CFB YTD: 61-52-2 (53.9%) +1.56u
The weekday CFB went 2-1 to bump up our season total a little bit entering the weekend. It’s a little frustrating because at a 53.9% clip if every bet was for the same amount, we’d be at a really solid number but the multi-unit plays have just missed so far. This weekend I have four games with 2+ units on them in different ways so if this Saturday is a big one then we will be looking great to start off the second half of the season. Overall, this Saturday’s slate is pretty gross but it’s setting up for an incredible slate next Saturday. A lot of teams take their bye week 8 or have a weak opponent scheduled before some monster matchups in Week 9. So let’s boost that season unit total even more so we have a comfortable bankroll heading into an incredible Week 9 slate.
Friday Night Lights- 1u Memphis ML (-115): UCF has really struggled since Dillon Gabriel went down at QB. Since they lost him to injury they have lost to Navy, barely survived against ECU, and got demolished by Cincy (0-3 ATS overall). Memphis has a really dangerous passing attack which we have seen UCF get killed by all year and I think Memphis will just be too much firepower for UCF to keep up with.
2u UCLA ML (-115)
This is my biggest single bet of the slate. Oregon’s power ratings are still riding on the coattails of that win over Ohio State. Since that game, Oregon is 0-4 ATS including an outright loss to Stanford and a scare against Cal, two teams they should have beaten comfortably. UCLA has been great ATS this season at 5-2 and I expect them to be fully prepared for this game. Anthony Brown is not the guy at QB for Oregon and they now rank 94th in Y/P. This UCLA defense is elite against the rush and should force Brown to throw downfield which he struggles at doing. Oregon also really struggles to score TDs when they get into the red zone (96th in red zone efficiency) and UCLA does a great job of getting stops down there (24th in opp. red zone efficiency). On the other side, UCLA’s offense is elite at converting long drives into TDs (6th in red zone efficiency) while Oregon can’t stop anyone from getting into the end zone (92nd in opp. red zone efficiency). DTR and this elite UCLA rushing attack should be able to control the game and put touchdowns on the board while UCLA will struggle to throw and settle for field goals when they can get some offense going. Let’s go Bruins
1.5u Iowa State -7, 1.5u Iowa State/FAU MLP
These are two elite defenses but Iowa State is the only offense I trust here. The OK State defense deservedly has a lot of hype but in a lot of categories this Cyclones defense is actually better than the Pokes. Offensively, I trust Iowa State way more. They had a slow start to the season but they still have one of the best backs in the nation in Breece Hall (he ran for 197 yards last week) and Brock Purdy is an experienced, efficient QB who dominates in October (Brocktober is 2-0 ATS). Because they’re undefeated and have that little number next to their name people will be confused on this line and want to bet the Pokes but the ‘Clones are a really good football team that are starting to hit their stride and are still very much in contention to win the Big 12 so don’t expect anything less than a max effort here. Brocktober, baby. *Note: if you missed the Iowa State/FAU MLP given out Thursday, I think the Pats in the NFL are the best substitute in that MLP spot.*
1.5u Alabama 1H -14.5, 1.5u Alabama -27.5
Since the news that Hendon Hooker might be available at QB this line has dropped so if you haven’t bet it yet there are much better lines available for the full game but this is what I released it at so this is what it’ll be graded at. Even if Hendon Hooker does go, that hamstring injury could cause major issues for a QB that uses his legs a lot against a physical Bama defense. If he does start, I would be surprised if he plays the entire game without having to sit out any drives. I am also still not sold on this Vawls offense. Hooker took over early in the Florida game where the Vawls scored 14 points, they blew out Missouri and South Carolina (two awful teams), and then only scored 26 points against Ole Miss’ awful defense (and their offensive pace gives opponents a lot of possessions). Most of Tennessee’s success against Ole Miss actually game on the ground, and largely from Hendon Hooker. With his bad hamstring I doubt he’ll be able to run like that and the Alabama rush defense wouldn’t allow it anyways. What Alabama’s defense did to the high paced Ole Miss offense and Matt Corral was wildly impressive and what Tennessee does is just a less good version of that. If Joe Milton plays for Tennessee they won’t be able to move the ball at all. Tennessee’s defense has some good metrics but when they played dangerous QBs (Matt Corral and Kenny Pickett) they had a lot of issues and even Emory Jones (who is now benched) had a near perfect game against them. Bryce Young and co. should light it up and a hobbled Hendon Hooker won’t be able to keep up.
1.5u Oregon State +1.5 1H, 1.5u Oregon State +3
The Beavs are one of the surprise teams of this season and if UCLA beats Oregon at 3:30 (like I think they will) than Oregon State will be in first place in the PAC-12 North with a win over Utah in the late slate. The Beavs are 4-2 ATS and 3-0 ATS at home this year while Utah is 2-4 ATS, 1-4 ATS as a favorite, and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this season. Utah has gotten off to really slow starts this season (7-6 lead over Wazzou at half, trailed ASU 21-7 at half, trailed SDSU 21-3 at half, trailed BYU 16-7 at half) which is why I like the 1H line here. However, I also think the Beavs end up winning this game so I’m going with the double dip. Oregon State leads the conference in time of possession and they are incredibly efficient on 3rd downs. I think the Beavs run game will allow them to control this game and pull off the huge win at home.
Friday Night: 1u Memphis ML (-115)
1.5u FAU/Iowa State MLP (-111)
2u UCLA ML (-115)
1.5u Iowa State -7
1.5u UAB -23- Rice has gotten blown out badly by superior opponents and UAB loves beating up on bad teams.
1u Akron +12.5- Buffalo fade as big favs and Akron isn’t as bad as they’ve been in the past.
1.5u Pitt/Ohio State/Miss State MLP (-117)– Want to take Pitt over Clemson but even at 3 don’t trust the spread.
1.5u SDSU/Air Force u41.5– SDSU unders ’til I die.
1.5u Bama -27.5, 1.5u Bama 1H -14.5
1.5u LA Tech +7– Skip Holtz is the underdog GOAT and UTSA is overvalued now that they get that little number next to them.
1.5u Oregon State 1H +1.5, 1.5u Oregon State +3
Very possible that there will be more to add later so stay tuned in on Twitter and Action but that’s all for now! Let’s build on a good Saturday last week and good start to the weekday action!