CFB YTD: 69-61-2 -1.32u
Troy gave us a great start to the week last night in the only weekday play of the card. This Saturday is an amazing slate of games and there is a ton of good action to take advantage of. I am going to write up all the marquee matchups that I know people love to bet and then give out the rest of the card at the end.
Michigan @ Michigan State (+4) o/u 50.5
This is the biggest in-state Michigan rivalry game in years. These two teams are undefeated heading into the last weekend of October and the winner of this game will be set up for a big matchup with Ohio State to decide the Big Ten East and have a shot at the College Football Playoff. Both of these teams are run-heavy offenses and Michigan has the superior run defense. Also, from a pure eye-test perspective, I have just seen a lot more from Michigan to make me think they are the real deal. Everyone wants to back Sparty in this spot but if I know the college football gods, they will keep Michigan undefeated until the Ohio State game so they can get their hearts broken even harder.
Pick: 2u Michigan -4, 1u 1H u24.5
Texas @ Baylor (-2.5) o/u 61.5
This Baylor team is really, really good. At halftime of the Texas/Oklahoma game, it looked like Texas really was back and they could legit have a shot at the playoff this year. Then Caleb Williams came in and broke their hearts and they followed it up the next week by blowing another huge lead against Oklahoma State. They now sit at 4-3 and are underdogs this week. So if you were wondering if Texas was back… they’re staring a .500 record in the face. Baylor’s defense is 18th in Y/P and should be able to limit this Texas offense. Baylor offensively has a great OL and running attack and they should control this game and find a way to win.
Pick: 1.5u Baylor -2.5
Georgia @ Florida (+14.5) o/u 51
Both teams are off the bye and I think that helps Florida more than Georgia. Georgia is obviously on a roll this season whereas Florida suffered a bad outright loss to LSU before the bye. I think the time off will help Florida refocus and come up with a great offensive game plan for Anthony Richardson instead of Emory Jones. It has taken a long time but it seems like Dan Mullen finally gets what everybody else has seen for weeks. AR15 can cause some serious problems for this Georgia defense and I think Florida will be able to move the ball more effectively than anyone has against Georgia this year. Stetson Bennett is starting for Georgia and if you think back to last year, Stetson seemed like a great story and everyone loved him then he proceeded to go 5/16 for 78 yards and an INT against Florida and got benched in Georgia’s blowout loss. I think he will feel a ton of pressure going into Jacksonville where he was killed last year and we probably end up seeing JT Daniels in this game (which worries me some). This is also huge backdoor potential late if necessary, try to get the hook if you can.
Pick: 1.5u Florida +14.5, 1u o50.5
Ole Miss @ Auburn (-3) o/u 66.5
I have not seen a single person on the Rebels here. If you know me, you know I’m going down swinging with my Rebs. Guess what? Everyone was on Tennessee against the Rebs too. Everyone was on LSU ATS and sprinkling ML last week and the Rebs covered that one too. All this team does is take care of business and find ways to win. Matt Corral is not 100% but I would still take 80% Matt Corral over 100% Bo Nix. I also love getting Ole Miss at these short underdog lines because of the number of times we have seen an Ole Miss game come down to a 2-point conversion to win and a team wins by 1 or 2 points (we saw it in the Arkansas game a couple of weeks ago). Give me the points and let me ride the Lane Train until it crashes.
Pick: 1.5u Ole Miss +3
Penn State @ Ohio State (-18) o/u 61
Ohio State is on fire. They are the second-best team in the country in my opinion and I would honestly bet them against Georgia the way both teams are playing right now (I think Georgia needs JT Daniels to compete with Ohio State). The Buckeyes have covered 4 in a row as favorites of -48.5, -15.5, -21.5, and -21.5, and the covers have not even been relatively close. CJ Stroud is playing out of his mind and the Ohio State defense is starting to play much better. Penn State lost their stud DT and it showed how huge of a loss it was when Illinois ran for over 350 yards against them. Sean Clifford is clearly hurt and is no longer able to use his mobility. James Franklin already has his bags packed for USC and this Penn State team is shot. Buckeyes win big here. I haven’t put a play through on Action yet because I’m hoping to have the line drop below 18 but anything under 20 this thing is a 2u play for me so keep an eye out but if it stays here all day I’ll be playing the 18.
Pick: 2u Ohio State -18
1.5u Baylor -2.5
1.5u Cincy 1H -13.5
1u Iowa ML +145
2u Michigan -4
1u Michigan/MSU u24.5 1H
1.5u Minnesota/Iowa State MLP (-124)
1.5u Florida State +10
1.5u Florida +14.5
1u Florida/UGA o50.5
1.5u Oklahoma TT o43
1u Colorado +24.5
1u Wyoming/SJSU u41
1u Western Kentucky -17.5
1.5u Miss State +2
1.5u Ole Miss +3
1.5u UNC +3.5
1u Stanford ML (-130)
That’s the card! It’s a big one but I love the slate this weekend. Let’s cash and get up big on the season.