NFL YTD: 51-40-3 (56.04%) +10.2u
It’s been a pretty bleh couple of weeks in the NFL. We had a few winning weeks in a row, one really bad week that cut into the season-long profit, then just kind of pushed around money the past couple of weeks. Last week was really close to being a big winner but a couple of things didn’t break our way and we came out relatively even. I love the board this week and think it’s going to be a great momentum starter heading into the back half of the season.
TNF: 1.5u Jets (+10.5) @ Colts
Happy Mike White Day to all those who celebrate. Is what the Jets did last week sustainable? No. But luckily they don’t need to Bengals outright again. They just need to cover double digits against Carson Wentz on a short week. The Jets will be coming into this game with the most confidence they’ve had all season while the Colts are coming off a heartbreaker in OT to their division rivals which effectively ruined their chances at winning the division. I normally would like to bet the team that just lost as favorites against the team that just won outright as dogs but in this spot, I think the Jets can run the ball well and play good enough defense to keep this thing close.
1.5u Falcons +6 @ Saints
It looks like Taysom Hill is going to start this game for the Saints but his health won’t be 100%. I’m happy fading that QB as a favorite against a division rival. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense are quietly playing much better football and I think they can take this thing down to the wire.
1.5u Bengals -2.5 vs. Browns
I’m buying back on the Bengals here. I think they bounce back after the tough loss to the Jets and find a way to win at home. Stefanski is yet to cover a regular-season game against a divisional opponent and with the injury issues and OBJ distractions I think the Browns still need some time before I’m ready to back them again. Roll Burreaux.
1.5u Broncos +10 @ Cowboys
Teddy Two Gloves as a double-digit dog against a team that’s undefeated ATS this season? It’s almost too good to be true. Dak is going to start but won’t be at 100% and I would be shocked if they kept Dak in late if they’re up double digits. The Broncos still have a ton of weapons on defense without Von Miller and I think they actually get up for this to prove they can still compete.
1.5u Texans +6 @ Dolphins
Tyrod is finally starting. I got screwed last week thinking Tyrod would start and grabbing the Texans at +14.5, turns out he didn’t start so the line inflated to +16.5, and the game landed on 16. Just horrific. Well he’s back this week for real and I think he’s worth a few points, especially in a position as a big dog. The Dolphins are just awful and should not be favorites of 6 against anyone.
1.5u Chiefs ML (-116) vs. Packers
Well as you all know by now this line is long gone. I honestly just got lucky here having this be one of the bets I got in early. I would not lay the number over 7 so if you want in on the Chiefs, keep it to a MLP or teaser spot.
1.5u 49ers +1 vs. Cardinals
This game ended 17-10 Cardinals in Arizona the first time these teams met. It was also Trey Lance’s first career start. The Cardinals’ offense was totally shut down by the 49ers’ defense and they have historically had great success against Kyler. I think they shut them down again. Hopkins and Kyler are both dealing with serious injury issues and I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them are held out or end up leaving the game early. AJ Green is also out with COVID. The 49ers’ offense will be much better prepared this time around and should run the ball effectively with JJ Watt no longer on that line. 49ers win at home and get their season going.
2u Rams -1.5/Browns +8.5 teaser
The Titans have won 3 HUGE games in a row against the Bills, Chiefs, and their division rival Colts. I think they finally come back to earth here against a Rams team that is playing unbelievably well. Stafford and co. should put up huge numbers and this Titans offense won’t be the same without Derrick Henry. Like I said, I think the Bengals win the game but the Browns are a prime teaser piece so I’m sliding them in here through all key numbers with a low total.
2u 49ers +7.5/Chiefs -1.5 teaser
Already discussed both of these. Only use the 49ers if you can get them at 7 or better. Otherwise, use Rams again.
1u Giants +9/Eagles +7.5 teaser
Small because I could see both sides potentially losing by double digits but both perfectly fit the Wong model.
Let’s have a great week, be back with CFB tomorrow.