Here we go. Pitt took care of business last night to make it a winning Thursday night and we have some momentum coming into the weekend. This is the most 2u+ plays I’ve had in weeks and I couldn’t be more excited. I have just my 3rd 3-unit of the season and two 2-unit plays as well. This could truly be the weekend that turns our season around. Let’s just get right into it.
Friday Night Lights: 1.5u Cincy -23 @ South Florida
Friday Night Lights has been good to us. Cincy has been bad to us. But I can’t quit them. South Florida is a truly horrific football team and I think Cincy finally finds their groove again and gets the blowout they desperately need for playoff contention.
3u Michigan ML (-105) @ Penn State
Here we go… Harbaugh in a huge game? What could go wrong. I just think Michigan is on another level than Penn State. Penn State has been run all over in recent weeks and Michigan is one of the best rushing teams in the nation. James Franklin seems checked out since Iowa loss and USC rumors started. 7th rush offense vs 94th rush defense. Michigan defense ranks higher in most categories than Penn State offense. I think Michigan wins this game and it could turn into a blowout.
2u Baylor +6 vs. Oklahoma
This reminds me of the Baylor/Oklahoma game in 2019 where both teams were fighting for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game and potentially the playoff. It was a similar number to this and also in Waco. Oklahoma won the 2H 24-0 to win the game by 3. I think this game will be similarly as tight and Oklahoma might sneak out the late W but it will come down to the wire. Baylor is a different animal at home (5-0 ATS, 5-0 SU) and has beaten Texas, BYU, and WVU in their L3 home games. Oklahoma on the other hand has been much worse on the road with a 1-3 ATS road record. Baylor D should limit Caleb Williams and have success on the ground offensively.
2u South Carolina ML (-105)
South Carolina coming off a huge win over Florida and I think they keep momentum rolling rather than let down. They finally found their QB in Jason Brown and their defense has some absolute dudes. SC has found ways to win their 3 close games this year against Vandy, ECU, and Troy. Mizzou has been incredibly disappointing with their only cover all season coming in a 37-point loss to Georgia last week as 40.5-point favorites in a game Georgia stopped trying in late. This Mizzou team is lifeless and I think SC is starting to build a culture. Cocks win the Columbia Bowl.
1.5u Cincy -23
3u Michigan ML (-105)
2u Baylor +6
1u UCONN +41- Garbage Pick #1, Clemson with two incredibly lucky covers in a row. Don’t think they can score 42.
1.5u UCF +7.5- UCF starting to play good football and SMU season off the rails. Gus trying to build something in his first season and finish strong whereas SMU season over.
1u New Mexico State +51.5- Garbage Pick #2, This is Bama’s rest game before the end of the season push. Should rest starters most of 2H. NMSU has been good against the number (5-0 ATS on the road)
1.5u Miss State +6.5- Miss State playing well, covered 4 of their last 5. Auburn coming off demoralizing loss to TAMU that effectively ended their season.
1u Western Kentucky -18.5- Just keep backing the Toppers. Maybe the best offense in the nation. They have covered 3 of their L4 all in the range of -13.5 to -19.5 so the same number as this. Keep it coming Zappe Hour.
1.5u GA State +10- Grayson McCall out again for Coastal and have failed to cover 2 of their L3. GA State playing good ball, covered 4 straight games.
1.5u Ohio State -20.5- Going against the huge public dog in Purdue. People have seen Purdue play spoiler on Iowa and then Michigan State just last week and want to back them. Buckeyes are a different beast and should put up a big offensive number.
2u SC ML (-105)
1u TAMU ML (-130)- Texas A&M all the sudden one of the last teams with a playoff shot. If they win out and Bama drop one to Auburn or Arkansas then A&M would make the SEC Championship Game. Ole Miss obviously a lot to play for still but they just seem beaten down. This offense isn’t anywhere close to what we saw early in the season- Liberty should have covered or even won the game based on box score. A&M defense playing nearly flawless football since Bama win.
1u Kansas +30.5- Garbage Pick #3, Last two home games for Kansas they covered against Oklahoma and were in the game SU until late in the game and missed the cover against KSU by the hook. Texas has failed to cover four straight, ever since the OK loss they are a different team.
1.5u Nevada +3- Nevada 3-1 ATS on the road and 3-0 ATS as dogs. SDSU has failed to cover 3 of their L4 and their offense is pathetic. Carson Strong game incoming.
1.5u LSU 1H (+0.5)- Hogs failed to cover 4 of their L5 FG. Hogs have trailed at HT in their last 4 conference games. LSU playing hard for Coach O since news of his firing and he is coaching balls to the wall with crazy defensive schemes that could bother Hogs early.
That’s it! This is our weekend people!!!