NFL Week 7: 4-6 -3.09u; NFL YTD: 45-34-3 +10.46u
CFB Week 8: 9-10 -3.49u; CFB YTD: 68-61-2 -2.82u
Football YTD: 113-95-5 (54.33%) +7.64u
Well, it was another relatively disappointing weekend for us. Both the NFL and CFB were so close to being good weeks and just slipped away. I’m still very confident in the NFL process long-term and it’s just been two slow weeks. The Saints were about six inches away from picking up a safety on Geno Smith that would have flipped our -3u week to a small winning week. The WFT literally won the box score and didn’t cover +9.5 in one of the worst game-long beats you’ll ever see. The NFL process we just keep moving forward and we’ll get back to early season numbers in no time. CFB was so close. App State and SMU were great weekday reads, the Clemson fade worked again, but the four biggest plays came up short again. UCLA started hot and then just got outplayed by Oregon (although they had a real shot to win late with their starting QB injured and out of the game). Then Iowa State, Alabama, and Oregon State were my three other favorite sides and I bet each of them two different ways and split all three. The Beavs and Tide both covered FG but not 1H and Iowa State hit in the MLP but didn’t cover. If I just bet the Beavs and Tide full game instead of adding the 1Hs the week’s record would be minus less than half a unit instead of 3.5. Obviously, the record is the record and the money lost is the money lost so excuses mean jack shit but what I’m trying to demonstrate with all this is that I’m not way off on my reads, it’s just minor things that are stopping the big breakthrough in CFB. We saw signs of it with the nice winning week over +4u the week before and I’m confident we can get those numbers going again here in the 2H of the season.
I have already bet a lot of games, particularly in CFB, for the weekend so go check my Action account for those plays. But today, I’m just going to be writing up the one weekday CFB game I like and my angle on TNF in the NFL. Then as always, the NFL preview will come out Thursday and the CFB preview will come out Friday with write-ups and full card.
1.5u Troy +18.5 @ Coastal Carolina
The Coastal voodoo magic finally wore off last week and we cashed our App State tickets as they won outright. We have no idea how this Coastal team will respond off of a loss where they no longer control their own destiny to make the Sun Belt Championship Game and effectively ruined their shot at a NY6 bowl game. The Coastal defense has some real flaws that were revealed by App State and this Troy offense is great at protecting the QB and picking up first downs. They will be able to put together long drives with a balanced run/pass attack and keep the ball out of Grayson McCall’s hands. This Troy defense will also be a real test for Coastal. It’ll be the best defense they’ve faced all year and Troy will be able to get them off the field in key 3rd down situations which is how you beat Coastal. I like Troy to keep this thing within two scores wire-to-wire.
1.5u Cardinals PK/Colts +7.5 Teaser
So hopefully people put in this teaser when I released it but if not, here’s the backup plan as this Colts line has moved to a PK at most books. If you still have a +1 with the Colts I would still include them up to 7 in your teaser. Otherwise, I would sub in Minnesota to +8.5 which is my favorite teaser leg this week and will be in my 2u teaser for Sunday. However, it’s the Cardinals’ leg that is on TNF and I like them to stay undefeated here. This is actually a spot I wanted to bet the Packers and fade the overrated Cardinals but on a short week with all their COVID issues I can’t do it (unless the line somehow gets over 7). But with all the COVID issues including no Adams and Lazard, I have to take the Cards in a good spot to win this game at home on a short week. Kyler should be able to run a lot against this Packers D and create explosive plays.
That’s it for the weekday preview! Be back with much more over the next two days for hopefully a big weekend ahead.