NFL YTD: 45-34-3 +10.46u

Well after a small losing Week One, I won five weeks in a row in the NFL and then dropped units the last two weeks so now it’s time to turn back to the winning ways. Last week had a few disgustingly huge spreads but it’s back to a more normal slate this weekend and I have a feeling the dogs will be barking. Favorites had their best week in forever two weeks ago and there were a lot of insanely lopsided matchups last week so now it’s time for the dogs to return. Here are the sides I’m betting this weekend.

Note: for those that missed yesterday’s blog. I bet a Cardinals/Colts teaser for TNF until the Colts line flipped. Now you could play the same teaser the other way (Cardinals/Titans or Cardinals/Vikings). But Cards in a teaser piece is the TNF play.

1.5u Jets +10.5

MIGUEL BLANCOOOOO BABYYYYYY! Mike White has taken over and people are laughing at the Jets but he can’t really be worse than Zach Wilson. If anything, the Jets will change up their game plan some and will maybe give their offense a jolt trying to get Michael Carter and Elijah Moore more involved. The Bengals are now really overvalued after the Jets hate and the Bengals big win over the Ravens outright. The Bengals team is fun but they should not be a double-digit road favorite against anyone in the NFL. I will also be in the building for this game. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS

1.5u Texans +14.5

Tyrod Taylor is expected to be back this week and that makes a huge difference for the Texans. Davis Mills has actually had some decent moments but Tyrod Taylor is built to cover these big spreads. He went 2-0 ATS in his two starts before going out with an injury to start the season. The Rams have played the Giants and Lions back-to-back weeks and I feel like they might be slipping into some cruise control against all of these bad teams and will just stay healthy and escape with a close win.

1.5u 49ers -3.5

I like this still at 4 but there is currently a -3.5 at FanDuel and my local has one as well so shop around. I normally hate backing the 49ers as a favorite and have made a lot of money fading them this year in that spot but this is on the road and a different type of spot. The 49ers have failed to cover four games in a row but they’ve been very close multiple times and I feel like they are now underrated. Shanahan’s creativity offensively should help against the tough Bears defense and they have a top-10 OL to protect against the Bears pass rush. This 49ers defense is really tough and should shut down the inept Bears offense.

1.5u Dolphins +14

Like I said, it’s dog week. This is the NFL and teams don’t really go on runs of not covering 5+ games in a row. The Dolphins have failed to cover 4 in a row and people are in love with this Bills team so the number has just gotten out of control. The one thing that the Dolphins do reasonably well is score TDs when they get to the red zone and stop teams from getting in the red zone defensively which is huge when it comes to these big spreads. Score a couple of TDs and hold the Bills to some field goals.

1.5u Patriots +6

Anything +4.5 or better is good here but snag a 6 if you can. The Chargers were wrecked by the Ravens before the bye and I think Belichick will get a lot of good ideas from that film both in how to stop the Chargers’ offense and how to move the ball against the Chargers’ defense. The Chargers have been awful against the run and the short pass and that’s what Mac Jones has done best in the NFL. He has been really efficient on short routes and the Pats will run the ball well. I think this game is closer to a field goal game and could see the Pats winning outright.

1.5u Jaguars +3.5

The Jags picked up a huge win in London and now had two weeks to enjoy it and get some positive vibes going through the bye. I think this team will be a little bit more competitive the rest of the season and this Seahawks offense has been HORRIFIC with Geno Smith. The Jags defense is good against the rush and they’ll force Geno to throw and I like our odds there. The Seahawks run defense is also awful and James Robinson should have a big day on the ground. This will be a low-scoring grind-it-out game and could come down to a field goal in either direction.

1.5u Vikings +2.5

Normally I save the primetime games for separate write-ups but I already know where I’m going in both games so I’m including them here. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are playing out of control. I know Diggs has all the hype on defense for the Boys but his INT rate is just not sustainable and we saw how the Patriots burned him with a double move late in their last game because he just sells out for the INT every time. Kirk Cousins has been around the block and Justin Jefferson is the type of guy that could humble Diggs. People are in love with this Cowboys team but they are 29th in Y/P on defense and I don’t think they’ll be bale to get stops here. The Vikings defense on the other hand is much more competitive and is 2nd in the league in opponent 3rd down conversion rate. I think they’ll be able to get more stops than the Cowboys defense and the Vikings should win this game.

1.5u Giants +10

I already bet the Jets, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans so why not make it a full pick-five of vomit. Daniel Jones is the road dog god as we all know by now and the Chiefs are a historically bad ATS run but continue to be overvalued. Their offense will be fine long-term but this Giants defense has actually showed signs of being pretty tough. The Giants have also ran the ball well recently and I think they will try to limit possessions and muck this game up because there’s no way they keep up with the Chiefs in a shootout. I expect the Giants to be able to keep it within double digits on MNF.

1u Colts ML (-120)

This is the game of the year for the Colts. They have had a slow start to the season and have already lost to their division rival Titans once this year. If they want to win the division this is an absolute must-win and even to make the playoff as a WC they really need a big win here. Hopefully, Carson Wentz got some confidence from the big win in San Francisco and this Colts offense plays with efficiency. The Colts defense knows the Titans well and after two big emotional wins in a row, I think the Titans could be a little tired and let down some here in a game the Colts need much more.

It’s a big NFL card for me but I will quickly talk about the rest of the games that I don’t have a side bet on.

Steelers/Browns- The Steelers could be a play here but the Browns have so many injury issues that I’m waiting for this to pan out until Sunday morning. If Baker and some other guys go and this line moves in the Browns’ direction then the Steelers might be a play, otherwise, I’m just staying away from this mess.

Panthers/Falcons- Panthers or nothing here. The Falcons laying points is gross but I think this game is a true coinflip and one team could have a late score to win by 4-7 points so I’m staying away.

Eagles/Lions- I’m throwing the Eagles in a MLP here. I think the Lions are tough and could cover this number at +3.5 but the Eagles desperately need a win to keep any hope alive in this season and they’ve played a really tough schedule so I think they’ll be happy to face a really bad Lions team.

Bucs/Saints- I think the best angle here is the under. The Saints played well against Brady in the regular season last year but I don’t think the Saints will really be able to score so I think the Bucs could win by 7-8. If anything I think this game stays low.

WFT/Broncos- This one is gross. Don’t like betting Teddy as a favorite but think the WFT could be deflated after that game last week. I guess if you’re forced at gunpoint to pick just take the points but I’m staying far away here.

FULL CARD

2u Vikings +8.5/Panthers +9 teaser

1.5u Cardinals PK/Colts +7.5 teaser

1.5u Jets +10.5

1.5u Texans +14.5

1.5u 49ers -3.5

1.5u Dolphins +14

1.5u Chiefs/Eagles MLP

1.5u Patriots +6

1.5u Jags +3.5

1u Colts ML (-120)

1.5u Vikings +2.5

1.5u Giants +10

Biggest NFL card of the year. Let’s have a weekend.