NFL YTD: 41-28-3 (59.4%) +13.55u
The Titans cashed on MNF to close out Week 6 with a winner to get some momentum heading into this week. It is a pretty ugly NFL slate with three double digit favorites on the board but there are still a few solid angles available to hit on. I wrote in my early week preview about how much I like the Broncos on TNF and released a play on them at +4.5 and that line has since moved to +1/1.5. So hopefully people jumped on that line when I released it on Action and in the early week blog because my prediction that Chubb would sit again was correct and Baker is sitting on top of that along with several players on the OL. Teddy underdog should take care of business and get a win in Cleveland. I also threw the Broncos into a teaser piece to get them over a TD. I’m going to write up each of the sides I’m betting and then give a brief thought on the best potential angle for every other game this week.
Broncos @ Browns- I already wrote up my thoughts on this game but to reiterate, Teddy is a road dog against this super banged up Browns team and I think the Broncos get the outright W. I played them +4.5 and in a teaser over 7.
1.5u Bengals (+6.5) @ Ravens
Joe Burrow is 10-5-1 ATS in his NFL career and as a divisional road dog I like him even more. The Ravens are 1-3 ATS as favorites this year including an outright loss. This Ravens secondary has some issues that have been exposed and I think Burrow will be able to throw to his receivers deep and often. This is an underrated Bengals defense that is currently 5th in defensive DVOA and 2nd in Y/P allowed. I think they will give Lamar some issues and the Ravens could slip up here against their division rival. The Bengals two losses this year have both come by just 3 points (one of those in OT) so they strike me as a 2020 Chargers team that is going to compete wire-to-wire every week no matter what their SU record is at the end of the year.
1.5u WFT (+9.5) @ Packers
I bet this over 9 earlier in the week and the line has continued to fall. At +8 or better I still like it for 1.5u and at +7.5 or +7 I like it for 1u. The WFT was overvalued coming into the season and a lot of people, myself included, predicted a step back for this defense. I faded them multiple times early in the season but also hit on them in their only win this season against the Falcons so I have a good feel for this team. The Packers have looked strong so far this season but despite their 5-game SU and ATS win streak, I haven’t been overly impressed with them. They had that insane last second drive to beat SF on a GW FG, had the game against the Bengals where both teams missed multiple GW FG attempts, then against the Bears and Steelers they had unimpressive offensive performances where they just kind of fell into their covers. I think this is just a classic NFL buy-low, sell-high spot and the WFT will surprise the public here.
1.5u Eagles (+3.5) (-120) @ Raiders
The Raiders are becoming the new Steelers. As underdogs, they are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU with upsets over the Ravens, Steelers, and Broncos as dogs of 5 or more. However, they are 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU as favorites with a near-loss to the dreadful Brissett-led Dolphins and an 11-point loss as 5.5-point favorites against the Bears. They continue to play down to their competition and up to big competition and I expect more of the same here. The Eagles are on 10 days of rest after playing TNF which should help their offense that still has some issues to iron out and it also allowed them to get Lane Johnson back which should make a huge difference against these dangerous Raiders edge rushers. The Eagles defensive numbers are a little inflated (negatively) because of their tough schedule but I think this is a solid defense that will take away the deep ball Derek Carr loves so much. The Birds have faced three of the top-4 and four of the top-10 DVOA offenses (Bucs, Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers). Their two SU wins came against Carolina and Atlanta who are 25th and 29th in offensive DVOA. The Raiders fall in at 22nd so the Eagles should look much more like they did in those two wins than they did in the rest of their brutal schedule. Birds outright.
That’s it for the sides I’m betting as of now but I could add more so keep an eye out on Twitter and Action for those. Now I’ll run through my thoughts on the rest of the games.
Jets (+7) @ Patriots- The Jets are off a bye and the Pats are off an emotional OT game against the Cowboys so I’m laying off the number but Belichick against a rookie QB is as good of a trend as there is in the NFL. I think the Pats are one of the top teaser/MLP spots this weekend and you will see them in my card.
Chiefs (-5) @ Titans o/u 57.5- I’ve used the Chiefs in a MLP two weeks in a row now and I’m going for it again. I still think they’re untrustworthy ATS but gun-to-head they cover this number. However, I’m more confident in them winning and I’m also playing the over here. The Titans won’t be able to get stops and Henry should break a few big runs against the Chiefs run D.
Panthers (-3) @ Giants- This game is gross. The Giants have been awful at home but been good as dogs (mostly on the road) under Dan Jones. Sam Darnold is looking like old Darnold again and this Panthers defense isn’t looking as good against better competition. This is a true coinflip game so I’m rolling with the Giants in a teaser in this spot.
Falcons (-2.5) @ Dolphins- Read above. Disgusting game. Coinflip game. Give me the Dolphins through all the key numbers in a teaser.
Lions (+15.5) @ Rams- I think this Lions team is playing hard but they’re just not very good… the Rams have blown out their bad opponents (Giants by 27, Bears by 20) and I don’t trust the Lions to cover here. I’m not betting the Rams either because these giant NFL spreads gross me out. Safe MLP piece.
Bears (+12.5) @ Bucs- I honestly think any value here is in the Bears ML. If the Bucs show up and do their thing they could easily win by 2+ TDs but I have a strange feeling that the Bears could pull off the huge upset here. Their defense is playing really well and could make this game ugly and find a way to win. I’m not betting it but I’d avoid the Bucs in a MLP piece or survivor pool.
Texans (+17.5) @ Cardinals- Texans or nothing here. Cardinals are overvalued but the Texans are gross so I’m staying away.
I’ll have separate write-ups with my thoughts on SNF and MNF so that’s all for now! Here’s the full card:
1.5u Broncos +4.5
1.5u Broncos +7.5/Giants +9 teaser
1u Chiefs/Titans o56.5
1.5u Bengals +6.5
1.5u WFT +9.5
1.5u Dolphins +8.5/Eagles +9 teaser
1.5u Chiefs/Patriots MLP (-109)
1.5u Eagles +3.5 (-120)
Let’s have a great weekend! Full CFB card and write-ups coming tomorrow.