December 16-17 Slate
BOWL SZN IS HERE.
It really is the most wonderful time of the year. There is football almost every single day from Friday the 16th through January 2nd. There will be epic matchups, playoff games, and absolutely horrific football. The best part, we will bet on every single part of it. I am going to have five different bowl previews over the next several weeks to cover every. single. game. of Bowl SZN. For this preview, I will just be covering the opening weekend as Friday and Saturday have a pretty loaded slate.
The biggest storyline throughout Bowl SZN is motivation. 90% of these games will come down to how many guys opt out, who cares about winnings the game, and external factors like that. That is why why we see insane line movement in a lot of these games. Make sure you are following me in the Action app to get immediate notifications when I post a play because there is a good chance that it is because of some incoming line movement.
When writing these previews, I will write what play I have already made and if the line has moved significantly I will also give my take on what to do if you didn’t get that early line. Now without further ado, let’s get into these games.
Bahamas Bowl- Miami (OH) vs. UAB (-11) o/u 44.5
This is just a perfect start to bowl season. Two 6-6 teams going to battle in the Bahamas at 11:30 AM est. Miami (OH) is missing its starting quarterback and UAB looks to impress its new head football coach, Trent Dilfer. Miami will really miss their QB, Brett Gabbert. He announced that he is transferring and will not be playing in this bowl game. Aveon Smith will be starting for Miami and he has been very inconsistent in action this year.
UAB running back DeWayne McBride will be by far the best player on the field. I think the UAB offense will cruise against this Miami defense. MAC defenses historically struggle in bowl games because their talent level is just a step below the rest. However, I do think Aveon Smith will be able to put up 17-20 points for Miami. Then UAB will be able to push this total way over the number.
Pick: 1u o44.5
Cure Bowl- UTSA vs. Troy (-2) o/u 55.5
This should be the best game of this slate. Troy is legit an awesome team and they proved it against Coastal. Grayson McCall carried Coastal to the conference championship game and then Troy’s defense just eviscerated him. This Troy team has an insanely tough defense and they can score when they have to. On the other side, Frank Harris and the UTSA offense is one of the most exciting in the country.
Overall, I think Troy is the better team. They have eviscerated opponents on a regular basis whereas UTSA has scraped by a lot of the season. I think Troy gets it done here.
Pick: 1.5u Troy ML (-113)
Fenway Bowl- Cincy vs. Louisville (-1.5) o/u 41.5
This is maybe the most sicko game of Bowl SZN. Louisville’s head coach just left them to be the head coach at Cincy instead. This game is at Fenway Park and the stadium is set up so that both teams are on the same sideline. Both teams are on their backup quarterbacks for this game. All of this is setting up for MADNESS. That is why I am rolling with the under. I got it at a better number but I still like it above 40. Let’s just enjoy the sickoness.
Pick: 1u Cincy/Louisville u44.5
Las Vegas Bowl- Florida vs. Oregon State (-10.5) o/u 53
This line jumped a lot after Anthony Richardson decided to opt out for the draft. Florida has had other key players opt-out as well and this game should mean a lot more to Oregon State. I bet this somewhat early on at -7.5 but I would still bet it for less at the current number. Damien Martinez should run for 500 yards against this team.
Pick: 2u Oregon State -7.5
LA Bowl- Washington State vs. Fresno State (-3.5) o/u 53.5
Fresno State is awesome. Jake Haener came back from injury halfway through the season and this team has been on fire ever since. We cashed our conference future and an extra bet in the conference championship game on this team and now I want more. Wazzou has some weapons but I think Fresno State rolls here. I got them early as well but I would take the current number (but buy to -120 for a 3 if you can).
Pick: 1.5u Fresno State ML (-110)
LendingTree Bowl- Rice vs. Southern Miss (-6.5) o/u 46.5
The fightin’ Frank Gores!!! I think Rice stinks. Southern Miss is the better team here and they are someone I have liked to back all year. They should comfortably win by a touchdown here.
Pick: 2u Southern Miss -5.5
New Mexico Bowl- BYU vs. SMU (-5.5) o/u 64.5
BYU is a tough team. Their defense has been painful to watch but they have also been super banged up all year. I think some time to get healthy will do them good and they will be ready to compete here. No Jaren Hall certainly hurts for BYU but I think their offense will be fine against this bad SMU defense.
Pick: 1.5u BYU +5.5
Frisco Bowl- North Texas vs. Boise State (-10.5) o/u 59
This game should be fun. I think we get a lot of points here. Boise State should be ready to bounce back after a bad performance in their conference championship. North Texas is NOT good defensively. I think both of these teams should move the ball up and down the field but ultimately Boise will take over and win this in a convincing fashion.
Picks: 1u Boise State -10.5, 1u o58.5
That’s it, folks! The next preview will come out the morning of December 19th before UConn’s return to Bowl SZN that afternoon. And as always…