NFL YTD: 57-46-3 +6.72u
CFB YTD: 91-83-5 -6.03u
Well it has not been the season I would have hoped for in any respect but as we reach the final couple of weeks of the CFB season and move through the second half of the NFL season, we are sitting at a small profit for football overall. I am still very hopeful for a strong push through November and December and CFB actually did end up plus a few units for last week thanks to a perfect weekday slate. Unfortunately, we gave it right back in the NFL on Sunday. Hopefully, we can piece together a weekend where we actually win big in both, I like both slates a lot this weekend so hopefully, this is our shot. I have multiple angles I like in Thursday Night CFB and one I like for TNF in the NFL so I wanted to get this piece out along with the recap then the normal previews for the whole week will be out late Thursday/Friday.
Pitt vs. UNC (+6.5) o/u 72
This is a big game for the ACC Coastal. If Pitt wins they will be in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal, but if UNC pulls off the upset then we will have Pitt at 4-2, UVA at 4-2, Miami at 3-2, and UNC at 4-3 which would set up a crazy final couple weeks in the Coastal. UNC is coming off a huge win against Wake Forest last week while Pitt is coming off a stomping of Duke. Let’s start with the obvious, Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett are two of the best QBs in the country and these two offenses should both be able to score almost every single drive. I know it almost seems too easy but I’m rolling with the big over here. Pitt might not get stopped a single time by UNC and Sam Howell will get his. I think this could be a 45-40 type of game. I also think Pitt will win this game. I think they probably cover the full game number but I’m more comfortable rolling with Pitt in a MLP in a game with massive back door potential late, especially after all the weird shit we saw in UNC/Wake last week.
My third and final angle on this game is the first half. Sam Howell has famously been a second-half QB and even more specifically a 4th quarter QB during his tenure at UNC. Wake was up 31-24 at half and 48-34 at the end of the 3rd last week and UNC scored 24 points in the 4th to come back and win. They also scored 28 in the 4th to come back against Wake the year before. UNC has trailed Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Florida State, Georgia Tech (!), Virginia, and Virginia Tech at halftime this year, all by 4+ points. That’s 6 out of 9 games they trailed by 4+ at halftime and 2 of the 3 they led at halftime were against Georgia State and Duke where they were massive favorites. Miami is the only of their 9 games where they played a better first half than second half. Pitt on the other hand led big at halftime last week, led Clemson by 7 at half, led GA Tech by 28 at half, led VT by 21 at half, led Tennessee by 7 at half. They have led by 7+ at halftime of all 7 of their wins this year. Pitt is going to take this game extremely seriously and I think they put up 28 in the first half and have a comfortable lead at the break. Bonus: these teams last faced in 2019 with the same QBs and HCs and Pitt won the game by 7 and led by 7 at halftime.
Picks: 1u o73, 1.5u Pitt 1H -3.5, 1.5u Pitt/OK State/Oregon State MLP (+107)
Ravens @ Dolphins (+7.5) o/u 46
I think this game is a route. This seems like a typical Harbaugh blowout spot after an ATS loss for the Ravens and a SU and ATS win for the Fins but on TNF I don’t want too much exposure. If you have to pick a side it’s Ravens or nothing for me, but I’m sticking with the teaser in a game I can’t see the Ravens losing. They are one of my favorites legs and I’m including them in a 2u teaser with the Browns to get them over a TD against the Pats. The Browns have proven they can succeed with any running back so the Chubb COVID doesn’t scare me and Baker had the game of his life with OBJ gone. I think Baker is playing with a chip and the Browns are being underrated here so I love them over a TD.
Pick: 2u Ravens -1.5/Browns +7.5 teaser
That’s it for Thursday night! Much more to come later!