WE FINALLY DID IT! We had a big week in both college football and the NFL for the first time all year. Let’s start with CFB. I have been promising that this weekend was coming all year and finally did it. It has definitely taken a toll on me struggling so much throughout the season but I stayed committed to my process, told you guys to stick with me, and it paid off. I knew how much I loved that board and put it all on the line and it paid off. I want to thank everybody sincerely that stuck around and continued to support because it helped keep me motivated to put together a weekend like last one. I see the pageviews on here so I know people are still coming to me for picks and write-ups and I don’t take that responsibility lightly. There are only two weeks left in the regular season, then we have Championship Weekend, and Bowl SZN. Historically, I have thrived in Bowl SZN and Championship Weekend so I am confident we can keep this positive momentum rolling and put up a good end-of-season number. Secondly, it was nice to finally add a good NFL Sunday (and MNF winner) to a good Saturday. We had split Saturday and Sunday so many times this year that it was nice to come into this week feeling as good as I could feel. Now, enough with the self-sucking because last week is officially over and means jack shit now. It’s time to focus on MACtion and putting together a great card for this weekend. Let’s commence.
Tuesday- 1u Toledo -7 @ Ohio
The Rockets are only one win away from bowl eligibility and they’ll look to wrap that up here. That is a huge motivational factor for teams in these final two weeks if both teams are eliminated from conference championship play like these two are. Ohio has committed itself to the run in recent weeks which has helped their bad offense a bit, but this Toledo D is the best run D in the MAC and I think they will stifle Ohio. Toledo also has a really well balanced offense that should be able to dominate Ohio, particularly on the ground against Ohio’s 121st ranked rush D. Toledo’s only struggles offensively are protecting the QB and scoring TDs in the red zone. Luckily, Ohio’s defense is 126th in sacks and 129th in red-zone D so I think Toledo will be just fine in those categories. This is just a major talent mismatch and Toledo is the only team with a real motivation to pick up a W. Rockets big.
Tuesday- 1u Bowling Green +17 @ Miami (OH)
BGSU has been an elite ATS team this year and specifically are 5-0 ATS as road dogs this season. They were able to hang around in recent weeks @ Buffalo and @ Northern Illinois and I think they can do the same here. One thing this BGSU offense does well is score TDs when they get in the red zone. They are 16th in the nation in red-zone efficiency while the Miami defense is 104th in stopping teams in the red zone. This is essential to hang around as a big dog which is why BGSU has done it so well this season. BGSU also has the 30th ranked pass defense in the nation so they should be able to limit Gabbert and force Miami to be more methodical and slow the game down a bit. Miami will also be playing for the division next week against Kent State no matter what the result is here so they should be pretty flat.
The other Tuesday game is EMU/WMU and I think that will be a good live-trading game like we had last week between Kent State and CMU where we were able to get + money MLs and +7.5 on both sides. I’m going to hope WMU scores first and we can get EMU at a big live number and then flip the other way. Keep an eye out on Twitter and notifications in the Action app for those live plays.
Wednesday- 1u Buffalo 1H (+0.5) vs. NIU
NIU has not led at halftime of any of their past 3 games. They have had some really slow starts and then just find ways to win games late but 1 or 2 points. I don’t want to go against them winning because of that horseshoe up the ass luck but I think Buffalo will be in this game the whole way and probably leading for a lot of it. Buffalo needs to win their final two games to become bowl eligible while NIU is feeling comfortable atop their division. I think Buffalo will come out with something to prove in this game and jump to an early lead. They have by a lot of metrics actually one of, if not the best, team in the MAC and have just not found ways to win games. They are really balanced on both sides of the ball and I think they put it all together here and get a W but I’m more confident in the 1H tie or better.
I’m staying away from CMCH and Ball State on Wednesday. I think it is a true coinflip and both teams have strong motivation, Ball for their 6th win and bowl eligibility, and CMCH is still in the race for the MAC.
As of now I’m also not playing anything in Thursday Night or Friday Night college football but I will update y’all if that changes.
In the NFL, we have Pats/Falcons TNF and I actually see some value in the Falcons as home dogs of 7+ on a short week after the Pats have been crowned #BACK, but I’m staying away. TNF has been so gross the past few weeks that I don’t really want to touch this. If the Falcons get up over 8 maybe it’s worth a unit but I really don’t want to play it. However, I do have a few plays in for Saturday and Sunday so go check the app for those! Let’s have another great week, people.