The Big Game is here.
Here are the updated YTD numbers with a +50u season in sight if we can have a profitable Super Bowl.
NFL YTD: 142-94-3 +49.06u
NFL Playoffs: 8-9-1 -2.35u
I am taking a very strange approach to this year’s Super Bowl. I don’t love either side and don’t want to make a huge investment into either team pregame at the current numbers. So I am taking a different approach. My main pregame bet is going to be a 4-leg SGP (very +EV I know) with odds around even. Then I plan on getting in live on the other side. I will be following this whole script with all of my bets. Let’s do it.
SGP: 3u Chiefs +8.5, o39.5, Mahomes 225+ pass yards, Kelce 50+ receiving yards (+102)– The Chiefs have not lost by double digits since Week 5 of the 2021 season. I am comfortable with both teams hitting 20 points to get over this total. Mahomes and Kelce will hit these numbers barring injuries. I really love this bet and I know it’s non-conventional but I am comfortable with this being my main pregame bet.
Coin flip: Heads +100 (DK)– Anyone that says “tails never fails” is as fake +EV as it gets. Fade them. Heads for life. (kidding, don’t bet more than $5 on this but DO bet it)
National Anthem: Under (2:09)– Country singers keep it moving.
First timeout: Chiefs (-120)– Andy Reid loves early TOs and Sirriani holds on to those things.
First TD: Kelce 7/1, Gray 38/1, Fortson 70/1, Goedert 12/1– I love the Chiefs TEs. I am betting a bit more on Kelce and Goedert and then sprinkling the others.
Jersey number of the player to score the 1st touchdown o11.5 +105 (DK)- I like this a lot. Obviously, all of my TEs fall under this category. Mahomes would count for this. Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell and Skyy Moore would all fit here. Isaiah Pacheco, Jalen Hurts, and the WRs are the other side here but Pacheco is the only one of those that really worries me.
First Quarter: Chiefs +0.5 (-155) 0.65u– I am betting Chiefs +0.5 1Q. Super Bowl first quarters are usually low-scoring and the Chiefs have started stronger. You can bet Chiefs 1Q ML if you want to remove the juice but I am playing to a potential 0-0 or 3-3 here.
Second Quarter: o14 (-120)– I am taking the 2Q over. These teams are 1st and 3rd in the NFL in second-quarter scoring. I think push is the worst case here.
SOMEWHERE IN HERE EAGLES AND OVER LIVE- Either late first quarter or early second quarter I plan on betting the Eagles and the over live. I want the Eagles at +7 or better but would even take +4.5 or better depending on how the game is going. I want a live over at 46.5 or better. This will obviously depend on the score but I think we have a low-scoring Chiefs lead after the first 20 minutes. Twitter and Action will let you know when I do hit this.
Exact score: 28-24 Eagles, 31-28 Eagles, 31-27 Eagles– Sprinkles.
Gatorade: Red 15/1, Purple 14/1– Just take the longest odds you can find.
MVP: Sanders 25/1, Reddick 35/1, Gainwell 100/1– Mahomes will win if the Chiefs win. Hurts will still probably win but these are three shots I would take if the Eagles win.
Anytime TD: Kelce -115, Gray +850, Fortson 11/1, Goedert +175 (FD)– Same as my first TDs. Love the TEs.
Mahomes INT (-105) DK– Mahomes has thrown 4 INTs in two career Super Bowls. The guy is amazing but takes big chances. He throws a pick against this elite Philly secondary.
Miles Sanders o60.5 rush yards (-110) PB– Sanders is getting fed here.
Kenneth Gainwell o10.5 receiving yards (-125) PB– Sanders gets the ground. Gainwell gets the air.
Devonta Smith u65.5 receiving yards (-120) PB– I like AJ Brown more at WR and like the TE and RBs even better.
Non-QB TD Pass 20/1 FD– We had one last year with Joe Mixon throwing one. Obviously, we had the Philly Special last time the Eagles were in the Super Bowl. The Eagles like to get wild and nobody has more creative plays than Andy Reid. I think this is worth a shot.
Butker more kicking points than Elliott (-124) FD– This one is easy for me. Nobody in the NFL is more aggressive than Sirianni and he has already proved it in the postseason. Reid is shockingly conservative for how good of a coach he is. He will settle for more FGs.
Anytime 2-point conversion ATTEMPT (+105) PB– Sirianni bet, again. If he never goes for 2 I would be shocked. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it on their first TD. This also comes into play with an obvious scoring situation like getting within 3/7/8 late in the game.
Player to have longest reception- MVS 10/1, Quez 28/1 DK– These are two shots on the best two deep-shot guys.
Both teams to complete their first pass (-115) DK– This is a fun early sweat. Play callers love to get their QB comfortable in the Super Bowl. A couple of check-downs should get this home.
That’s it for my pregame bets! Hopefully, that’s enough action for you maniacs. This has been an unbelievably fun season and I hope we close it out strong here.
Here are some final Super Bowl degen tips to take you out:
- Bet some college basketball and NBA during the day to wet your beak early and stretch out your gambling muscles.
- Give out one or two longshot prop tips to your friends you’re watching the game with, even if they aren’t really gamblers. Tell them to just throw a few bucks on a longshot first TD prop or something. Then you will all have something to cheer for together to start the night. If it hits you are a hero and if it doesn’t… well, it was fun while it lasted.
- If you’re at a Super Bowl party, scout out the other guys at the party that gamble. You don’t want to be around dweebs who don’t understand why you’re America’s preeminent Jody Fortson fan.
One last time…