brian Kelly should continue to hit the portal hard and he has already snagged a 4-star receiver from Bama and a 4-star CB from Texas A&M, among other talented hopefuls.
LSU starts next season off against FSU in a major revenge spot. I expect Brian Kelly to have his team wildly motivated to avenge last year’s loss and that should start the LSU hype train. For the SEC, their schedule isn’t too bad. They get a rebuilding Florida team at home and Missouri out of the East. They do have to go to Alabama, but who knows who Alabama will be next year without Bryce Young.
I think LSU can win the SEC next year, or could even make the playoff as a 1-loss SEC team that only loses in the SEC Championship or their only loss is to Alabama on the road.
I got some 28/1 last night but this line has plummeted. You can still find 20/1 at PointsBet and some other shops so that’s what I’ll grade it at. However, make sure to shop around because some books have already dropped this as low as 14/1. Geaux Tigers.
Going forward, I will be writing previews for each weekend of the NFL playoffs with no college football. After that, I will be doing March Madness previews as I spend the next couple of months catching up on college basketball. Then before you know it, it will be back into the offseason CFB previews. Thanks again to all who supported all season. Let’s close out the NFL season as strongly as we did the CFB.