YTD: 78-71-3 -6.52u
Well, last Saturday was another big step back for the season total. Luckily weekday winners both last week and this week kept the number in single digits but we are now in a hole heading into the final stretch of the season. However, the last two seasons I have caught fire late in the season and dominated Championship Week/Bowl Season. I am way more disappointed in this season than any of you guys could be and believe me when I say I could not have put more effort into handicapping these games, I just have never been able to find a rhythm. Any good week has been followed by a step back. I am still going to do everything in my power to piece together a few winning weeks late and try to make it a profitable season overall. I like the card a lot this weekend, so let’s get into it. I’m going to write up the marquee matchups that I have a 1.5u+ play on and then share the full card at the end. Thanks to those that have continued to support. Let’s have a Saturday.
1.5u UNC -2.5 vs. Wake Forest
I think Wake finally takes a loss here. They have had some close calls this season and from a pure talent perspective, UNC is the better team. If Sam Howell and this UNC team bring their A-game they should win and control the game. In this game last year, Sam Howell threw for 550 yards and 6 TDs and UNC had 742 yards of offense to go along with 59 points. Both offenses should succeed but I don’t think Wake will be able to get a single spot. Heels get a big win and keep their longshot ACC title hopes alive.
1.5u Liberty +10 @ Ole Miss
I would play this at +8.5 or better. Ole Miss has gotten battered the past few weeks with an insanely tough schedule. They have a lot of players out with injuries and Matt Corral is not close to 100%. Between the Hugh Freeze revenge factor and Liberty playing a road game at an SEC stadium, this is effectively their Super Bowl. For Ole Miss, they are still fighting for bowl positioning and have a few big SEC games left to close the season so I think they take this week as a relative bye and try to get healthy. Ole Miss D will struggle to get stops and Willis will take advantage of the national stage. Liberty is 2-0 ATS as dogs this year.
1u Purdue +3 vs. Sparty, 1u u54
Purdue is ready to play spoiler again. After taking down Iowa, it’s Sparty’s turn to head to Purdue in a HUGE let down spot after beating Michigan last week. Nailor is expected to miss this game which should make Sparty totally one-dimensional. Granted, Kenneth Walker III is an insane one dimension to have but I think Purdue will be up to the task of slowing him down and Purdue will be able to move the ball through the air on Michigan State like Michigan was able to do last week. Splitting my bet with the under as the only way I see Purdue not winning the game is if they really sputter out offensively. Purdue has gone under in 7 of 8 games this year.
1.5u Nebraska +15 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State still has some major defensive issues that have gone unresolved and Nebraska will be able to take advantage of that. Nebraska has been really competitive this year despite their record. All 6 of their losses have been by one possession including a 7-point loss @ Oklahoma, a 3-point OT loss @ Michigan State, and a 3-point loss to Michigan. This team can’t quite find ways to win but they have gone wire-to-wire with 3 top-10 teams this season and I think they do it again here.
1.5u Washington +7.5 vs. Oregon
This is the classic Oregon/PAC-12 implosion spot. Oregon got a favorable ranking in the first CFP rankings and it looks like they should make the playoff if they win out. Well… now they have to go to Washington, one of the hardest places to play in the country, in primetime, and beat the Huskies in a game that if Washington wins, they will actually control their own destiny to make the PAC-12 Championship Game. Oregon is 0-6 ATS as favorites this year and has had a few close shaves in conference. I think Washington keeps this thing close and I may end up adding some ML here.
1.5u Army/Air Force u37.5– auto-bet on service academy under
1.5u UNC -2.5
1u Missouri +39– number just too high. Missou should piece together a couple of drives and UGA no reason to run it up late.
1.5u Liberty +10
1.5u Nebraska +15
1.5u Memphis +4.5– flat spot for Memphis after deflating loss last week. Memphis should score at will and keep up.
1u Purdue +3
1u MSU/Purdue u54
1.5u Cincy -22.5– it’s finally time for style points
1u WKU -15.5– keep riding the Zappe Hour train
1u Maryland +10.5– Taulia should put up big numbers. Penn State season dead.
1u Texas A&M -4.5– Aggies playing great since Bama win and off a bye. Road Bo Nix off a big win, let down.
1.5u Miss State +5.5– Cowbell offense playing great, should come down to last possession.
1.5u FSU +3 (-120)– try to get a 3. NC State not impressed me much and FSU playing really well of late.
2u Clemson/Baylor MLP– Clemson keeps finding ways to win and I think they roll through rest of season with positive momentum. Baylor playing great and will be too much O for TCU’s horrible D without Gary.
1u Tennessee PK– Kentucky banged up everywhere and seem dead. Vawls off a bye and got healthy, should be too much O.
1u UTEP +11– too many points in the Super Bowl. Miners continue to be cash.
1.5u Washington +7.5
Great day to have a day.